Bitcoin price drop today: odds of a dip to $65,000 by year end reach 81.5% on Polymarket after a fresh low of $66,456
This is an update to our Friday report on bitcoin falling below $70,000. Since then the price has moved further below that line and every downside contract we track has repriced sharply.
What happened
Binance's 24-hour data, read at 08:09 UTC, shows bitcoin trading between $70,214 and $66,456, with the last price at $67,264, a decline of 2.18% on the day. The low came in thin weekend trading after the US session closed. The Defiant recorded a Coinbase low of $66,789 and described the move as a deepening of a sell-off that has now run for four weeks.
The rest of the market followed. On Binance at the same timestamp, ether was at $1,901 (down 1.86% in 24 hours), solana at $75.35 (down 5.84%) and XRP at $0.9863 (down 4.21%). The Defiant counted 42 of the 44 tokens on its watchlist lower over 24 hours. XRP's slide under its own round number is covered in our report on XRP below $1.
Leverage did much of the damage. CoinAnk data relayed by ChainThink and published by KuCoin News put liquidations across crypto futures at about $845 million in 24 hours. About $708 million of that was long positions and about $137 million short, with bitcoin accounting for roughly $391 million and ether for roughly $203 million. CryptoTicker, citing CoinGlass, gave a higher range of $1.3 billion to $1.6 billion for Friday depending on when the window was measured. Both sets of figures say the same thing: traders positioned for higher prices were closed out by force.
The trigger named by most of our sources was macro. October US producer prices rose 6.5% from a year earlier, with the core rate at 4.9%, a reading that CryptoTicker said started Friday afternoon's slide by raising the odds that the Federal Reserve keeps rates high or lifts them again. Our own coverage of that release is in the October PPI report.
What the market is pricing
Spot prices are from Binance as of 08:09 UTC on November 14. Polymarket prices were read at 08:10 UTC through BetG8's Bitcoin topic page and Polymarket's data feed. These contracts pay out if bitcoin touches the level at any time before the deadline, so they measure the chance of a dip, not of a close. We did not read a comparable Kalshi contract in this run, so the table shows Polymarket only.
| Market | Reading | 24h change |
|---|---|---|
| BTC spot (Binance) | $67,264 | Down 2.18%; 24h range $66,456 to $70,214 |
| Polymarket: BTC dips to $65,000 by December 31 | 81.5% | Up 13.0 points |
| Polymarket: BTC dips to $60,000 by December 31 | 46.5% | Up 10 points |
| Polymarket: BTC dips to $65,000 in November | 69.5% | Up 18.0 points |
| Polymarket: BTC dips to $66,000, week of November 9 to 15 | 46.9% | Up 19.7 points |
The comparison with Friday is the story. When we published at 10:59 UTC on November 13, the November contract on a $65,000 dip was priced at 45.5%. It is now 69.5%, a gain of 24 points in under a day. The year-end version of the same level reached 84.5% when our crypto desk read it at 05:47 UTC, shortly after the low, and has eased to 81.5% as the price recovered about $800 from the bottom.
Put plainly, traders now treat a visit to $65,000 before the end of the year as the most likely path and price $60,000 at a little under even. The year-end market is the largest bitcoin market on Polymarket, with about $86.7 million in total volume, so these prices carry more weight than the small daily contracts. Bitcoin would need to fall a further 3.4% from the 08:09 UTC price to reach $65,000 and about 10.8% to reach $60,000.
Why it matters
The level itself has history. According to CryptoTicker, bitcoin last traded this low in August, when it bottomed at $64,686 on August 19. That print sits just under $65,000, which is why the contract is watched: a move to $65,000 would put the August low within a few hundred dollars. Below that, CryptoTicker lists the 12-month low of $58,566 from July 1.
The bigger picture is a weak year. Bitcoin started 2026 at $87,575 and is down about 23% since January 1, CryptoTicker's figures show, and it is roughly 47% below the record of $126,080 set in October 2025. Demand indicators have not helped. A Glassnode report dated November 11, cited by CryptoTicker, found US spot bitcoin ETFs lost a net $1.6 billion over the 20 trading days to November 9 and stablecoin supply shrank by $14.2 billion in 30 days. We covered the fund side in our report on bitcoin ETF flows turning negative for 2026.
None of this tells anyone where the price goes next. Prediction market prices move quickly in both directions, and the 3-point retreat in the year-end contract since 05:47 UTC shows how sensitive they are to a small bounce. BetG8 does not forecast prices.
What to watch next
The weekend is the first test. Liquidity is thinner on Saturday and Sunday, and Polymarket's weekly bitcoin contract, which includes the $66,000 level, closes on November 16. The November contract closes on December 1 and the year-end contract on January 1, 2027.
On Monday, US markets reopen and spot ETF flow data resumes, which CryptoTicker expects to set the tone after the weekend. The next scheduled macro event is the Federal Reserve's December 9 decision; pricing is on our Fed rate decision odds page, and derivatives positioning is on the live crypto funding rates page.
Method: spot prices are from Binance's BTC/USDT market; liquidation, ETF and historical figures are as reported by the sources below and were not independently verified.
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Frequently asked questions
Why is the bitcoin price dropping today?
Bitcoin extended a four-week sell-off after October US producer prices rose 6.5% from a year earlier, which raised expectations that the Federal Reserve keeps rates high. CoinAnk data put crypto futures liquidations at about $845 million in 24 hours, about $708 million of it long positions, and US spot bitcoin ETFs have seen net outflows.
What are the odds bitcoin falls to $65,000?
At 08:10 UTC on November 14, 2026, Polymarket priced a dip to $65,000 before December 31 at 81.5%, up 13 points in 24 hours, and a dip to $65,000 before the end of November at 69.5%. The $60,000 year-end contract was at 46.5%. These are market prices, not predictions.
How low did bitcoin go?
Bitcoin touched $66,456 on Binance, its lowest price since August, and traded at $67,264 at 08:09 UTC on November 14, 2026, down 2.18% in 24 hours. CryptoTicker puts the August low at $64,686 on August 19 and the 12-month low at $58,566 on July 1.
Sources
- Binance, BTC/USDT spot ticker, read 08:09 UTC
- Polymarket, What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?, read 08:10 UTC
- The Defiant, Bitcoin drops below $67,000 as crypto selloff deepens
- KuCoin News (ChainThink, CoinAnk data), $845M in liquidations across crypto markets in 24 hours
- CryptoTicker, Bitcoin price at lowest since August: levels to watch
Market prices, not predictions or advice. 18+. This page reports market prices and published facts; it is not betting, financial or legal advice. If gambling stops being fun, help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER.