Fed Williams rate hike December 2026: the New York Fed chief says more increases are likely, and January hike odds ease to about 59% on Kalshi and Polymarket
Williams spoke at a University of California, Berkeley alumni event in New York, Reuters reported. "The economy is strong, labor market continues to strengthen, and inflation is persistent," he said, adding that the Fed has work to do to get monetary policy to the right place and will need to act over time to return inflation to 2%. The federal funds target range is 3.75% to 4%. BetG8 has covered the rise in January hike odds in several reports this week; this one looks at what the vice chair of the rate-setting committee added and where prices stand now.
What the market is pricing
Prices are from BetG8's live Fed rate decision odds page, which reads Polymarket and Kalshi every five minutes, stamped 10:58 UTC on November 13. The earlier read was taken by our macro desk at 03:42 UTC, about four hours after Williams spoke.
| Decision | Polymarket now | Kalshi now | 03:42 UTC read (PM / Kalshi) |
|---|---|---|---|
| December: 25 bp hike | 88.5% | 88.5% | 88.5% / 85.5% |
| December: 50+ bp hike | 9.2% | 10.5% | 9.7% / 10.5% |
| December: no change | 2.6% | 3.5% | n/a |
| January: 25 bp hike | 59.5% | 58.5% | 62.5% / 62.0% |
| January: no change | 39.0% | 36.5% | n/a |
| January: 50+ bp hike | 1.1% | 2.5% | n/a |
Two things stand out. First, the venues now agree on December: Kalshi's quarter-point price rose three points to match Polymarket at 88.5%, and adding the 50 bp row puts a hike of some size at 97.7% on Polymarket and 99.0% on Kalshi. Second, January gave back about three points on each venue overnight. Williams confirmed the direction of policy but offered nothing on pace, and a market that had climbed from roughly a coin flip on Tuesday to 62% by Thursday night eased rather than extending its climb. January is still priced as more likely than not.
What Williams said, and what he did not
The substance was direction without a timetable. Beyond the comments on the economy, Williams addressed the cost of living, saying the Fed influences the rate of change in prices rather than the price level, and that trying to reverse past increases would cause "huge distortions and damage to the economy." InvestingLive noted that he made no commitment to a specific move in December and that, as a permanent voter, his view carries weight.
The contrast with a month ago is clear. In a Bloomberg interview on October 13, as summarized by investingLive, Williams said he currently saw no reason to think the Fed would need to do more in 2027, while allowing that the outlook could change. Since then the October CPI report showed prices up 0.4% on the month and core prices up 0.3%, both above forecasts.
A committee debating pace, not direction
Williams was not the only official leaning toward tightening this week. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee called it a "precarious moment," saying price pressures have spread into services and healthcare. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said her bias remains toward further tightening and described rising bond yields as "most welcome" because they are already restraining financial conditions, according to ActionForex. The open question is size. Governor Christopher Waller has said a 50 basis point hike could be on the table for December, while Cleveland's Beth Hammack favors smaller, steadier steps. Prediction markets side with the gradual camp for now, with the larger December move near 10%.
Bond markets have moved with the rhetoric. Reuters reported that the 10-year Treasury yield reached a three-week high of 5.1433% and the 2-year a one-month high of 4.8920% in early Asian trading on Friday, and that CME FedWatch showed a 14.5% chance of a half-point December hike, up from zero a week earlier.
What to watch next
The FOMC meets on December 8 and 9. Before then, incoming inflation data and further Fed speeches will show whether "over time" means one hike or several. Watch the gap between the December 50 bp contract and FedWatch, and whether January holds above 50% on both venues. Our Kalshi vs Polymarket comparison tracks any split between them.
Method and limits
Prices come from BetG8's live page, which reads the public Polymarket Gamma API and Kalshi trade API every five minutes, stamped 10:58 UTC on November 13, 2026. The combined hike figure adds the 25 bp and 50+ bp rows. Williams' remarks are from Reuters; other officials' comments are from ActionForex and investingLive. Treasury yields and FedWatch figures are as reported by Reuters early Friday and were not re-read. These are market prices, not predictions, and not forecasts by BetG8.
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Frequently asked questions
What did Fed Williams say about rate hikes?
On November 12, 2026, New York Fed President John Williams said interest rates will likely need to rise further to bring inflation down. He did not give the timing or size of the next increase.
What are the odds of a Fed rate hike in December 2026?
At 10:58 UTC on November 13, 2026, a 25 basis point hike at the December 9 decision was 88.5% on both Polymarket and Kalshi, and a hike of 50 basis points or more was 9.2% and 10.5%. These are market prices, not predictions.
What are the odds of a Fed rate hike in January 2027?
At the same read, a 25 basis point hike in January was 59.5% on Polymarket and 58.5% on Kalshi, down from 62.5% and 62.0% at 03:42 UTC.
Sources
- Reuters via Investing.com, Fed's Williams says central bank has work to do to get inflation back on target
- investingLive, Fed's Williams says inflation stubbornly high and Fed still has work to do on policy
- investingLive, Three Fed officials signal inflation fight continues; Williams sees no 2027 hike (October 13)
- ActionForex, Fed's Goolsbee sounds inflation alarm as Daly and Williams back more tightening
- Reuters via Yahoo Finance, Global markets report, November 13
- BetG8, Fed rate decision odds, live, read 10:58 UTC, November 13, 2026
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