Do preseason college football rankings predict the national champion?
Ohio State opened the 2026 preseason USA Today Coaches Poll at No. 1 with 38 first-place votes. Every August the same question resurfaces: does starting at No. 1 mean anything for who wins it in January?
Short answer: Historically, no. Since the Playoff began in 2014, only Alabama in 2017 has opened preseason No. 1 and won the title — an 8% hit rate across 12 seasons.
The historical track record, 2014-2025
| Season | Preseason AP No. 1 | National champion | Won it? |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | Florida State | Ohio State | No |
| 2015 | Ohio State | Alabama | No |
| 2016 | Alabama | Clemson | No |
| 2017 | Alabama | Alabama | Yes |
| 2018 | Alabama | Clemson | No |
| 2019 | Clemson | LSU | No |
| 2020 | Clemson | Alabama | No |
| 2021 | Alabama | Georgia | No |
| 2022 | Alabama | Georgia | No |
| 2023 | Georgia | Michigan | No |
| 2024 | Georgia | Ohio State | No |
| 2025 | Texas | Indiana | No |
Where the futures market disagrees with the poll
| Team | Poll rank | Kalshi implied % |
|---|---|---|
| Ohio State | 1 | 12% |
| Oregon | 2 | 11% |
| Georgia | 3 | 10% |
| Texas | 4 | 12% |
| Notre Dame | 5 | 13% |
FAQ
- Does the preseason No. 1 team usually win it?
- No. Only Alabama's 2017 team has done it since the Playoff began.
Sources
📱 Compare how the same college football futures are priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.