Prediction market change log: every dated rule change, week by week

Why this page exists

There are now at least seven good 50-state legality trackers, and they all tell you roughly the same thing: where each state stands today. None of them tell you what moved. That is the harder and more useful question, because the status of any given state is a snapshot of a fight that is still running, and the direction of travel is carried in the dates.

So this is a log, not a table. Every entry gives the date, the state, the person or body that made the decision, what actually changed, and what it sets up next. We update it weekly and we do not quietly rewrite history — corrections are noted as corrections. If you want current status by state, our 50-state tracker is the right page. If you want to know what happened since you last looked, you are in the right place.

Week of September 7 – November 3, 2026

November 2 — Utah: DraftKings, FanDuel, Robinhood and Fanatics pull event contracts after the criminal charges

Within a week of Utah’s October 28 charges against Kalshi, the licensed sportsbooks that distribute event contracts withdrew them from the state. DraftKings said that, effective immediately, sports, novelty, political and certain other event contracts were no longer available to anyone in Utah, with financial contracts still offered; Robinhood restricted Utah customers from new sports, culture, elections and politics contracts from November 2 while keeping finance and economics markets; Fanatics said it would cease offering prediction market contracts in Utah from November 4. No company tied its decision to the charges, and none was named in Utah’s cases. Attorney General Derek Brown called the withdrawals a win for Utah families and said the state would “continue to enforce Utah law against any company that brings gambling into Utah.” Kalshi itself remains available in Utah. Source: FOX 13; our analysis.

October 30 — Illinois: a preliminary injunction is entered, and the state appeals the same day

Judge Martha M. Pacold of the Northern District of Illinois entered the preliminary injunction she had announced in her October 2 opinion, covering the three related cases brought by Coinbase Financial Markets, KalshiEX and the United States. The order bars Illinois from enforcing Article 25 of the Sports Wagering Act, a section of the Gambling Act and a Gaming Board internet wagering rule against swaps, including sports event contracts, traded on CFTC-designated contract markets and through futures commission merchants; it reaches licensing requirements and fees, taxes, related criminal provisions, civil enforcement, subpoenas and other compulsory process. Attorney General Kwame Raoul and the Gaming Board filed a notice of appeal to the Seventh Circuit the same day; the appeal does not by itself pause the injunction. The 1.75 percent per-contract fee enacted in June, rising to 3.5 percent after five million wagers a year, is still being briefed, with a joint status report due November 12. Source: RG.org.

October 28 — Utah: criminal charges against Kalshi and its two founders

Attorney General Derek Brown filed criminal charges in Third District Court, Salt Lake City, against KalshiEX and co-founders Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara: one count of pattern of unlawful activity, a second-degree felony; 12 counts of online gambling promotion, third-degree felonies; and one count of gambling promotion, a class A misdemeanor, based on 12 bets an undercover investigator placed from Utah between September 13 and 24, 2026. It is the second criminal case against Kalshi after Arizona and the first to name its founders, filed two days after the CFTC sued Utah. No court order restricts the platform; Kalshi is available in Utah, and the defendants are due in court in December. Source: Deseret News; our analysis.

October 26 — Utah: the CFTC sues the state, its tenth suit against a state

The United States and the CFTC sued the State of Utah and Attorney General Derek Brown in the District of Utah, Central Division, with a single Supremacy Clause claim: that event contracts on CFTC-designated contract markets are swaps under exclusive federal jurisdiction, so Utah’s gambling statutes and public nuisance law are preempted on express, field and conflict grounds as applied to them. The complaint seeks a declaration and preliminary and permanent injunctions barring Utah from investigating or enforcing against CFTC-regulated entities, their affiliates and partners. Kalshi is not a party. It is the CFTC’s tenth state suit after Arizona, Connecticut, Illinois, Kentucky, Minnesota, New Mexico, New York, Rhode Island and Wisconsin, and the first against a state with a Republican governor. No ruling; Kalshi available in Utah. Source: RG.org; Politico; our analysis.

October 20 — Utah: the attorney general sues Kalshi and Susquehanna in state court

Attorney General Derek Brown filed a civil complaint in Third District Court, Salt Lake County, against KalshiEX, Kalshi Trading, Kalshi Klear and Kalshi, and against Susquehanna International Group and Susquehanna Government Products as market makers, declaring online gambling a public nuisance. It seeks an injunction against Kalshi’s sports, election, politics and other markets in Utah, disgorgement and restitution, and estimates Kalshi’s fees from about 3.06 billion Utah-linked contracts at $30.6 million to $61.2 million. First state suit to name a market maker. Source: Deseret News; our analysis.

September 8 — Utah: the Tenth Circuit refuses to block enforcement pending appeal

The Tenth Circuit denied Kalshi’s emergency motion for an injunction pending its appeal of the August 4 judgment for Utah, finding Kalshi had not shown the injunction factors weigh in its favour. Utah is free to enforce while the appeal is briefed; no argument date set. Source: Yogonet.

October 26 — Federal: the NBA signs a CFTC memorandum and names Kalshi and Polymarket its preferred exchanges

The CFTC and the National Basketball Association signed a memorandum of understanding on cooperation and information sharing about suspicious trading in NBA prediction markets, making the NBA the third league with such an agreement after Major League Baseball and the NHL. The same day the league named Kalshi and Polymarket its Preferred Prediction Market Exchanges, with official Sportradar data, US marketing rights, limits on which markets they may list, a ban on trading by league and team personnel and duties to share information on suspicious trading, and expanded its DraftKings deal to prediction markets. No state’s status changes. Source: NBA; The Block; our analysis.

October 23 — Louisiana: Kalshi sues before the state acts

KalshiEX LLC sued Attorney General Liz Murrill, Governor Jeff Landry, Gaming Division director Dawn Himel and the Louisiana Gaming Control Board in the Western District of Louisiana (KalshiEX LLC v. Murrill, No. 1:26-cv-04476), seeking declaratory and injunctive relief against applying state gambling law to its event contracts. Kalshi says officials will imminently bring an enforcement action, pointing to the Board’s statements that CFTC registration is no defence and to a state law effective August 1 that broadens “gambling by computer” and adds injunctions and account freezes. No Louisiana enforcement action or order exists; Kalshi remains available. First prediction market case in the Fifth Circuit. Source: DeFi Rate; Justia docket.

October 20 — Ohio: the Commission tells its own licensees to stop serving prediction markets by October 30

Interim executive director Andromeda Morrison wrote to all sports gaming and fantasy contest licensees, suppliers, key employees, integrity monitors, testing laboratories and applicants, ordering them to immediately cease liquidity, market making, integrity monitoring, equipment, data security and other technology services for unlicensed sports event contract operators serving Ohio, and to confirm compliance by October 30 and preserve records. Futures commission merchants and introducing brokers that block Ohio customers from sports contracts count as compliant; non-sports contracts are not covered. Non-compliance can reopen suitability reviews and lead to suspension or revocation. Source: Covers; RG.org; our analysis.

October 16 — Ohio: Polymarket US sues the state on the deadline day

QCX LLC, operator of Polymarket US, sued Attorney General Andy Wilson, Morrison and the seven commissioners in the Southern District of Ohio (No. 2:26-cv-01502, Judge Douglas R. Cole), seeking preliminary and permanent injunctions on two theories: Commodity Exchange Act preemption, and a Commerce Clause challenge to Ohio's in-state-presence licensing rules. Polymarket's first suit against a state; the Sixth Circuit's September 25 ruling binds the court on preemption. Source: Yogonet; SBC Americas.

October 21 — California (tribal): a third tribe joins the Kalshi and Robinhood case, and the geofence is disputed

U.S. District Judge Jacqueline Scott Corley granted the tribes' motion to add Buena Vista Rancheria of Me-Wuk Indians as a third plaintiff against Kalshi and Robinhood; terminated the motions to dismiss without prejudice; set an amended complaint deadline and a case management conference for November 4 and ordered the parties to confer on a geofencing stipulation. No statewide change. Follows the Ninth Circuit's September 16 ruling that sports contracts entered from tribal land are likely class III gaming; Kalshi says it geofenced the reservations with GeoComply, the tribes allege a trade from the Blue Lake reservation and plan IGRA claims against Robinhood. Source: RG.org.

September 17 — Iowa: Kalshi takes its pre-enforcement case to the Eighth Circuit

Appeal of the September 8 injunction denial docketed after a September 15 notice of appeal; Kalshi's opening brief and appendix due November 6, 2026. No enforcement action in Iowa; the Eighth Circuit has not yet ruled on prediction market preemption. Source: Justia Dockets.

September 17 — Montana: Kalshi and the state drop the federal case for a 30-day-notice standstill

Kalshi and Montana (D. Mont.) filed a stipulated dismissal of Kalshi's federal suit, with prejudice as to some commission defendants and without prejudice as to the Gambling Control Division and others; Montana agreed not to enforce while Kalshi's Ninth Circuit en banc petition in the Nevada case is pending and to give 30 days' notice before enforcing if it is denied or the court again rules for Nevada. Standstill replaces litigation; Kalshi may keep operating in Montana. Whether sports contracts were restored is not reported. Source: InGame.

September 8 — Iowa: a federal judge refuses to block the state from regulating Kalshi

U.S. District Judge Stephen Locher denied Kalshi's motion for a preliminary injunction in its pre-enforcement suit against Attorney General Brenna Bird and the Racing and Gaming Commission, finding Kalshi unlikely to succeed on preemption because Congress "should have been clear about that preemption." No court order now bars Iowa enforcement; no enforcement action reported. Kalshi appealed on September 15. Source: Courthouse News Service.

August 27 — Montana: a federal judge denies Kalshi an injunction

U.S. District Judge Donald W. Molloy denied Kalshi's preliminary injunction motion without prejudice, holding that its repeated agreements to stay the case "fatally undermine" a showing of irreparable harm, and refused a third stay. No injunction protecting Kalshi in Montana; led to the September 17 stipulated dismissal. Source: InGame.

October 15 — Federal (S.D.N.Y.): a judge refuses to erase Gemini's CFTC consent order

U.S. District Judge Alvin Hellerstein denied a rare joint motion by Gemini and the CFTC to vacate the consent order Gemini signed in January 2025 over statements about a proposed bitcoin futures product, leaving the $5 million penalty paid and the permanent injunction in force. He held that the Commission's change of enforcement priorities and misconduct allegations inside its enforcement division were not grounds to reopen a signed judgment: "Neither of these two grounds is sufficient to support vacating the settlement." It matters here because Gemini Titan is one of the CFTC-registered venues expanding into event contracts, and one of the ten that received Ohio's October 2 letter; the ruling changes no state's status. Source: Decrypt.

September 25 — Ninth Circuit: Kalshi asks the court to grant rehearing or wait for the CFTC; Nevada calls it delay

With its en banc petition in the Nevada case pending since September 9, Kalshi wrote to the Ninth Circuit that because the CFTC said it would revise 17 CFR 40.11 "within the next two months," the court should either grant rehearing or hold the petition until the revised rule is published. Nevada, represented by Nicole Saharsky of Mayer Brown, opposed, writing that "the court was well aware that the CFTC planned to revise section 40.11 when it issued the decision" and calling the request "just another attempt at delay." The court had not acted as of October 22, and the August 28 ruling for Nevada stays in effect. Source: CDC Gaming; our October 22 analysis.

October 19 — CFTC: swap-definition rules published in the Federal Register, casino exclusion in force, comments due November 18

The Commission’s interim final rule “Further Definition of ‘Swap’ To Exclude Casino-Style Gambling Products” (RIN 3038-AF81) appeared at 91 FR 65969 on October 19, 2026 and took effect on publication. It adds a paragraph to the swap definition in Regulation 1.3 so that wagers offered by state- or tribe-licensed gambling operators, including sportsbook bets and casino games, fall outside the swap category and the agency’s jurisdiction. The proposed rule “Further Definition of ‘Swap’ – Inclusions” (RIN 3038-AF82), at 91 FR 66022, would add event contracts based on sports, political, cultural and weather events to the definition. Comments on both close November 18, 2026. Neither document changes any state’s status: the exclusion concerns licensed operators’ products, and the inclusion is a proposal the Sixth Circuit has already said it does not regard as settling whether sports event contracts are swaps. Source: Federal Register, interim final rule; Federal Register, proposed rule; our October 10 analysis.

October 8 — Florida: Seminole Tribe sues DraftKings over sports event contracts and Pick6

The Seminole Tribe of Florida filed a 72-page complaint in Broward County circuit court against DraftKings, chief executive Jason Robins and DraftKings Predictions, alleging that DraftKings’ sports event contracts and its Pick6 product are unlicensed sports betting that violates the exclusivity the tribe holds under the 2021 gaming compact, and seeking an injunction, disgorgement of profits and costs. The complaint quotes Robins describing the contracts as functionally identical to the company’s sportsbook in other states; DraftKings says the offering complies with the Commodity Exchange Act framework. It is the tribe’s first action against a prediction market operator and the first Florida court case on the compact question; Kalshi and Polymarket are not defendants, and the Florida Gaming Control Commission has taken no action. Source: Action News Jax; Card Player; our Florida page.

September 15 — Texas: Senate State Affairs Committee holds its first prediction market hearing

The Texas Senate Committee on State Affairs took testimony under Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick’s “Closing Gambling Loopholes” interim charge, with the House State Affairs Committee hearing the subject the same day. The American Gaming Association’s Tres York urged Texas to sue operators in state court under existing gambling law and seek a geofence order; Kalshi’s head of enforcement Robert DeNault argued federal preemption and offered advertising and disclosure safeguards; Sen. Bob Hall said “It is gambling. It doesn’t matter how it’s done.” No bill was filed and no enforcement followed; the Legislature’s next regular session opens in January 2027. Source: Covers; Fox San Antonio; our Texas page.

October 16 — Missouri: Novig sues the attorney general and gaming commissioners the day before the cease-and-desist window closes

Ludlow Exchange LLC, which operates Novig, sued Attorney General Catherine Hanaway, Missouri Gaming Commission executive director Michael Lear and chair Jan Zimmerman in their official capacities in the Eastern District of Missouri (No. 4:26-cv-01780), seeking preliminary and permanent injunctions and a declaration that Missouri's gambling and sports wagering laws are preempted as applied to its sports event contracts, which it calls "quintessential swaps" under the Commodity Exchange Act. The September 17 letter had given Novig 30 days to stop or obtain a Missouri Gaming Commission licence and pay the 10 percent tax; the window closed October 17 with no announced compliance by any of the six recipients. Source: Covers; Law360; our report.

October 16 — Missouri: Crypto.com's exchange files a second suit in the Western District

North American Derivatives Exchange, Inc., the CFTC-designated contract market Crypto.com acquired in 2022 and now operates as OG.com Prediction Markets, sued the same Missouri officials in the Western District of Missouri (No. 4:26-cv-00969), seeking declaratory and injunctive relief against enforcement of state gambling law against sports prediction markets. The two plaintiffs chose different districts so the cases would not share a judge; both appeals would go to the Eighth Circuit, which has no prediction market ruling. Kalshi, Polymarket, Robinhood and Underdog, the other recipients of the September 16 and 17 letters, had made no public response by October 18. Source: Prediction News; DeFi Rate docket tracker; our Missouri page.

October 16 — Ohio: the deadline passes and most of the ten keep trading

At the close of business on the Casino Control Commission's deadline, most of the ten recipients of the October 2 letters were still offering sports event contracts in Ohio, some with ads running during games. A records request showed one commitment to stop, from Plus500US, and a reporter found a location block on parts of its app. Polymarket and Robinhood said the federal government, not the state, regulates them. Governor Mike DeWine called the companies' conduct "pure and simple gambling" and said the state will file suits; Attorney General Andy Wilson said Ohio could recover money made from Ohio residents. No suit had been filed by October 17. Source: News 5 Cleveland; our report.

October 14 — Kentucky: a federal magistrate recommends sending the state's Polymarket and Kalshi suits back to Franklin Circuit Court

U.S. Magistrate Judge Edward B. Atkins of the Eastern District of Kentucky recommended granting the Commonwealth's motion to remand its enforcement suit against Polymarket (QCX LLC) to state court, rejecting federal-officer and federal-question removal and relying on the Sixth Circuit's September 25 decision, which Kentucky had filed as supplemental authority on September 29; District Judge Claria Horn Boom referred the motions on October 1. Daniel Wallach reported the same day that the magistrate issued a matching recommendation in the Kalshi case. Objections are due within 14 days and a district judge must adopt the recommendations before either case moves. Source: Gaming.net, October 15; Gambling Insider, October 15; our Kentucky page.

October 13 — Tennessee: Underdog sues after a letter that threatened its fantasy licence

Underdog Exchange DCM and UDM, trading as Underdog Predict, sued Attorney General Jonathan Skrmetti and officials of the Sports Wagering Council in the Middle District of Tennessee, seeking a declaration that state enforcement against its sports event contracts violates the Supremacy Clause and a permanent injunction. The Council's October 9 cease-and-desist letter had warned of fines, criminal investigation and revocation of the fantasy sports licence held by sister company Underdog Sports. Tennessee is the seventh state Underdog has sued. The case is filed inside the Sixth Circuit, which ruled against Kalshi on the same question on September 25. Source: Sportsbook Review.

October 13 — SEC: Cboe's binary options on corporate KPIs approved over Kalshi's objection

The Securities and Exchange Commission approved Cboe's rule filing SR-CBOE-2026-061 (Release No. 34-106659), permitting cash-settled $1 binary options on key performance indicators reported in companies' earnings filings, with up to 100 contracts on 23 companies planned at launch, Robinhood as first retail broker and fees waived through the end of 2026. Kalshi and Rothera had asked the SEC on August 5 to wait for the joint SEC-CFTC review; the Commission declined. Chairman Atkins said the order "does not address, and does not foreclose, CFTC jurisdiction" over differently structured KPI contracts. Trading awaits registration of Cboe Clear U.S. Source: SEC statement, October 13; National Law Review, October 15; our explainer.

October 9 — Sixth Circuit: Kalshi asks for rehearing, citing the rules the CFTC issued that morning

On the last day of the 14-day window, Kalshi petitioned for panel rehearing or rehearing en banc of the September 25 decision for Ohio and Tennessee. The petition, signed by Neal Katyal of Milbank, argues the panel conflicts with the Third and Ninth Circuits and with Sixth Circuit precedent, and that the CFTC's interim final rule and proposed rule of the same day "substantially undermine the panel's holding concerning the meaning of swap." The Ninth Circuit petition filed September 9 in the Nevada case is also pending. Source: Straight to the Point, October 12; Gambling.com, October 13.

October 9 — CFTC: casino bets written out of the swap definition, event contracts proposed in

The Commission published an interim final rule (RIN 3038-AF81), effective immediately, excluding bets placed with state-licensed casinos and sportsbooks from the Commodity Exchange Act definition of a swap, and a separate proposed rule that would write event contracts into the definition. Both carry 30-day comment windows. The Sixth Circuit had already held on September 25 that even a contract that is a swap does not displace a state gambling law. Source: CFTC Release 9309-26; our explainer.

October 8 — Supreme Court: the NFL, the AGA, 145 tribes and Gary Gensler file against Kalshi

Amicus briefs supporting New Jersey's petition in Flaherty v. KalshiEX, No. 26-299, were filed by the National Football League, the American Gaming Association, 145 tribes and tribal organisations, former CFTC chairman Gary Gensler and former senator Christopher Dodd. The NFL asks for a ruling before the 2027 season, a 21-plus age floor and adoption of its prohibited-wager list. Kalshi's response is due November 9 after an extension granted September 22. Source: Supreme Court docket 26-299; our analysis.

October 7 — Ohio for 39 states and DC: the states' Supreme Court brief

Ohio Attorney General D. Andrew Wilson filed an amicus brief for 39 states and the District of Columbia urging the Court to grant New Jersey's petition, arguing the platforms' preemption theory intrudes on state sovereignty and raises a major-questions problem. Massachusetts, Michigan, Nevada, New Mexico, New York and Maine are among the signatories. Source: brief of Ohio et al.

October 7 — Michigan: Coinbase agrees to stop by October 10

The Michigan Gaming Control Board and Attorney General Dana Nessel announced that Coinbase Financial Markets will stop offering new sports-related event contracts to Michigan customers and close all open positions by 12:00 a.m. Eastern on October 10, 2026, in exchange for a no-enforcement undertaking while the Sixth Circuit appeals proceed. A federal court had denied Coinbase a preliminary injunction in August. Michigan now has Kalshi under a court order and Robinhood and Coinbase under agreements. Source: MGCB.

October 7 — Oklahoma and California: four tribes launch Kalshi-powered apps, and the OIGA objects the next day

Kalshi announced four tribal prediction apps built on its exchange: PokkeTrades (Alabama-Quassarte Tribal Town, Oklahoma), Greenville (Greenville Rancheria), AIR Markets (Alturas Indian Rancheria) and Sovereign Edge (Kletsel Dehe Wintun Nation), all in California, following Tunica-Biloxi's SaltTrade Derivatives of September 18. The tribes own the apps and rely on the CFTC staff's September 17 conditional relief rather than registering; Kalshi matches, clears and surveils. On October 8 the Oklahoma Indian Gaming Association said the apps undermine IGRA and the state's compacts and noted that none of the four are its members. Source: Sportsbook Review, October 9; OIGA statement, October 8; our analysis.

October 2 — Illinois: a federal judge blocks the licensing law against Kalshi and Coinbase, but not the per-contract fee

U.S. District Judge Martha Pacold granted preliminary injunctions in the consolidated suits brought by Kalshi, Coinbase and the CFTC, barring Illinois from enforcing its sports wagering licensing rules and the related criminal provision against the two platforms. She found the contracts likely qualify as swaps and the licensing law is likely preempted, while writing that the Commodity Exchange Act "does not federalize all gambling or even all sports gambling." She declined to rule on the fiscal 2027 transaction fees, 1.75 percent on a market's first five million sports trades a year and 3.5 percent after, and ordered further briefing, noting a fee high enough to amount to a ban would likely not survive. It is Kalshi's first district-court win since the spring and sits inside the Seventh Circuit, which has not ruled. Source: Legal Sports Report, October 6; Prediction News, October 13.

October 2 — Ohio: ten cease-and-desist letters, one deadline

The Ohio Casino Control Commission sent near-identical letters to Polymarket, Robinhood, Coinbase, Novig, Underdog, ProphetX, Webull, Plus500, Gemini Titan and Moomoo ordering each to stop offering sports event contracts to people in Ohio by October 16 and to confirm compliance in writing within 14 days, citing a civil penalty equal to money taken from Ohio residents. Kalshi is not on the list because Ohio is already litigating against it. Source: Covers; our report.

September 29 — Michigan: the state asks for contempt over Kalshi's advertising

Attorney General Dana Nessel's office moved in Ingham County Circuit Court to hold Kalshi in civil contempt of Judge Rosemarie Aquilina's September 1 preliminary injunction, which bars both the offering and the marketing of sports event contracts in Michigan and carries a $500,000-per-day penalty. The motion cites sports promotional emails received by a Michigan Gaming Control Board regulation specialist through a Michigan-based account, targeted emails about NFL games to another account holder, repeated ads reported by a resident with no account, and a September 20 YouTube ad for a Los Angeles Rams game. Kalshi must show cause on November 24. It is the first state filing to treat national advertising, rather than trading, as a violation of a geofence order. Source: DeFi Rate, reported October 15.

September 25 — Sixth Circuit: not shown to be swaps, and no preemption either way

A unanimous panel (Gibbons, Clay, Bloomekatz) held in Kalshi's suits against Ohio and Tennessee that Kalshi had not shown its sports event contracts are swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act, and that even if they were, the Act neither expressly nor impliedly preempts Ohio's or Tennessee's gambling laws. The ruling affirms the Ohio injunction denial and reverses Tennessee's preliminary injunction for Kalshi, and binds Ohio, Kentucky, Tennessee and Michigan. Source: Courthouse News.

September 24 — New York: James sues Polymarket US on the Kalshi theory

Attorney General Letitia James filed a petition in New York County Supreme Court against QCX LLC, doing business as Polymarket US, alleging its sports, election and entertainment contracts are unlicensed gambling under Executive Law § 63(12), citing contracts on a Knicks game and the New York governor's race and access by users aged 18 to 20. The petition seeks a permanent injunction, an accounting, restitution, disgorgement, civil penalties of three times gains and $100,000 per unauthorized sports-wagering offer. Polymarket removed the case to the Southern District of New York (1:26-cv-08338) the same day. No ruling, and no change to New York access, as of mid-October. Source: DeFi Rate.

September 18 — Missouri: six letters, 30 days

Attorney General Catherine Hanaway sent cease-and-desist letters to Polymarket, Kalshi, Crypto.com, Novig, Underdog and Robinhood, calling their sports event contracts unlicensed sports wagering under Missouri law, giving each 30 days to comply and warning that non-compliance "will result in enforcement action." Missouri's licensed market launched December 1, 2025 with a 21-plus age floor. Source: KCTV5.

September 16 — Ninth Circuit: sports contracts are Class III gaming on tribal land

In Blue Lake Rancheria v. Kalshi a unanimous panel led by Judge M. Margaret McKeown held that Kalshi's sports event contracts are class III gaming when a customer enters them on Indian lands, that the two California tribes are likely to succeed, and sent the case back for a new preliminary-injunction ruling. "Kalshi may reshuffle the cards, but it cannot change the hand," the opinion says. Kalshi has sought en banc rehearing. Source: Courthouse News.

September 11 — Wisconsin: the Ho-Chunk tribal claim is certified for the Seventh Circuit

Judge William Conley of the Western District of Wisconsin certified for interlocutory appeal his May ruling that the Ho-Chunk Nation may sue Kalshi under the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act, and stayed the case; Kalshi asked the Seventh Circuit to take the appeal. It joins the consolidated appeals by the CFTC, Kalshi and the American Gaming Association from Judge Griesbach's July 29 denial of a preliminary injunction against Wisconsin, on which the state's brief is due October 21 and the reply November 12. Underdog separately sued Wisconsin on September 8, after Novig on August 14. Source: Law360; Ticker Tracker.

September 9 — Ninth Circuit: Kalshi asks the full court to rehear the Nevada case

Kalshi petitioned for rehearing en banc of the August 28 panel decision that let Nevada apply its gaming law to sports event contracts, arguing the panel "miscast its sports event contracts as gambling." The petition is pending; the Gaming Control Board's August 14 motion for $120,000-a-day penalties in Carson City is also undecided. Source: Prediction News, September 9.

September 9 — Michigan: Robinhood pulls sports contracts under a court-approved stipulation

Robinhood Derivatives agreed to stop offering new sports-related event contracts to Michigan customers by the end of September 9 and to close remaining positions by October 9, under a stipulation and order that stays in place until the Sixth Circuit resolves the appeals. The agreement follows the September 1 preliminary injunction against Kalshi and concedes nothing on preemption. Source: MGCB.

Week of August 31 – September 6, 2026

September 2 — New Jersey: the cert petition is filed, and the question is one sentence long

New Jersey Attorney General Jennifer Davenport filed a petition for a writ of certiorari asking the U.S. Supreme Court to review the Third Circuit’s April 6 decision in KalshiEX LLC v. Flaherty. The question presented: whether the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act preempts states from regulating sports bets that occur within their jurisdictions if those bets are offered on markets registered with the CFTC. The petition landed one day before the extended deadline and five days after the Ninth Circuit ruled the opposite way for Nevada, which means the Court is being asked to resolve a live circuit split rather than a one-off loss. The last time New Jersey took a sports-betting question to the Court, in the PASPA litigation, the gap between petition and grant was more than eight months, and the gap between petition and opinion was 19 months.

What changed for a trader: nothing today. Kalshi remains open in New Jersey under the Third Circuit’s injunction. What changed is the ceiling: for the first time, the highest court has been asked directly whether a sports event contract is a swap or a bet. Kalshi separately has until September 11 to seek en banc rehearing of the Ninth Circuit decision.

September 2 — Washington: the comprehensive geofence deadline passes

The King County court’s deadline for Kalshi to have a multi-source geofence in place, with $120,000 a day attached to a miss, fell on September 2. As with the preliminary deadline in August, neither the state nor Kalshi had published a compliance statement by the time this entry was written. We will log the affidavit or the penalty order, whichever arrives first.

September 2 was also the date Judge McHale set to decide, without oral argument, Kalshi’s August 21 motion for reconsideration. That motion rests on an August 18 agreement between the state and the North American Derivatives Exchange (trading as OG), under which Washington will not pursue civil or criminal enforcement over OG’s federally listed event contracts until the related appeals are resolved. Kalshi’s argument is that the contracts the state called intolerable from Kalshi are now freely available from an “identically situated” competitor, and that a stay on comparable terms is the least the court can do. In the same filing Kalshi told the court it had already blocked Washington customers. As of this update no ruling on the motion has been published.

September 1 — Michigan: the TRO becomes a preliminary injunction, and the daily number goes to $500,000

Ingham County Circuit Judge Rosemarie Aquilina signed a preliminary injunction barring KalshiEX LLC from offering, listing or matching sports event contracts in Michigan and requiring it to maintain a geofence against anyone located in the state, with a $500,000-a-day penalty for violations. The order, announced by Attorney General Dana Nessel on September 2, replaces the June temporary restraining order and its $120,000-a-day figure. The suit was filed on March 3, 2026 under the Lawful Sports Betting Act. Michigan is now the second state after Nevada with a standing court order that Kalshi must actively enforce rather than merely litigate.

August 31 — North Carolina: Kalshi fines a congressional nominee for trading on her own race

Kalshi’s compliance department published a notice of settlement (KDA-2026-0009, dated August 28) against Laurie Buckhout, the Republican nominee in North Carolina’s 1st District, for buying less than $1,000 of contracts on her own election. Under Kalshi Rule 5.17(z) anyone with “any influence, directly or indirectly” over an outcome is barred from trading it, and a candidate qualifies by definition. The penalty: $2,589.96 and a three-year ban from direct or indirect access to the exchange. Buckhout’s statement to Carolina Journal was “I bet on myself. Literally.” It is the fourth candidate discipline Kalshi has published this year, after fines of $539.85, $784.20 and $6,229.30 and five-year bans for candidates in Minnesota, Texas and Virginia. The NC-1 market itself kept trading: $74,393 in volume as of August 31, with the incumbent Don Davis at 61%.

Why it is in a regulatory log: every state complaint argues that federal registration is a licence plate, not supervision. A published self-regulatory action with a rule citation, a dollar figure and a multi-year ban is the kind of exhibit Kalshi will attach to the next brief to argue the opposite — and the kind of exhibit a state will read back to ask why a candidate could trade at all. North Carolina, separately, has written a 6% tax on prediction-market fee revenue into its budget from January 1, 2027, and recognises CFTC-registered markets as lawful without a state licence; see Is Kalshi legal in North Carolina?

Week of August 24–30, 2026

August 28 — Ninth Circuit: the first appellate split, six days before the cert deadline

A three-judge panel of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit ruled 3-0 that the Commodity Exchange Act does not preempt Nevada’s gaming laws as applied to Kalshi’s sports event contracts, upholding the District of Nevada (No. 25-7516). The panel — Ryan D. Nelson (author), Bridget S. Bade and Kenneth K. Lee — accepted that federal law preempts state law for swaps traded on a designated contract market, then held that sports event contracts are not swaps: Congress used “event” and “occurrence” as distinct words, and a reading broad enough to capture a table tennis match “lacks a limiting principle.” The panel added that CFTC Rule 40.11(a)’s prohibition on gaming contracts remains in force, because the discretionary review in 40.11(c) was never invoked for Kalshi, and that the CFTC’s proposed replacement rule has no legal effect until adopted. Effect: Nevada’s ban stands, and the reasoning contradicts the Third Circuit head-on rather than sidestepping it — the classic trigger for Supreme Court review. New Jersey’s cert petition in Flaherty is due September 3. The Ninth Circuit covers Alaska, Arizona, California, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, Oregon and Washington; Kalshi’s sports contracts are already barred in Nevada and Washington. Appeals remain pending in the Second, Fourth, Sixth, Seventh and Tenth Circuits.

August 28 — Washington and Michigan: Kalshi’s “selective non-enforcement” letters

Kalshi’s head of litigation, Jovy Dedaj, sent letters dated August 28 to Tina Griffin, executive director of the Washington State Gambling Commission, and to Michigan’s Attorney General. The Washington letter says that “numerous other DCMs and FCMs” offer event contracts identical to the ones Kalshi is now barred from listing in the state, that the Attorney General has acted against none of them, and that this is “particularly surprising” in the case of Polymarket, which the letter describes as running an unregistered offshore platform alongside its CFTC-licensed exchange. The framing is that “irreparable harm” cannot be irreparable if it is business as usual for everyone except Kalshi. The Michigan letter is the mirror image: it praises the state for not singling out one operator, noting that Polymarket, Robinhood and Coinbase were denied federal orders that would have shielded them from Michigan enforcement.

Washington’s answer, through spokesperson Mike Faulk, was that the Attorney General “does not have to simultaneously prosecute all entities potentially engaged in the same activity to obtain a judgment against one of them,” and that Kalshi is the largest entity of its kind. What it sets up: the letters and the August 21 reconsideration motion are the same argument in two forums, and neither disputes that Washington can regulate — they dispute whether it can regulate one exchange at a time. That is a narrower argument than preemption, and a harder one for a state to answer in a press statement.

August 26 — Connecticut: the state stops defending and starts suing

Attorney General William Tong and Department of Consumer Protection Commissioner Bryan Cafferelli filed a verified complaint against KalshiEX LLC in Hartford Superior Court. It asks the court to bar the exchange permanently from offering sports wagering in Connecticut without a license, and to order civil penalties and disgorgement of revenue the state says was earned unlawfully. The complaint itemises the products at issue rather than describing them generically: contracts on which team or player wins, on final point totals, on point spreads, on league standings and on individual player statistics. Why it matters: every Connecticut entry logged on this page so far had Kalshi as plaintiff and the state as defendant. This one reverses the caption. Connecticut was the defendant in the CFTC’s April 2 declaratory suit and the respondent in Kalshi’s injunction bid, and it prevailed in the second of those on August 10. Filing its own affirmative action moves the dispute onto ground where the swap question is not the threshold issue — an unlicensed-wagering claim under state law does not require Connecticut to win preemption first. What it sets up: disgorgement is the first remedy sought anywhere in this dispute that attaches a number to trading that has already happened rather than to compliance going forward. Two things to watch: whether Kalshi removes the case to federal court, and whether the pending Second Circuit appeal is now argued against a live state-court claim for money.

August 24 — CFTC: a second federal review, and this one is about conduct

The Commission has widened its inquiry into Polymarket past the legal status of event contracts and into marketing, consumer-protection and compliance practice. The CFTC settled an enforcement action against the same company in 2022 over unregistered event-based binary options, with a $1.4m civil penalty. Why it travels: read next to the August 19 mention-markets review, this is the second federal file opened in a fortnight that concerns how these platforms behave rather than whether they are allowed to exist. The states’ standing argument is that federal registration is a licence plate and not supervision. Two open conduct reviews cut both ways on that — they are evidence that supervision is real, and they are evidence that there is something worth supervising.

Still open, and dated

Washington’s comprehensive geofence is due September 2 with $120,000 a day attached, and neither Kalshi nor the Washington Attorney General has publicly confirmed whether the August 19 preliminary screen was met — eight days on, the record is still silent. Carson City has not ruled on Nevada contempt. The Sixth Circuit has not ruled on Tennessee and Ohio. Nothing in the week of August 24 resolved a pending matter; the week added one plaintiff and one federal file.

Week of August 17–23, 2026

August 20 — Washington: the first deadline passes, and neither side has said whether it was met

Judge John McHale’s August 14 order set two dates, not one: an IP- and residency-based geofence by August 19, and a fuller multi-source screen by September 2, with $120,000 a day attached to the second. The first date has now passed and, as of this morning, neither the Washington Attorney General’s office nor Kalshi has publicly confirmed whether the August 19 screen went live. Why it matters: the September 2 penalty is the one with teeth, but August 19 is the date that starts the compliance record the court will eventually read from. Nevada’s contempt fight began in exactly this shape — a deadline passed, the two sides described the same geofence differently, and the dispute moved from whether the rule applies to whether the company obeyed it. A quiet deadline is not evidence of compliance; it is usually evidence that nobody has filed yet. Worth logging alongside it: Kalshi filed with the CFTC on August 18 to list perpetual futures on equity indexes including the S&P 500, and Cantor Fitzgerald began offering Wall Street clients access to Kalshi markets on August 19. Both push the “we are an exchange, not a sportsbook” argument that every state case turns on — and both landed in the same week the CFTC opened its own review of mention markets.

August 19 — CFTC: the regulator that has been defending the product starts reviewing it

Every federal move logged on this page so far has run one direction: the CFTC defending prediction markets against states. This week the vector reverses. The Commission is running an internal review of “mention markets” — contracts on whether a particular word will be said in a speech, an earnings call or a broadcast — and Kalshi has already pulled its sports-related mention listings rather than wait for the outcome. No order compelled it. Why it matters: every state case turns on whether a federal regulator is actively supervising this product or merely tolerating it. A voluntary delisting under federal review is the best evidence yet for the first reading — and also the best evidence yet that the federal ceiling sits lower than Kalshi's own filings imply. Worth logging alongside it: the CFTC now has actions pending against nine states — Arizona, Connecticut, Illinois, Kentucky, Minnesota, New Mexico, New York, Rhode Island and Wisconsin — and has countersued Arizona over its criminal charges. On the calendar: the CFTC's Innovation Advisory Committee meets August 20 with prediction markets on the agenda.

August 18 — Polymarket ships parlays, and the “we are not a sportsbook” defence gets harder

Polymarket began rolling out parlays to US users, with Kalshi reported to be building combination products of its own. Why it travels: the parlay is the most sportsbook-shaped product in the category. Every state complaint filed to date argues that sports event contracts are functionally identical to sports wagers, and the standard answer has been that a contract is a hedgeable financial instrument while a bet is not. Multi-leg combination pricing is the feature sportsbooks built their hold on, and it has no obvious hedging story attached. Expect it quoted back in the next round of state briefs, and expect the next brief to be shorter for it.

August 17 — Connecticut: a federal order is not a federal ruling

Six days after the CFTC invoked emergency powers to keep Kalshi trading, U.S. District Judge Vernon D. Oliver became the first judge to say what that order is worth inside a courtroom. He denied Kalshi’s renewed injunction bid against Connecticut regulators, holding that a CFTC directive addressed to its own registrant does not displace a court’s ruling on whether state gambling law applies. The denial put it flatly: the CFTC “lacks the authority to dictate an order that conflicts with this Court’s decision.” This is the first judicial test of the August 11 order and it lands where the states wanted it: the emergency order keeps the exchange open, but it does not decide preemption. What it sets up: Kalshi’s Second Circuit appeal now has to win on the Commodity Exchange Act itself, not on the CFTC’s reading of it.

August 17 — Nevada: the geofence deadline becomes a contempt fight

Nevada’s geofence deadline was August 12. On August 14 the Nevada Gaming Control Board told the First Judicial District Court in Carson City that Kalshi missed it and asked for $120,000 a day plus the state’s legal fees, saying board investigators placed nine trades from inside Nevada the day after the deadline. Kalshi replied on August 15, and general counsel Rick Heaslip repeated the point publicly on August 16: the investigators got through only by misstating their residence and by using a prior version of the app that the geofence did not reach. The board rejected that account and said Kalshi “cannot obscure the fact it missed an agreed-upon deadline to comply with Nevada law.” Why it travels: InGame ran the same test in Michigan and found the same gap — the geofence binds only users who have installed the current app, and Kalshi does not force the update. Every state holding a geofence order now has to ask whether the order is being met in fact or only in the latest build. The court has not yet ruled.

August 17 — Pennsylvania: the first bill that regulates instead of bans

Every state move logged here so far has been an attempt to stop prediction markets. Pennsylvania’s HB 2711, introduced by Rep. Tarik Khan of Philadelphia with bipartisan support, goes the other way. It would not tax them, would not license them, and would not ban sports event contracts. It writes consumer-protection guardrails into Title 4 of the Pennsylvania Consolidated Statutes instead: a minimum age of 21, insider-trading rules, a prohibition on death and assassination markets, and oversight placed with the state attorney general rather than the Gaming Control Board. It also bars a platform from operating in the state if any affiliate or subsidiary acts as a liquidity provider on it — a provision that lands squarely on FanDuel and DraftKings, both licensed Pennsylvania sportsbooks, both of which launched prediction markets this year and both of which make markets on their own platforms. A May predecessor, HB 2497, took the conventional route: licensure plus a 22% tax on gross revenue, against 36% on sports betting.

Why Pennsylvania, and why now: Pennsylvania sits in the Third Circuit, and on April 6 the Third Circuit held 2-1 that Kalshi’s sports event contracts are swaps and that New Jersey’s gambling law is field-preempted. It is the one appellate circuit where the exchanges have won. A legislature there has less reason to write a ban and more reason to write terms. What it sets up: the bill is still in the House Consumer Protection, Technology and Utilities Committee, and it collides with the exchanges’ core position — that they are not subject to state law at all. A state offering regulation rather than prohibition is a harder thing to refuse in public and just as easy to refuse in court.

Week of August 10–16, 2026

August 14 — Washington: six market categories ordered off

King County Superior Court Judge John McHale found Kalshi likely in violation of Washington gambling law and ordered it to stop offering markets on sports, elections, politics, entertainment, culture and technology to Washington residents. Markets on commodities, climate, economics and finance may continue. A preliminary IP and residency geofence is due August 19; a comprehensive geofence is due September 2, with a $120,000-a-day penalty attached to the later deadline. The order also bars Kalshi from advertising the restricted markets to Washington consumers.

Why it matters: this is the most granular carve-out any court has drawn. Previous orders treated the platform as a single object. McHale split it by market category, which implicitly concedes that some event contracts are legitimate derivatives and some are not — a distinction Kalshi has spent a year arguing does not exist.

August 13 — Baltimore: a city sues, and names the distributors

Mayor Brandon M. Scott and the Baltimore City Council filed consumer protection actions against Kalshi and Polymarket in the Circuit Court for Baltimore City, alleging violations of the city's Consumer Protection Ordinance through unlicensed sports betting and misleading claims about regulatory status. The city seeks civil penalties, restitution, disgorgement and injunctive relief. The Kalshi complaint also names its distribution partners — Coinbase, Robinhood and Webull.

Why it matters: two firsts in one filing. This is the first municipal action in the dispute, which means Kalshi's opponents are no longer only state regulators with gaming mandates — they are consumer protection authorities, who do not need to win the swap argument to win the deceptive-marketing argument. And naming Coinbase, Robinhood and Webull is the first attempt to attach liability to the distribution layer rather than the exchange. If that theory survives, it changes the risk calculation for every broker that lists these contracts.

August 12 — Nevada: the geofence goes live

Kalshi's agreed deadline with the Nevada Gaming Control Board took effect. Sports, entertainment and election markets are now blocked for users located in Nevada, implemented through GeoComply. The agreement carried a $120,000-a-day penalty for missing the date. Kalshi met it.

Why it matters: this is the first state where the restriction is operational rather than theoretical. It also establishes that Kalshi can geofence by category when the alternative is expensive enough, which weakens the technical-infeasibility argument everywhere else.

August 11 — CFTC: emergency powers, first time since 1980

CFTC Chairman Mike Selig invoked Section 8a(9) of the Commodity Exchange Act to order KalshiEX to continue operating in accordance with the Act's core principles and to refrain from voluntarily suspending operations in response to New York's suit. Selig described a sudden shutdown as an existential threat to the Commission's registrants and its jurisdiction. By the Commission's own account the provision has been used only a handful of times, and not since 1980. Orders issued under 8a(9) are reviewable only by a federal court of appeals.

Why it matters: this is the first time in this dispute that a federal regulator has told a company to keep doing the thing a state is trying to stop, rather than merely arguing that the state lacks authority. Until August 11 the preemption fight was being run through Kalshi as plaintiff. Now the CFTC has put its own order on the table, and any state court order to halt trading collides not with a private litigant's argument but with a standing federal directive. That is a materially harder conflict, and it is the one most likely to force appellate resolution quickly.

August 10 — Connecticut: "not swaps"

U.S. District Judge Vernon D. Oliver denied Kalshi's motion for a preliminary injunction against Connecticut regulators. He held that sports event contracts do not satisfy the statutory definition of a swap under the Commodity Exchange Act, and added that even if they did, Connecticut's gambling laws would not be preempted. Kalshi appealed to the Second Circuit.

Why it matters: the preemption argument has always had a load-bearing first step — the contract has to be a swap before federal law can displace state law. Two district courts have now knocked out that first step, which means the Second Circuit will be reviewing the threshold question and not just the preemption question.

Week of August 3–9, 2026

August 5 — Utah: Kalshi appeals to the Tenth Circuit

One day after losing at final judgment, Kalshi filed a notice of appeal with the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Tenth Circuit in Denver. With that filing, prediction-market appeals are live in seven of the thirteen federal circuits.

August 4 — Utah: the first final judgment a state has won

U.S. District Judge Robert J. Shelby denied Kalshi’s motion for a preliminary injunction, granted summary judgment to Governor Spencer Cox and Attorney General Derek Brown, and directed the clerk to close the case. The court concluded that the Commodity Exchange Act neither expressly nor impliedly preempts Utah’s ability to enforce its anti-gambling laws, and described Kalshi’s reading of the Dodd-Frank amendments as implausible.

Why it matters: almost every other entry in this log is a temporary order. This one is a final judgment on the merits, and it came from the state with the least to gain commercially — Utah has no sportsbook, no lottery and no betting tax, so the usual “states are protecting their handle” framing does not apply. It did not order Kalshi off; it cleared Utah to enforce. See Is Kalshi legal in Utah? for the full timeline.

August 5 — Kalshi signs Genius Sports

Kalshi entered official-data, integrity and marketing agreements with Genius Sports, agreeing to use verified Genius feeds as the single source of truth for settling sports event contracts and to restrict certain market types.

August 4 — Polymarket signs Genius Sports

Polymarket signed a comparable agreement one day earlier.

Why the pair matters: both platforms spent the first half of 2026 arguing they are exchanges, not sportsbooks. Buying official league data and accepting market-type restrictions is what a sportsbook does. These deals are a legal position being quietly hedged in a commercial contract, and they will be read back to both companies in court.

Week of July 27 – August 2, 2026

July 31 — New York sues Kalshi

New York filed suit alleging Kalshi is running an illegal gambling operation — three weeks after Kalshi had already lost its injunction bid in the same state.

July 28 — Minnesota: the ban is blocked before it starts (corrected)

U.S. District Judge Katherine Menendez granted Kalshi, Polymarket and the federal government a preliminary injunction against Minnesota's prediction market ban — the first such ban in the country — four days before it was due to take effect on August 1. She found the plaintiffs likely to succeed on the argument that the Commodity Exchange Act preempts the state law, while declining to hold that every contract offered on the platforms is a swap. Separately, on August 1, Google began enforcing a Chrome Web Store policy prohibiting extensions that facilitate real-money trading on prediction markets.

Correction, August 17, 2026: an earlier version of this log recorded that Minnesota's ban took effect on August 1. That is wrong. The ban was enjoined on July 28, 2026 and never took effect. We have corrected the entry and moved it to its proper date. Thanks to the reader who flagged it.

Why it matters: Minnesota is in the Eighth Circuit, and this is the only injunction in the country running against a state ban rather than against the platform. It also means the Eighth Circuit is now positioned to produce a ruling that conflicts directly with the Second Circuit district courts — a second circuit split forming underneath the first.

Earlier 2026 decisions that still govern

• July 30 — The Sixth Circuit heard Tennessee's and Ohio's appeals together. No ruling yet. One opinion will decide both states.
• July 7 — Judge Analisa Torres (S.D.N.Y.) denied Kalshi's preliminary injunction in KalshiEX LLC v. Williams, holding New York gambling law is not preempted by the CEA. Kalshi filed notice of appeal the same day.
• May 21–22 — Kalshi sued Rhode Island in federal court; hours later Attorney General Peter Neronha sued Kalshi and Polymarket in Rhode Island Superior Court.
• January 2026 — Tennessee ordered Kalshi, Polymarket and Crypto.com to cease sports event contracts. Kalshi sued and won a district-court injunction, which is what the Sixth Circuit is now reviewing.

Dates already on the calendar

• Pending — Any challenge to the CFTC's August 11 emergency order must go directly to a federal court of appeals; Section 8a(9) orders are not reviewable by district courts.
• Pending — Baltimore Circuit Court proceedings against Kalshi, Polymarket and named distribution partners.
• Pending — Eighth Circuit review of the Minnesota injunction, which would bind Missouri, Iowa, Arkansas, Nebraska and the Dakotas.
• Pending — Carson City: whether Kalshi is held in contempt in Nevada, and whether $120,000-a-day penalties run from August 12.
• Pending — Pennsylvania HB 2711 in the House Consumer Protection, Technology and Utilities Committee.
• August 19, 2026 — Washington preliminary geofence due.
• September 2, 2026 — Washington comprehensive geofence due; $120,000 a day after that. Passed; compliance not yet confirmed by either side. Also the date set for decision on Kalshi’s reconsideration motion; no ruling published as of September 6.
• September 11, 2026 — Kalshi's window to seek en banc rehearing of the Ninth Circuit's Nevada decision closes (14 days from the August 28 judgment).
• Pending — Supreme Court docketing of New Jersey's certiorari petition in Flaherty v. KalshiEX, filed September 2; Kalshi's response, then any call for the views of the Solicitor General.
• Pending — Second Circuit review of both the Connecticut and New York denials.
• Pending — Sixth Circuit ruling on Tennessee and Ohio.

The pattern, stated plainly

Between July 7 and August 14 — five and a half weeks — Kalshi lost injunction bids in two federal district courts, had an operational geofence imposed in Nevada, had a six-category geofence imposed in Washington, and was sued by New York. Over the same period it signed official-data agreements that make its product look more like a sportsbook, not less.

The Third Circuit's New Jersey ruling remains the one substantial federal win, and it is now in open conflict with two district courts inside the Second Circuit. That conflict is the reason most observers expect this to reach the Supreme Court rather than resolve at the circuit level. Nothing in the last five weeks made that less likely.

The August 11 emergency order changes the shape of the fight rather than its direction. Every previous federal intervention took the form of an argument advanced by Kalshi and adopted or rejected by a judge. Section 8a(9) is not an argument — it is a standing federal order, reviewable only on appeal, that instructs the exchange to keep trading. A state court telling Kalshi to stop now produces a direct conflict between two live commands rather than a ruling on a contested legal theory. Courts dislike that situation and tend to resolve it quickly, which is the strongest reason yet to expect an appellate answer before the end of the year.

Meanwhile the pressure keeps widening rather than deepening. Baltimore added a municipal plaintiff, a consumer protection theory that does not require winning the swap question, and three distribution partners who had until now been spectators. Minnesota added a second potential circuit split. Neither of those is a loss for Kalshi in the way the Connecticut ruling was — but both enlarge the surface area of a fight the company has said repeatedly it wants narrowed to a single federal question.

Using and citing this log

Reporters, analysts and researchers are welcome to cite this log. Every entry gives the date, the state, the decision-maker and a link to the primary reporting, so it can be checked rather than taken on faith. Attribution to BetG8 with a link back is all we ask.

If an entry is wrong, incomplete, or a change is missing, tell us and we will correct it and note the correction. A log is only worth citing if the people keeping it are willing to be told they got something wrong.

FAQ

What did the CFTC do on August 11, 2026?

CFTC Chairman Mike Selig invoked Section 8a(9) of the Commodity Exchange Act, an emergency provision the Commission had not used since 1980, to order KalshiEX to continue operating and not to voluntarily suspend operations in response to New York's lawsuit. Orders issued under Section 8a(9) can be reviewed only by a federal court of appeals.

Who has sued Kalshi and Polymarket at the city level?

Baltimore. On August 13, 2026 Mayor Brandon M. Scott and the Baltimore City Council filed consumer protection actions against both platforms in the Circuit Court for Baltimore City. It is the first municipal action in the dispute, and the Kalshi complaint also names distribution partners Coinbase, Robinhood and Webull.

Did Minnesota's prediction market ban take effect?

No. Minnesota's ban was scheduled to take effect August 1, 2026, but U.S. District Judge Katherine Menendez enjoined it on July 28, 2026, four days beforehand. An earlier version of this log incorrectly recorded the ban as effective; that entry has been corrected.

What changed most recently in US prediction market regulation?

On August 26, 2026 Connecticut Attorney General William Tong and Consumer Protection Commissioner Bryan Cafferelli sued KalshiEX in Hartford Superior Court, seeking a permanent bar on unlicensed sports wagering plus civil penalties and disgorgement. It is the first affirmative state-court action Connecticut has filed, and the first remedy sought in this dispute that attaches a number to past trading. The CFTC has separately widened its Polymarket inquiry into marketing and consumer-protection practice. Washington's comprehensive geofence deadline passed on September 2; neither side has confirmed compliance.

How is a change log different from a legality tracker?

A tracker shows the current status of each state. A change log shows what changed, on what date, and who decided it. Trackers answer where things stand today; a change log answers what moved this week and why.

Are sports event contracts swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act?

Two federal courts have now said no. Judge Vernon D. Oliver in Connecticut held on August 10, 2026 that they do not meet the statutory definition, and added that even if they did, state gambling law would not be preempted. Judge Analisa Torres reached a compatible conclusion in the Southern District of New York on July 7, 2026. Both are on appeal to the Second Circuit.

Can I cite this change log?

Yes. Every entry carries a date, the state, the decision-maker and a link to the primary reporting. Attribution to BetG8 with a link back is all we ask.

Sources

• Covers: Kalshi accuses Washington State of ‘selective non-enforcement’ against rivals (Sept. 2, 2026)
• The Spokesman-Review: Kalshi claims ‘selective non-enforcement’ in Washington (Aug. 31, 2026)
• Carolina Journal: Kalshi suspends NC-1 candidate Buckhout for trading on her own race (Aug. 31, 2026)
• crypto.news: Kalshi blocks Washington users as court fight grows (Aug. 23, 2026)
• InGame: Michigan judge blocks Kalshi from offering sports contracts (Sept. 2, 2026)
• InGame: New Jersey files petition for Supreme Court to consider prediction case (Sept. 2, 2026)
• The Block: Connecticut sues Kalshi over sports event contracts
• Law360: Connecticut sues Kalshi to end ‘free-for-all’ wagering
• PYMNTS: CFTC investigation of Polymarket broadens compliance questions
• CNBC: Prediction markets scrutiny mounts from regulators and banks
• Gambling Insider: Pennsylvania is a logical place for state-level prediction market regulation, but HB 2711 is oddly timed
• Pennsylvania General Assembly: HB 2711 bill text
• Gambling Insider: Connecticut judge says the CFTC cannot override the court, denies Kalshi injunction
• Gambling Insider: Nevada seeks daily fines as Kalshi blames investigators for geofencing workaround
• InGame: Kalshi geofence applies only to the updated app
• CoinDesk: CFTC orders Kalshi to continue offering prediction markets in New York
• Gaming America: CFTC invokes emergency powers under Section 8a(9)
• City of Baltimore: Consumer protection actions against Kalshi and Polymarket (press release)
• The Block: Baltimore suit ropes in Coinbase, Robinhood and Webull
• Courthouse News: Judge blocks Minnesota ban on prediction markets
• MPR News: Minnesota ban put on hold by federal judge
• KUOW: King County judge orders Kalshi to stop most online betting in Washington state
• GeekWire: Kalshi ordered to shut down sports and election prediction markets in Washington by Sept. 2
• Washington State Standard: Kalshi ordered to sharply curtail operations in WA
• Deadspin: Kalshi settles with NGCB, agrees to geofence Nevada by August 12
• SBC Americas: Kalshi denied by Connecticut judge
• Covers: Kalshi suffers another injunction loss in Connecticut
• InGame: Judge rejects every major Kalshi argument in comprehensive ruling
• Courthouse News: Kalshi loses bid to stop New York from regulating prediction markets
• CNBC: New York sues Kalshi, says prediction market is running illegal gambling operation
• Bitcoin.com: Genius Sports now settles contracts for both Kalshi and Polymarket
• Rhode Island AG: Neronha sues Kalshi and Polymarket

See the full 50-state Kalshi legality tracker

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