Nigerian Presidential Election Winner: live odds and probabilities
The market favorite is Bola Tinubu at 67.5%, ahead of Candidate D at 50.0%. $153K traded across 22 outcomes.
Favorite
24h move
Volume
Closes
africaNigeriaPoliticsElectionsGlobal Elections
All outcomes
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Bola Tinubu | 67.5% | -0.5 |
| Candidate D | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Candidate E | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Candidate F | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Candidate G | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Candidate H | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Candidate I | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Candidate J | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Candidate K | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Candidate L | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Candidate M | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Candidate N | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Candidate O | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Candidate P | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Other | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Peter Obi | 26.0% | +3.5 |
| Seyi Makinde | 2.2% | -1.8 |
| Atiku Abubakar | 1.5% | -4.4 |
| Rabiu Kwankwaso | 0.9% | -4.3 |
| Omoyele Sowore | 0.7% | +0.1 |
| Rotimi Amaechi | 0.2% | 0.0 |
| Sandy Onor | 0.1% | 0.0 |
Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:04 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.
Price history
Market rules and resolution
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Nigeria on January 16, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Nigerian presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Nigerian government sources, including the Independent National Electoral Commission (https://www.inecnigeria.org/).
How to read this market
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favored in "Nigerian Presidential Election Winner"?
- As of November 6, 2026, Bola Tinubu is the favorite at 67.5%, followed by Candidate D at 50.0%.
- When does this market resolve?
- The market is scheduled to close on January 17, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
- How much has been traded?
- $153K in total and $7K in the last 24 hours, with about $129K of resting liquidity.
- Can I trade this market?
- Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.
Related on BetG8
Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.