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Prediction market change log: every dated rule change, week by week

Change log · Updated September 6, 2026 · 18+ · Not legal advice · By BetG8 Editorial · Prediction Markets

Prediction Market Change Log: Every Dated State Rule Change
Reuse this data. The full change log is available as a downloadable CSV — date, jurisdiction, actor, action, effect and source URL — released under CC BY 4.0. Journalists and researchers are free to reuse it with attribution and a link to this page.

Latest: September 6. Three additions this week, none of them a court order. Kalshi’s lawyers wrote to Washington and Michigan on August 28 accusing Washington of “selective non-enforcement” for leaving Polymarket, Robinhood and other CFTC registrants untouched while Kalshi is geofenced; the Attorney General’s office answered that it does not have to sue everyone at once. On August 31 Kalshi published a disciplinary notice fining a North Carolina congressional nominee $2,589.96 and suspending her for three years for trading on her own race. And September 2 came and went in Washington with no public compliance statement on the comprehensive geofence and no published ruling on Kalshi’s reconsideration motion, which the court had set for decision that day without argument. New Jersey’s certiorari petition, filed September 2, remains the biggest open item.

The short version. Five things moved in the week of August 10, and the biggest was federal. The CFTC invoked emergency powers it had not used since 1980 to order Kalshi to keep trading. Baltimore became the first city to sue, and named Coinbase, Robinhood and Webull alongside the exchanges. A King County judge ordered Kalshi to geofence six market categories in Washington. Nevada's geofence went live. And a federal judge in Connecticut held that a contract on a football game is not a swap. We have also corrected our Minnesota entry — that ban was blocked on July 28 and never took effect.

Why this page exists

There are now at least seven good 50-state legality trackers, and they all tell you roughly the same thing: where each state stands today. None of them tell you what moved. That is the harder and more useful question, because the status of any given state is a snapshot of a fight that is still running, and the direction of travel is carried in the dates.

So this is a log, not a table. Every entry gives the date, the state, the person or body that made the decision, what actually changed, and what it sets up next. We update it weekly and we do not quietly rewrite history — corrections are noted as corrections. If you want current status by state, our 50-state tracker is the right page. If you want to know what happened since you last looked, you are in the right place.

Week of August 31 – September 6, 2026

September 2 — New Jersey: the cert petition is filed, and the question is one sentence long

New Jersey Attorney General Jennifer Davenport filed a petition for a writ of certiorari asking the U.S. Supreme Court to review the Third Circuit’s April 6 decision in KalshiEX LLC v. Flaherty. The question presented: whether the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act preempts states from regulating sports bets that occur within their jurisdictions if those bets are offered on markets registered with the CFTC. The petition landed one day before the extended deadline and five days after the Ninth Circuit ruled the opposite way for Nevada, which means the Court is being asked to resolve a live circuit split rather than a one-off loss. The last time New Jersey took a sports-betting question to the Court, in the PASPA litigation, the gap between petition and grant was more than eight months, and the gap between petition and opinion was 19 months.

What changed for a trader: nothing today. Kalshi remains open in New Jersey under the Third Circuit’s injunction. What changed is the ceiling: for the first time, the highest court has been asked directly whether a sports event contract is a swap or a bet. Kalshi separately has until September 11 to seek en banc rehearing of the Ninth Circuit decision.

September 2 — Washington: the comprehensive geofence deadline passes

The King County court’s deadline for Kalshi to have a multi-source geofence in place, with $120,000 a day attached to a miss, fell on September 2. As with the preliminary deadline in August, neither the state nor Kalshi had published a compliance statement by the time this entry was written. We will log the affidavit or the penalty order, whichever arrives first.

September 2 was also the date Judge McHale set to decide, without oral argument, Kalshi’s August 21 motion for reconsideration. That motion rests on an August 18 agreement between the state and the North American Derivatives Exchange (trading as OG), under which Washington will not pursue civil or criminal enforcement over OG’s federally listed event contracts until the related appeals are resolved. Kalshi’s argument is that the contracts the state called intolerable from Kalshi are now freely available from an “identically situated” competitor, and that a stay on comparable terms is the least the court can do. In the same filing Kalshi told the court it had already blocked Washington customers. As of this update no ruling on the motion has been published.

September 1 — Michigan: the TRO becomes a preliminary injunction, and the daily number goes to $500,000

Ingham County Circuit Judge Rosemarie Aquilina signed a preliminary injunction barring KalshiEX LLC from offering, listing or matching sports event contracts in Michigan and requiring it to maintain a geofence against anyone located in the state, with a $500,000-a-day penalty for violations. The order, announced by Attorney General Dana Nessel on September 2, replaces the June temporary restraining order and its $120,000-a-day figure. The suit was filed on March 3, 2026 under the Lawful Sports Betting Act. Michigan is now the second state after Nevada with a standing court order that Kalshi must actively enforce rather than merely litigate.

August 31 — North Carolina: Kalshi fines a congressional nominee for trading on her own race

Kalshi’s compliance department published a notice of settlement (KDA-2026-0009, dated August 28) against Laurie Buckhout, the Republican nominee in North Carolina’s 1st District, for buying less than $1,000 of contracts on her own election. Under Kalshi Rule 5.17(z) anyone with “any influence, directly or indirectly” over an outcome is barred from trading it, and a candidate qualifies by definition. The penalty: $2,589.96 and a three-year ban from direct or indirect access to the exchange. Buckhout’s statement to Carolina Journal was “I bet on myself. Literally.” It is the fourth candidate discipline Kalshi has published this year, after fines of $539.85, $784.20 and $6,229.30 and five-year bans for candidates in Minnesota, Texas and Virginia. The NC-1 market itself kept trading: $74,393 in volume as of August 31, with the incumbent Don Davis at 61%.

Why it is in a regulatory log: every state complaint argues that federal registration is a licence plate, not supervision. A published self-regulatory action with a rule citation, a dollar figure and a multi-year ban is the kind of exhibit Kalshi will attach to the next brief to argue the opposite — and the kind of exhibit a state will read back to ask why a candidate could trade at all. North Carolina, separately, has written a 6% tax on prediction-market fee revenue into its budget from January 1, 2027, and recognises CFTC-registered markets as lawful without a state licence; see Is Kalshi legal in North Carolina?

Week of August 24–30, 2026

August 28 — Ninth Circuit: the first appellate split, six days before the cert deadline

A three-judge panel of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit ruled 3-0 that the Commodity Exchange Act does not preempt Nevada’s gaming laws as applied to Kalshi’s sports event contracts, upholding the District of Nevada (No. 25-7516). The panel — Ryan D. Nelson (author), Bridget S. Bade and Kenneth K. Lee — accepted that federal law preempts state law for swaps traded on a designated contract market, then held that sports event contracts are not swaps: Congress used “event” and “occurrence” as distinct words, and a reading broad enough to capture a table tennis match “lacks a limiting principle.” The panel added that CFTC Rule 40.11(a)’s prohibition on gaming contracts remains in force, because the discretionary review in 40.11(c) was never invoked for Kalshi, and that the CFTC’s proposed replacement rule has no legal effect until adopted. Effect: Nevada’s ban stands, and the reasoning contradicts the Third Circuit head-on rather than sidestepping it — the classic trigger for Supreme Court review. New Jersey’s cert petition in Flaherty is due September 3. The Ninth Circuit covers Alaska, Arizona, California, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, Oregon and Washington; Kalshi’s sports contracts are already barred in Nevada and Washington. Appeals remain pending in the Second, Fourth, Sixth, Seventh and Tenth Circuits.

August 28 — Washington and Michigan: Kalshi’s “selective non-enforcement” letters

Kalshi’s head of litigation, Jovy Dedaj, sent letters dated August 28 to Tina Griffin, executive director of the Washington State Gambling Commission, and to Michigan’s Attorney General. The Washington letter says that “numerous other DCMs and FCMs” offer event contracts identical to the ones Kalshi is now barred from listing in the state, that the Attorney General has acted against none of them, and that this is “particularly surprising” in the case of Polymarket, which the letter describes as running an unregistered offshore platform alongside its CFTC-licensed exchange. The framing is that “irreparable harm” cannot be irreparable if it is business as usual for everyone except Kalshi. The Michigan letter is the mirror image: it praises the state for not singling out one operator, noting that Polymarket, Robinhood and Coinbase were denied federal orders that would have shielded them from Michigan enforcement.

Washington’s answer, through spokesperson Mike Faulk, was that the Attorney General “does not have to simultaneously prosecute all entities potentially engaged in the same activity to obtain a judgment against one of them,” and that Kalshi is the largest entity of its kind. What it sets up: the letters and the August 21 reconsideration motion are the same argument in two forums, and neither disputes that Washington can regulate — they dispute whether it can regulate one exchange at a time. That is a narrower argument than preemption, and a harder one for a state to answer in a press statement.

August 26 — Connecticut: the state stops defending and starts suing

Attorney General William Tong and Department of Consumer Protection Commissioner Bryan Cafferelli filed a verified complaint against KalshiEX LLC in Hartford Superior Court. It asks the court to bar the exchange permanently from offering sports wagering in Connecticut without a license, and to order civil penalties and disgorgement of revenue the state says was earned unlawfully. The complaint itemises the products at issue rather than describing them generically: contracts on which team or player wins, on final point totals, on point spreads, on league standings and on individual player statistics. Why it matters: every Connecticut entry logged on this page so far had Kalshi as plaintiff and the state as defendant. This one reverses the caption. Connecticut was the defendant in the CFTC’s April 2 declaratory suit and the respondent in Kalshi’s injunction bid, and it prevailed in the second of those on August 10. Filing its own affirmative action moves the dispute onto ground where the swap question is not the threshold issue — an unlicensed-wagering claim under state law does not require Connecticut to win preemption first. What it sets up: disgorgement is the first remedy sought anywhere in this dispute that attaches a number to trading that has already happened rather than to compliance going forward. Two things to watch: whether Kalshi removes the case to federal court, and whether the pending Second Circuit appeal is now argued against a live state-court claim for money.

August 24 — CFTC: a second federal review, and this one is about conduct

The Commission has widened its inquiry into Polymarket past the legal status of event contracts and into marketing, consumer-protection and compliance practice. The CFTC settled an enforcement action against the same company in 2022 over unregistered event-based binary options, with a $1.4m civil penalty. Why it travels: read next to the August 19 mention-markets review, this is the second federal file opened in a fortnight that concerns how these platforms behave rather than whether they are allowed to exist. The states’ standing argument is that federal registration is a licence plate and not supervision. Two open conduct reviews cut both ways on that — they are evidence that supervision is real, and they are evidence that there is something worth supervising.

Still open, and dated

Washington’s comprehensive geofence is due September 2 with $120,000 a day attached, and neither Kalshi nor the Washington Attorney General has publicly confirmed whether the August 19 preliminary screen was met — eight days on, the record is still silent. Carson City has not ruled on Nevada contempt. The Sixth Circuit has not ruled on Tennessee and Ohio. Nothing in the week of August 24 resolved a pending matter; the week added one plaintiff and one federal file.

Week of August 17–23, 2026

August 20 — Washington: the first deadline passes, and neither side has said whether it was met

Judge John McHale’s August 14 order set two dates, not one: an IP- and residency-based geofence by August 19, and a fuller multi-source screen by September 2, with $120,000 a day attached to the second. The first date has now passed and, as of this morning, neither the Washington Attorney General’s office nor Kalshi has publicly confirmed whether the August 19 screen went live. Why it matters: the September 2 penalty is the one with teeth, but August 19 is the date that starts the compliance record the court will eventually read from. Nevada’s contempt fight began in exactly this shape — a deadline passed, the two sides described the same geofence differently, and the dispute moved from whether the rule applies to whether the company obeyed it. A quiet deadline is not evidence of compliance; it is usually evidence that nobody has filed yet. Worth logging alongside it: Kalshi filed with the CFTC on August 18 to list perpetual futures on equity indexes including the S&P 500, and Cantor Fitzgerald began offering Wall Street clients access to Kalshi markets on August 19. Both push the “we are an exchange, not a sportsbook” argument that every state case turns on — and both landed in the same week the CFTC opened its own review of mention markets.

August 19 — CFTC: the regulator that has been defending the product starts reviewing it

Every federal move logged on this page so far has run one direction: the CFTC defending prediction markets against states. This week the vector reverses. The Commission is running an internal review of “mention markets” — contracts on whether a particular word will be said in a speech, an earnings call or a broadcast — and Kalshi has already pulled its sports-related mention listings rather than wait for the outcome. No order compelled it. Why it matters: every state case turns on whether a federal regulator is actively supervising this product or merely tolerating it. A voluntary delisting under federal review is the best evidence yet for the first reading — and also the best evidence yet that the federal ceiling sits lower than Kalshi's own filings imply. Worth logging alongside it: the CFTC now has actions pending against nine states — Arizona, Connecticut, Illinois, Kentucky, Minnesota, New Mexico, New York, Rhode Island and Wisconsin — and has countersued Arizona over its criminal charges. On the calendar: the CFTC's Innovation Advisory Committee meets August 20 with prediction markets on the agenda.

August 18 — Polymarket ships parlays, and the “we are not a sportsbook” defence gets harder

Polymarket began rolling out parlays to US users, with Kalshi reported to be building combination products of its own. Why it travels: the parlay is the most sportsbook-shaped product in the category. Every state complaint filed to date argues that sports event contracts are functionally identical to sports wagers, and the standard answer has been that a contract is a hedgeable financial instrument while a bet is not. Multi-leg combination pricing is the feature sportsbooks built their hold on, and it has no obvious hedging story attached. Expect it quoted back in the next round of state briefs, and expect the next brief to be shorter for it.

August 17 — Connecticut: a federal order is not a federal ruling

Six days after the CFTC invoked emergency powers to keep Kalshi trading, U.S. District Judge Vernon D. Oliver became the first judge to say what that order is worth inside a courtroom. He denied Kalshi’s renewed injunction bid against Connecticut regulators, holding that a CFTC directive addressed to its own registrant does not displace a court’s ruling on whether state gambling law applies. The denial put it flatly: the CFTC “lacks the authority to dictate an order that conflicts with this Court’s decision.” This is the first judicial test of the August 11 order and it lands where the states wanted it: the emergency order keeps the exchange open, but it does not decide preemption. What it sets up: Kalshi’s Second Circuit appeal now has to win on the Commodity Exchange Act itself, not on the CFTC’s reading of it.

August 17 — Nevada: the geofence deadline becomes a contempt fight

Nevada’s geofence deadline was August 12. On August 14 the Nevada Gaming Control Board told the First Judicial District Court in Carson City that Kalshi missed it and asked for $120,000 a day plus the state’s legal fees, saying board investigators placed nine trades from inside Nevada the day after the deadline. Kalshi replied on August 15, and general counsel Rick Heaslip repeated the point publicly on August 16: the investigators got through only by misstating their residence and by using a prior version of the app that the geofence did not reach. The board rejected that account and said Kalshi “cannot obscure the fact it missed an agreed-upon deadline to comply with Nevada law.” Why it travels: InGame ran the same test in Michigan and found the same gap — the geofence binds only users who have installed the current app, and Kalshi does not force the update. Every state holding a geofence order now has to ask whether the order is being met in fact or only in the latest build. The court has not yet ruled.

August 17 — Pennsylvania: the first bill that regulates instead of bans

Every state move logged here so far has been an attempt to stop prediction markets. Pennsylvania’s HB 2711, introduced by Rep. Tarik Khan of Philadelphia with bipartisan support, goes the other way. It would not tax them, would not license them, and would not ban sports event contracts. It writes consumer-protection guardrails into Title 4 of the Pennsylvania Consolidated Statutes instead: a minimum age of 21, insider-trading rules, a prohibition on death and assassination markets, and oversight placed with the state attorney general rather than the Gaming Control Board. It also bars a platform from operating in the state if any affiliate or subsidiary acts as a liquidity provider on it — a provision that lands squarely on FanDuel and DraftKings, both licensed Pennsylvania sportsbooks, both of which launched prediction markets this year and both of which make markets on their own platforms. A May predecessor, HB 2497, took the conventional route: licensure plus a 22% tax on gross revenue, against 36% on sports betting.

Why Pennsylvania, and why now: Pennsylvania sits in the Third Circuit, and on April 6 the Third Circuit held 2-1 that Kalshi’s sports event contracts are swaps and that New Jersey’s gambling law is field-preempted. It is the one appellate circuit where the exchanges have won. A legislature there has less reason to write a ban and more reason to write terms. What it sets up: the bill is still in the House Consumer Protection, Technology and Utilities Committee, and it collides with the exchanges’ core position — that they are not subject to state law at all. A state offering regulation rather than prohibition is a harder thing to refuse in public and just as easy to refuse in court.

Week of August 10–16, 2026

August 14 — Washington: six market categories ordered off

King County Superior Court Judge John McHale found Kalshi likely in violation of Washington gambling law and ordered it to stop offering markets on sports, elections, politics, entertainment, culture and technology to Washington residents. Markets on commodities, climate, economics and finance may continue. A preliminary IP and residency geofence is due August 19; a comprehensive geofence is due September 2, with a $120,000-a-day penalty attached to the later deadline. The order also bars Kalshi from advertising the restricted markets to Washington consumers.

Why it matters: this is the most granular carve-out any court has drawn. Previous orders treated the platform as a single object. McHale split it by market category, which implicitly concedes that some event contracts are legitimate derivatives and some are not — a distinction Kalshi has spent a year arguing does not exist.

August 13 — Baltimore: a city sues, and names the distributors

Mayor Brandon M. Scott and the Baltimore City Council filed consumer protection actions against Kalshi and Polymarket in the Circuit Court for Baltimore City, alleging violations of the city's Consumer Protection Ordinance through unlicensed sports betting and misleading claims about regulatory status. The city seeks civil penalties, restitution, disgorgement and injunctive relief. The Kalshi complaint also names its distribution partners — Coinbase, Robinhood and Webull.

Why it matters: two firsts in one filing. This is the first municipal action in the dispute, which means Kalshi's opponents are no longer only state regulators with gaming mandates — they are consumer protection authorities, who do not need to win the swap argument to win the deceptive-marketing argument. And naming Coinbase, Robinhood and Webull is the first attempt to attach liability to the distribution layer rather than the exchange. If that theory survives, it changes the risk calculation for every broker that lists these contracts.

August 12 — Nevada: the geofence goes live

Kalshi's agreed deadline with the Nevada Gaming Control Board took effect. Sports, entertainment and election markets are now blocked for users located in Nevada, implemented through GeoComply. The agreement carried a $120,000-a-day penalty for missing the date. Kalshi met it.

Why it matters: this is the first state where the restriction is operational rather than theoretical. It also establishes that Kalshi can geofence by category when the alternative is expensive enough, which weakens the technical-infeasibility argument everywhere else.

August 11 — CFTC: emergency powers, first time since 1980

CFTC Chairman Mike Selig invoked Section 8a(9) of the Commodity Exchange Act to order KalshiEX to continue operating in accordance with the Act's core principles and to refrain from voluntarily suspending operations in response to New York's suit. Selig described a sudden shutdown as an existential threat to the Commission's registrants and its jurisdiction. By the Commission's own account the provision has been used only a handful of times, and not since 1980. Orders issued under 8a(9) are reviewable only by a federal court of appeals.

Why it matters: this is the first time in this dispute that a federal regulator has told a company to keep doing the thing a state is trying to stop, rather than merely arguing that the state lacks authority. Until August 11 the preemption fight was being run through Kalshi as plaintiff. Now the CFTC has put its own order on the table, and any state court order to halt trading collides not with a private litigant's argument but with a standing federal directive. That is a materially harder conflict, and it is the one most likely to force appellate resolution quickly.

August 10 — Connecticut: "not swaps"

U.S. District Judge Vernon D. Oliver denied Kalshi's motion for a preliminary injunction against Connecticut regulators. He held that sports event contracts do not satisfy the statutory definition of a swap under the Commodity Exchange Act, and added that even if they did, Connecticut's gambling laws would not be preempted. Kalshi appealed to the Second Circuit.

Why it matters: the preemption argument has always had a load-bearing first step — the contract has to be a swap before federal law can displace state law. Two district courts have now knocked out that first step, which means the Second Circuit will be reviewing the threshold question and not just the preemption question.

Week of August 3–9, 2026

August 5 — Utah: Kalshi appeals to the Tenth Circuit

One day after losing at final judgment, Kalshi filed a notice of appeal with the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Tenth Circuit in Denver. With that filing, prediction-market appeals are live in seven of the thirteen federal circuits.

August 4 — Utah: the first final judgment a state has won

U.S. District Judge Robert J. Shelby denied Kalshi’s motion for a preliminary injunction, granted summary judgment to Governor Spencer Cox and Attorney General Derek Brown, and directed the clerk to close the case. The court concluded that the Commodity Exchange Act neither expressly nor impliedly preempts Utah’s ability to enforce its anti-gambling laws, and described Kalshi’s reading of the Dodd-Frank amendments as implausible.

Why it matters: almost every other entry in this log is a temporary order. This one is a final judgment on the merits, and it came from the state with the least to gain commercially — Utah has no sportsbook, no lottery and no betting tax, so the usual “states are protecting their handle” framing does not apply. It did not order Kalshi off; it cleared Utah to enforce. See Is Kalshi legal in Utah? for the full timeline.

August 5 — Kalshi signs Genius Sports

Kalshi entered official-data, integrity and marketing agreements with Genius Sports, agreeing to use verified Genius feeds as the single source of truth for settling sports event contracts and to restrict certain market types.

August 4 — Polymarket signs Genius Sports

Polymarket signed a comparable agreement one day earlier.

Why the pair matters: both platforms spent the first half of 2026 arguing they are exchanges, not sportsbooks. Buying official league data and accepting market-type restrictions is what a sportsbook does. These deals are a legal position being quietly hedged in a commercial contract, and they will be read back to both companies in court.

Week of July 27 – August 2, 2026

July 31 — New York sues Kalshi

New York filed suit alleging Kalshi is running an illegal gambling operation — three weeks after Kalshi had already lost its injunction bid in the same state.

July 28 — Minnesota: the ban is blocked before it starts (corrected)

U.S. District Judge Katherine Menendez granted Kalshi, Polymarket and the federal government a preliminary injunction against Minnesota's prediction market ban — the first such ban in the country — four days before it was due to take effect on August 1. She found the plaintiffs likely to succeed on the argument that the Commodity Exchange Act preempts the state law, while declining to hold that every contract offered on the platforms is a swap. Separately, on August 1, Google began enforcing a Chrome Web Store policy prohibiting extensions that facilitate real-money trading on prediction markets.

Correction, August 17, 2026: an earlier version of this log recorded that Minnesota's ban took effect on August 1. That is wrong. The ban was enjoined on July 28, 2026 and never took effect. We have corrected the entry and moved it to its proper date. Thanks to the reader who flagged it.

Why it matters: Minnesota is in the Eighth Circuit, and this is the only injunction in the country running against a state ban rather than against the platform. It also means the Eighth Circuit is now positioned to produce a ruling that conflicts directly with the Second Circuit district courts — a second circuit split forming underneath the first.

Earlier 2026 decisions that still govern

Dates already on the calendar

The pattern, stated plainly

Between July 7 and August 14 — five and a half weeks — Kalshi lost injunction bids in two federal district courts, had an operational geofence imposed in Nevada, had a six-category geofence imposed in Washington, and was sued by New York. Over the same period it signed official-data agreements that make its product look more like a sportsbook, not less.

The Third Circuit's New Jersey ruling remains the one substantial federal win, and it is now in open conflict with two district courts inside the Second Circuit. That conflict is the reason most observers expect this to reach the Supreme Court rather than resolve at the circuit level. Nothing in the last five weeks made that less likely.

The August 11 emergency order changes the shape of the fight rather than its direction. Every previous federal intervention took the form of an argument advanced by Kalshi and adopted or rejected by a judge. Section 8a(9) is not an argument — it is a standing federal order, reviewable only on appeal, that instructs the exchange to keep trading. A state court telling Kalshi to stop now produces a direct conflict between two live commands rather than a ruling on a contested legal theory. Courts dislike that situation and tend to resolve it quickly, which is the strongest reason yet to expect an appellate answer before the end of the year.

Meanwhile the pressure keeps widening rather than deepening. Baltimore added a municipal plaintiff, a consumer protection theory that does not require winning the swap question, and three distribution partners who had until now been spectators. Minnesota added a second potential circuit split. Neither of those is a loss for Kalshi in the way the Connecticut ruling was — but both enlarge the surface area of a fight the company has said repeatedly it wants narrowed to a single federal question.

Using and citing this log

Reporters, analysts and researchers are welcome to cite this log. Every entry gives the date, the state, the decision-maker and a link to the primary reporting, so it can be checked rather than taken on faith. Attribution to BetG8 with a link back is all we ask.

If an entry is wrong, incomplete, or a change is missing, tell us and we will correct it and note the correction. A log is only worth citing if the people keeping it are willing to be told they got something wrong.

FAQ

What did the CFTC do on August 11, 2026?
CFTC Chairman Mike Selig invoked Section 8a(9) of the Commodity Exchange Act, an emergency provision the Commission had not used since 1980, to order KalshiEX to continue operating and not to voluntarily suspend operations in response to New York's lawsuit. Orders issued under Section 8a(9) can be reviewed only by a federal court of appeals.
Who has sued Kalshi and Polymarket at the city level?
Baltimore. On August 13, 2026 Mayor Brandon M. Scott and the Baltimore City Council filed consumer protection actions against both platforms in the Circuit Court for Baltimore City. It is the first municipal action in the dispute, and the Kalshi complaint also names distribution partners Coinbase, Robinhood and Webull.
Did Minnesota's prediction market ban take effect?
No. Minnesota's ban was scheduled to take effect August 1, 2026, but U.S. District Judge Katherine Menendez enjoined it on July 28, 2026, four days beforehand. An earlier version of this log incorrectly recorded the ban as effective; that entry has been corrected.
What changed most recently in US prediction market regulation?
On August 26, 2026 Connecticut Attorney General William Tong and Consumer Protection Commissioner Bryan Cafferelli sued KalshiEX in Hartford Superior Court, seeking a permanent bar on unlicensed sports wagering plus civil penalties and disgorgement. It is the first affirmative state-court action Connecticut has filed, and the first remedy sought in this dispute that attaches a number to past trading. The CFTC has separately widened its Polymarket inquiry into marketing and consumer-protection practice. Washington's comprehensive geofence deadline passed on September 2; neither side has confirmed compliance.
How is a change log different from a legality tracker?
A tracker shows the current status of each state. A change log shows what changed, on what date, and who decided it. Trackers answer where things stand today; a change log answers what moved this week and why.
Are sports event contracts swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act?
Two federal courts have now said no. Judge Vernon D. Oliver in Connecticut held on August 10, 2026 that they do not meet the statutory definition, and added that even if they did, state gambling law would not be preempted. Judge Analisa Torres reached a compatible conclusion in the Southern District of New York on July 7, 2026. Both are on appeal to the Second Circuit.
Can I cite this change log?
Yes. Every entry carries a date, the state, the decision-maker and a link to the primary reporting. Attribution to BetG8 with a link back is all we ask.

Sources

📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

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