College football odds today, Week 11: Texas is an underdog at LSU, Georgia is a heavy favorite and unbeaten Utah is barely favored at Arizona
Week 11 is the second weekend since the College Football Playoff committee released its first rankings, and the order it published on November 10 already looks fragile. Two of the top six teams play ranked opponents on the road or at home today, and the prediction markets price all three games as closer than the rankings gap would suggest. Our rankings report covers how the committee's list reshaped the title market earlier this week.
What happened
The committee's November 10 top 12 was Georgia (8-1), Utah (9-0), Alabama (7-2), UCLA (9-0), Notre Dame (8-1), Texas (7-2), Miami (8-1), Tennessee (7-2), Indiana (8-1), BYU (7-2), Kentucky (7-2) and Texas Tech (8-1), according to CBS Sports. UCLA improved to 10-0 on Friday night with a 22-14 win over Illinois, per ESPN, so it does not play today. That leaves three games in focus.
Texas at LSU kicks off at 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC in Tiger Stadium. Sports Illustrated lists LSU at -3.5 with a 46.5 total and moneylines of LSU -185 and Texas +150. Texas is 7-2 and 4-2 in the SEC; LSU is 6-3 and 3-3. Arch Manning, who grew up in New Orleans, has thrown for 517 yards, six touchdowns and no interceptions over his last two games, according to SI.
Missouri at Georgia starts at 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC. DraftKings lists Georgia at -16.5 with a 47.5 total, according to Dawn of the Dawg, up from -15.5 at BetMGM earlier in the week.
Utah at Arizona is the late game tonight in Tucson. FanDuel Research lists it on FOX and has Utah at -1.5 with a -115 moneyline and a 55.5 total. Utah is 8-1 against the spread this season; Arizona is 3-6.
What the market is pricing
Game prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, read between 15:05 and 15:15 UTC. Kalshi figures are the best bid and ask; Polymarket figures are the moneyline midpoint.
| Game (kickoff, ET) | Kalshi | Polymarket | Sportsbook line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texas at LSU (7:30 p.m.) | LSU 62-63¢, Texas 37-39¢ | LSU 63%, Texas 37% | LSU -3.5 to -4, total 46.5 |
| Missouri at Georgia (3:30 p.m.) | n/a | Georgia 85%, Missouri 15% | Georgia -16.5, total 47.5 |
| Utah at Arizona (late kickoff) | Utah 55-56¢, Arizona 44-45¢ | Utah 57.5%, Arizona 42.5% | Utah -1.5, total 55.5 |
| USC at Indiana | n/a | Indiana 74.5%, USC 25.5% | n/a |
Two details stand out. Texas is the busier side on Kalshi, with about $417,000 traded on the Texas contract against about $61,000 on LSU, so more money has gone into backing the underdog even though the price still favors LSU. On Polymarket, the spread market at LSU -4.5 trades at 48.5 to 49 cents, which lines up with the sportsbook number. In Tucson, a 9-0 team ranked second by the committee is priced barely better than a coin flip.
Why it matters
The national championship market shows what is at stake. On BetG8's live college football title odds page at 15:07 UTC, the board read:
| Team (CFP rank) | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| Georgia (1) | 31.9% | 32.5% |
| Notre Dame (5) | 18.5% | 16.5% |
| Alabama (3) | 11.6% | 11.5% |
| Miami (7) | 9.8% | 9.5% |
| Texas (6) | 8.3% | 8.5% |
| Indiana (9) | 7.2% | 7.5% |
| LSU (21) | 3.8% | 3.5% |
| Utah (2) | n/a | 3.5% |
| UCLA (4) | n/a | 3.5% |
The gap between the rankings and the prices is the story of the season so far. Utah and UCLA are the only unbeaten teams in the committee's top four, yet Kalshi prices each at 3.5% to win the title, below Indiana at No. 9. Traders are betting that their schedules and rosters will not hold up in a 12-team bracket against SEC and Big Ten champions. A loss for Texas tonight would put a third defeat on the résumé of a team priced eighth on the board, while a win for LSU would give the Tigers a second ranked victory with three games left. Georgia, as the favorite on both venues, has the most to lose in percentage terms if Missouri pulls an upset.
What to watch next
First, the Georgia game this afternoon, which comes before the two night kickoffs and will move the top of the title board. Second, the Heisman race: Texas quarterback Arch Manning trades at 0.6% on Polymarket, while Ohio State receiver Jeremiah Smith leads at about 36% on Polymarket and 37.5% on Kalshi; our new live Heisman Trophy odds page tracks every contender. Third, Tuesday's rankings release, which will reprice the board again. Every game today is listed with live prices on our college football game odds page, and our earlier Alabama at LSU preview shows how Tiger Stadium has affected recent prices.
Method and limits
Kalshi game prices are the best bid and ask from its public trade API. Polymarket prices are from the public Gamma API: the moneyline midpoint for games and, for the title market, the figures shown on BetG8's live page. Rankings, kickoff times and sportsbook lines are as reported by CBS Sports, Sports Illustrated, FanDuel Research and Dawn of the Dawg and can change before kickoff. Nothing here is a forecast by BetG8 or betting advice.
LIVE MARKETCollege Football National ChampionTrade on Polymarket →Related
- College football title odds, live
- Heisman Trophy odds, live
- College football game odds today
- CFP rankings: Utah No. 2 and the title odds
- Alabama at LSU odds
Frequently asked questions
Who is favored in Texas vs LSU?
LSU. At about 15:10 UTC on November 14, 2026, Kalshi priced LSU at 62 to 63 cents and Texas at 37 to 39 cents, Polymarket had LSU at 63%, and sportsbooks listed LSU at -3.5 to -4 with a 46.5 total. These are market prices, not predictions.
What are the Georgia vs Missouri odds?
Georgia was priced at about 85% to beat Missouri on Polymarket on November 14, 2026, and DraftKings listed the Bulldogs as 16.5-point favorites with a 47.5 total, according to Dawn of the Dawg.
Who is the favorite to win the college football national championship?
Georgia, at 31.9% on Polymarket and 32.5% on Kalshi on November 14, 2026, ahead of Notre Dame at 16.5% to 18.5% and Alabama at about 11.5%.
Sources
- CBS Sports, College Football Playoff rankings, November 10
- Sports Illustrated, Texas vs. LSU prediction, odds and key players
- FanDuel Research, Utah vs. Arizona odds
- Dawn of the Dawg, Georgia vs. Missouri game time and odds
- ESPN, UCLA 22, Illinois 14
- Kalshi and Polymarket, Game and national championship markets, read 15:05 to 15:15 UTC
Market prices, not predictions or advice. 18+. This page reports market prices and published facts; it is not betting, financial or legal advice. If gambling stops being fun, help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER.