Prediction Markets

The Fed hiked. Here is the prediction market scorecard.

Five weeks out both venues favoured a hold. Nine days out they split. A day out both said 87c hike - and the Fed hiked. $311M traded, and the busiest contracts lost.

Is Kalshi legal in Maine?

Maine gave its four federally recognised tribes exclusive mobile rights as economic development policy. A federally regulated exchange routes around the whole arrangement.

When two prediction markets disagree, which one is right?

On 7 September Kalshi and Polymarket named opposite favourites for the Fed decision. Eight days later both sit at 87c on the same outcome. We tracked the whole arc.

Is Kalshi legal in West Virginia?

The control case. West Virginia legalised in 2018, went online in 2019 and licensed nine books - and the exchanges still operate entirely outside all of it.

What does it actually cost to trade on a prediction market?

We measured 1,728 live contracts. Median 0.1c in the deepest markets, 27c in the thinnest. The 45% quoted under 2c carry 98.8% of the money.

Is Kalshi legal in New Hampshire?

No state order restricts Kalshi here. But New Hampshire takes 51% of mobile betting revenue from one licensed operator - and that operator sells prediction markets everywhere except New Hampshire.

Is Kalshi legal in Mississippi?

No state order restricts Kalshi here. But a licensed Mississippi sports bet still requires being inside a casino - the mobile bill passed the House 100-11 and died in the Senate.

Is Kalshi legal in Kansas?

No Kansas order restricts Kalshi. But the contracts holding the licensed Kansas sportsbook market together expire in August 2027, and the legislature blocked renewal talks.

Can you trade Fed rate decisions on Kalshi and Polymarket?

Yes, and they are among the biggest markets on both venues. On 7 September the two exchanges named different favourites for the September FOMC meeting.

Is Kalshi legal in Nebraska?

No state order, no online sportsbook, and two ballot measures on 3 November. FanDuel and DraftKings put $3.5m each behind legalising - while running prediction markets there in the meantime.

Funding rate & liquidation calculator: what a leveraged position really costs

Liquidation price, distance to liquidation, and what funding costs per day, month and year on notional and as a share of margin. Hyperliquid, Binance and Bybit intervals. Free tool.

Will the Supreme Court take the Kalshi case?

New Jersey filed on 2 September. Kalshi’s response is due about 2 October, extendable. The market says 46¢ by year-end; an analyst says 90% eventually. Both can be right — one is about whether, the other about when.

NFL Week 1: Kalshi vs Polymarket vs the books, logged before kickoff

Fourteen games, three prices each, one timestamp. Books de-vigged vs Kalshi vs Polymarket: max gap 2.2 points, median 1.0. Logged now, scored after the games.

Kalshi's oil perpetual, explained

A future with no expiry date, funded three times a day, on a commodity that stops trading at weekends. What Kalshi is actually asking the CFTC for — and why oil is not bitcoin.

Is Kalshi legal in Alabama?

No sportsbook, no lottery, no gaming regulator — and the Eleventh Circuit is the one circuit that has not ruled either way. Alabama is the emptiest map on the board.

Is Kalshi legal in South Carolina?

No attorney general action at all. The only litigation is private, brought by a Delaware LLC under a loss-recovery statute South Carolina adopted in 1712. Kalshi still trades there.

Is Kalshi legal in Arkansas?

Arkansas ruled prediction markets illegal in an attorney general opinion in October 2025, then sent no letter and filed no suit. It taxes three sportsbooks of its own while an untaxed rival runs openly.

Is Kalshi legal in Idaho?

Idaho co-signed the 39-state brief that beat Kalshi in the Ninth Circuit on 28 August. Five days later the state has issued no letter, no suit, nothing. Kalshi still trades there.

SCOTUS market: 29¢ to 55.5¢ in one hour

Hourly Polymarket data around the Ninth Circuit ruling. The December contract nearly doubled in sixty minutes. The October contract did not move at all. CSV included.

Is Kalshi legal in Hawaii?

Hawaii bans every form of gambling and has no sportsbook. Kalshi and Polymarket still run here, and no Hawaii authority has ever written a letter.

Is Kalshi legal in Alaska?

The Ninth Circuit ruling is binding precedent in Alaska. Alaska has no sportsbook, no lottery and no regulator built to enforce it.

Ninth Circuit: what changes in each of its nine states

The ruling binds nine states. Two already have injunctions. Three have no legal sportsbook at all — and those are the ones nobody is writing about.

Is Kalshi legal in Oklahoma? The state with no regulator to send the letter

No cease-and-desist, no licensed sportsbook, and a tribal exclusivity fight running through the Ninth Circuit instead.

Is Kalshi legal in Rhode Island? The state that sued both — and got sued back

No injunction, no ruling, three live cases. And a state that takes a bigger cut of sports betting than any other.

Is Kalshi legal in Utah? The first state to win a final judgment

No sportsbook, no lottery, no betting tax — and the first final federal judgment that state gambling law reaches Kalshi. What it does, and what it pointedly does not do.

Is Kalshi legal in Louisiana? The loudest state without a lawsuit

The regulator says no licence, no market — and has sent the letters to prove it. What it has not done is sue. Kalshi operates untaxed while licensed books pay 21.5%.

States are beating Kalshi 19–4. The coverage says the opposite.

Nineteen of 23 injunction decisions have gone to the states. Why the reporting reads the other way — and a correction to our own newsletter.

Is Kalshi legal in Virginia? The state that legislated everything else

Virginia wrote rules for online casinos, skill games and DFS in 2026. Event contracts were in none of them — and the Fourth Circuit is about to rule above the state anyway.

Is Kalshi legal in North Carolina? The first state to write CFTC authority into law

Is Kalshi legal in Indiana? The state whose regulator says it is not the regulator

Is Kalshi legal in Oregon? The only state where the gap is a rule, not a lawsuit

Do Kalshi’s geofences actually work?

Is Kalshi legal in Missouri?

Whale board: the top BTC long changed hands

Prediction market change log: every dated rule change

Is Kalshi legal in Tennessee? The case that could split the circuits

Is Kalshi legal in your state? The 50-state tracker

Is Kalshi legal in Iowa?

Is Kalshi legal in Montana?

Is Kalshi legal in Colorado?

Is Kalshi legal in Texas? The state that studied instead of sued

Is Kalshi legal in Florida? The compact question nobody has litigated

Is Kalshi legal in Pennsylvania? The regulator objects, the legislature negotiates

Could Congress ban sports prediction markets? The bills, the hearing and the realistic odds

Is Kalshi legal in Illinois? Sports contracts are blocked, and a tax is waiting

Is Kalshi legal in Connecticut? The first cease-and-desist, and what happened next

Is Kalshi legal in Maryland? The case Kalshi lost, and the split it created

Is Kalshi legal in Georgia? The only sports market in the state

Is Kalshi legal in Wisconsin? The CFTC just lost round one

Is Kalshi legal in California? The tribes, the Ninth Circuit and what happens next

Is Kalshi legal in Arizona? The criminal case that got thrown out

Is Kalshi legal in Minnesota? The ban that never started

Is Kalshi legal in Michigan? The August 12 deadline that decides it

Is Kalshi legal in Kentucky? The Coleman lawsuit, explained

Is Kalshi legal in Ohio? The $5 million fine fight, explained

Is Kalshi legal in New York? The $36 billion James lawsuit, explained

Is Kalshi legal in New Jersey?

Is Kalshi legal in Washington? The injunction is live — and the geofence lands August 26

How do election prediction markets work?

Sportsbook vs prediction market: which one actually gives you a better price?

Kalshi vs Polymarket fees compared: what a trade actually costs in 2026

Is Kalshi legal in New Mexico? Two lawsuits, no injunction — yet

Is Kalshi legal in Massachusetts? The Supreme Judicial Court case, explained

Is Kalshi legal in Nevada? The August 12 geofence, explained