2028 presidential election odds, live: the winner and both nominations on Kalshi and Polymarket

Live data · Prices refresh every 5 minutes · 18+ · Not financial advice · By BetG8 Editorial · Live odds

Live · updated 2026-11-06 01:33 UTC · refreshes every 5 minutes

2028 presidential election winner

Polymarket volume $733.6M · Trade on Polymarket · See on Kalshi

Candidate	Polymarket	Kalshi	PM − Kalshi	Odds	Cheaper YES
Jon Ossoff	20.6%	22.5%	-1.9	+363	Polymarket
JD Vance	19.1%	12.5%	+6.6	+534	Kalshi
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	12.2%	10.0%	+2.2	+805	Kalshi
Marco Rubio	9.2%	10.5%	-1.4	+918	Polymarket
Gavin Newsom	7.2%	8.5%	-1.2	+1174	Polymarket
Ron DeSantis	5.8%	6.2%	-0.4	+1574	–
Kamala Harris	3.6%	3.3%	+0.3	+2820	–
Josh Shapiro	2.6%	2.6%	0.0	+3674	–
Pete Buttigieg	2.5%	2.8%	-0.3	+3746	–
James Talarico	1.6%	2.9%	-1.3	+4394	Polymarket
Andy Beshear	1.3%	2.8%	-1.5	+4900	Polymarket
Byron Donalds	–	2.0%	–	+4900	–
Donald J. Trump	–	1.8%	–	+5614	–
Mark Kelly	0.9%	2.3%	-1.4	+6352	Polymarket
Wes Moore	1.0%	1.8%	-0.7	+7043	Polymarket
JB Pritzker	0.5%	1.9%	-1.5	+8233	Polymarket
Tucker Carlson	1.1%	1.0%	+0.2	+9202	–
Rahm Emanuel	0.5%	1.4%	-0.9	+11011	Polymarket
Thomas Massie	1.0%	0.7%	+0.3	+11665	–
Raphael Warnock	0.9%	0.7%	+0.2	+12400	–

2028 Republican presidential nominee

Polymarket volume $728.7M · Trade on Polymarket · See on Kalshi

Candidate	Polymarket	Kalshi	PM − Kalshi	Odds	Cheaper YES
J.D. Vance	37.6%	34.5%	+3.2	+177	Kalshi
Marco Rubio	19.6%	19.5%	+0.1	+412	–
Ron DeSantis	13.0%	18.5%	-5.5	+536	Polymarket
Tucker Carlson	3.5%	4.0%	-0.5	+2585	Polymarket
Glenn Youngkin	3.9%	2.9%	+1.0	+2863	Kalshi
Thomas Massie	2.3%	2.9%	-0.7	+3746	Polymarket
Ted Cruz	2.6%	2.5%	+0.1	+3900	–
Brian Kemp	1.4%	2.4%	-1.0	+5305	Polymarket
Joe Kent	0.9%	2.6%	-1.7	+5697	Polymarket
Donald J. Trump	–	1.7%	–	+5961	–
Donald Trump Jr.	1.7%	–	–	+5961	–
Donald J. Trump Jr.	–	1.6%	–	+6352	–
Nikki Haley	0.8%	1.9%	-1.2	+7307	Polymarket
Ivanka Trump	1.3%	1.0%	+0.3	+8411	–
Marjorie Taylor Greene	0.5%	1.6%	-1.1	+9900	Polymarket
Byron Donalds	0.9%	1.0%	-0.2	+10426	–
Tom Cotton	0.7%	0.6%	+0.1	+15285	–
Josh Hawley	0.4%	0.9%	-0.5	+16567	Polymarket
Rand Paul	0.5%	0.7%	-0.2	+18082	–

2028 Democratic presidential nominee

Polymarket volume $1.31B · Trade on Polymarket · See on Kalshi

Candidate	Polymarket	Kalshi	PM − Kalshi	Odds	Cheaper YES
Jon Ossoff	26.5%	25.5%	+1.0	+285	Kalshi
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	17.0%	13.5%	+3.5	+556	Kalshi
Gavin Newsom	12.6%	12.5%	+0.1	+697	–
Kamala Harris	4.3%	5.1%	-0.8	+2016	Polymarket
Pete Buttigieg	4.3%	5.1%	-0.7	+2028	Polymarket
Josh Shapiro	4.5%	4.5%	0.0	+2147	–
Andy Beshear	3.8%	4.5%	-0.8	+2295	Polymarket
James Talarico	2.8%	3.6%	-0.8	+3075	Polymarket
Mark Kelly	1.9%	3.6%	-1.6	+3536	Polymarket
Raphael Warnock	2.4%	2.9%	-0.5	+3710	Polymarket
Wes Moore	2.0%	2.6%	-0.5	+4248	Polymarket
J.B. Pritzker	1.4%	1.9%	-0.6	+5961	Polymarket
Abdul El-Sayed	0.5%	2.8%	-2.2	+5961	Polymarket
Rahm Emanuel	1.3%	1.7%	-0.5	+6680	–
Ro Khanna	1.5%	1.4%	+0.1	+6680	–
Michelle Obama	0.6%	1.1%	-0.5	+11329	Polymarket
Gretchen Whitmer	0.7%	0.7%	0.0	+15285	–
Cory Booker	0.5%	0.8%	-0.2	+15285	–
Roy Cooper	0.5%	0.5%	0.0	+18082	–

The short version: the 2028 race is the most heavily traded long-dated market on both prediction exchanges, with hundreds of millions of dollars traded on Polymarket alone. This page shows the live price of every candidate with a quote on Kalshi and Polymarket for three markets: who wins the presidency on November 7, 2028, who wins the Republican nomination and who wins the Democratic nomination. Prices are implied probabilities; the odds column converts the average of the two venues into American odds.

LIVE MARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028Trade on Polymarket →

How to read the table

Each row is one outcome that trades on both venues. The Polymarket and Kalshi columns show the price of a YES contract as a percentage, which is also the market’s implied probability: a candidate at 17% costs 17 cents and pays $1 if the outcome happens. Where both sides of the book are quoted we use the midpoint of the best bid and best ask; where the spread is wider than 10 cents we fall back to the last traded price, and outcomes with no live quote are left out. PM − Kalshi is the difference in percentage points. A negative number means Polymarket is cheaper; a positive number means Kalshi is cheaper. Cheaper YES names the venue where buying YES costs less before fees, and is blank when the two prices are within half a point.

How to read 2028 odds this far out

Markets two years before an election price name recognition, the party’s chances and the field as it looks today. Candidates who have not declared are listed because traders expect them to, and candidates who later decline drift toward zero. Three things move these prices most: formal announcements, early primary polling in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, and the result of the 2026 midterms, which is already in the prices. The winner market and the two nomination markets have to be read together: a candidate’s chance of becoming president cannot exceed their chance of being nominated, so a large gap between the two tells you how the market rates that party’s general-election chances. Our midterm scorecard shows how well these markets called the 2026 races.

Why the same event has two prices

Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange for US customers that settles in dollars. Polymarket’s main venue settles on-chain and is not open to US residents, and Polymarket US is a separate regulated app with its own order books. The traders on each side are different people with different money, fees and limits, so the books drift apart until someone is willing to buy one and sell the other. Moving money between a bank-funded exchange and an on-chain one takes time and costs fees, which is why gaps of two or three points can sit for days on long-dated markets like 2028 nominations while they close within minutes on a Fed decision the week of the meeting. A gap is not free money: fees on both venues, the bid-ask spread, the cost of tying up capital until settlement and small differences in how each contract resolves all eat into it. Our fee calculator shows what each side costs, and this guide covers how locked profits come unlocked.

Method and limits

Prices come straight from the public Polymarket Gamma API and the Kalshi trade API and are refreshed every five minutes; the time of the last refresh is shown at the top of the page. Outcomes are matched by name, so a market that one venue lists and the other does not appears with a dash in the missing column. Percentages are rounded to one decimal place. Nothing here is a forecast by BetG8: these are prices that other people are paying. Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk, are restricted by age and location, and this page is not betting, financial or legal advice.

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favorite to win the 2028 presidential election?

The table at the top of this page lists the current favorite on both Kalshi and Polymarket, ranked by the average of the two prices. It changes as candidates announce and as primary polling arrives, so check the live figures rather than a fixed answer.

When is the 2028 presidential election?

Election Day is Tuesday, November 7, 2028. The first nominating contests take place in early 2028, and the party conventions in the summer.

Are 2028 election odds accurate?

Prediction market prices are the market’s best estimate today, not a forecast of the result. Long-dated political markets have historically been reasonable on the eventual winner’s party but noisy on individual candidates years out, when many of today’s names will not run.

Can Americans bet on the 2028 election?

Kalshi lists election contracts for US customers under CFTC oversight, and Polymarket US operates a separate regulated app. Polymarket’s main international site is not open to US residents. Age and state rules apply; see our state tracker.