Prediction market change log: every dated rule change, week by week
The short version. Three things moved in the week of August 10. A King County judge ordered Kalshi to geofence six categories of market in Washington. Nevada's agreed geofence went live. And a federal judge in Connecticut held that a contract on a football game is not a swap — the second federal court in five weeks to say so.
Why this page exists
There are now at least seven good 50-state legality trackers, and they all tell you roughly the same thing: where each state stands today. None of them tell you what moved. That is the harder and more useful question, because the status of any given state is a snapshot of a fight that is still running, and the direction of travel is carried in the dates.
So this is a log, not a table. Every entry gives the date, the state, the person or body that made the decision, what actually changed, and what it sets up next. We update it weekly and we do not quietly rewrite history — corrections are noted as corrections. If you want current status by state, our 50-state tracker is the right page. If you want to know what happened since you last looked, you are in the right place.
Week of August 10–16, 2026
August 14 — Washington: six market categories ordered off
King County Superior Court Judge John McHale found Kalshi likely in violation of Washington gambling law and ordered it to stop offering markets on sports, elections, politics, entertainment, culture and technology to Washington residents. Markets on commodities, climate, economics and finance may continue. A preliminary IP and residency geofence is due August 19; a comprehensive geofence is due September 2, with a $120,000-a-day penalty attached to the later deadline. The order also bars Kalshi from advertising the restricted markets to Washington consumers.
Why it matters: this is the most granular carve-out any court has drawn. Previous orders treated the platform as a single object. McHale split it by market category, which implicitly concedes that some event contracts are legitimate derivatives and some are not — a distinction Kalshi has spent a year arguing does not exist.
August 12 — Nevada: the geofence goes live
Kalshi's agreed deadline with the Nevada Gaming Control Board took effect. Sports, entertainment and election markets are now blocked for users located in Nevada, implemented through GeoComply. The agreement carried a $120,000-a-day penalty for missing the date. Kalshi met it.
Why it matters: this is the first state where the restriction is operational rather than theoretical. It also establishes that Kalshi can geofence by category when the alternative is expensive enough, which weakens the technical-infeasibility argument everywhere else.
August 10 — Connecticut: "not swaps"
U.S. District Judge Vernon D. Oliver denied Kalshi's motion for a preliminary injunction against Connecticut regulators. He held that sports event contracts do not satisfy the statutory definition of a swap under the Commodity Exchange Act, and added that even if they did, Connecticut's gambling laws would not be preempted. Kalshi appealed to the Second Circuit.
Why it matters: the preemption argument has always had a load-bearing first step — the contract has to be a swap before federal law can displace state law. Two district courts have now knocked out that first step, which means the Second Circuit will be reviewing the threshold question and not just the preemption question.
Week of August 3–9, 2026
August 5 — Kalshi signs Genius Sports
Kalshi entered official-data, integrity and marketing agreements with Genius Sports, agreeing to use verified Genius feeds as the single source of truth for settling sports event contracts and to restrict certain market types.
August 4 — Polymarket signs Genius Sports
Polymarket signed a comparable agreement one day earlier.
Why the pair matters: both platforms spent the first half of 2026 arguing they are exchanges, not sportsbooks. Buying official league data and accepting market-type restrictions is what a sportsbook does. These deals are a legal position being quietly hedged in a commercial contract, and they will be read back to both companies in court.
Week of July 27 – August 2, 2026
August 1 — Minnesota ban effective; Chrome extension policy enforced
Minnesota's ban took effect. On the same date, Google began enforcing a Chrome Web Store policy prohibiting extensions that facilitate real-money trading on prediction markets.
July 31 — New York sues Kalshi
New York filed suit alleging Kalshi is running an illegal gambling operation — three weeks after Kalshi had already lost its injunction bid in the same state.
Earlier 2026 decisions that still govern
- July 30 — The Sixth Circuit heard Tennessee's and Ohio's appeals together. No ruling yet. One opinion will decide both states.
- July 7 — Judge Analisa Torres (S.D.N.Y.) denied Kalshi's preliminary injunction in KalshiEX LLC v. Williams, holding New York gambling law is not preempted by the CEA. Kalshi filed notice of appeal the same day.
- May 21–22 — Kalshi sued Rhode Island in federal court; hours later Attorney General Peter Neronha sued Kalshi and Polymarket in Rhode Island Superior Court.
- January 2026 — Tennessee ordered Kalshi, Polymarket and Crypto.com to cease sports event contracts. Kalshi sued and won a district-court injunction, which is what the Sixth Circuit is now reviewing.
Dates already on the calendar
- August 19, 2026 — Washington preliminary geofence due.
- September 2, 2026 — Washington comprehensive geofence due; $120,000 a day after that.
- Pending — Second Circuit review of both the Connecticut and New York denials.
- Pending — Sixth Circuit ruling on Tennessee and Ohio.
The pattern, stated plainly
Between July 7 and August 14 — five and a half weeks — Kalshi lost injunction bids in two federal district courts, had an operational geofence imposed in Nevada, had a six-category geofence imposed in Washington, and was sued by New York. Over the same period it signed official-data agreements that make its product look more like a sportsbook, not less.
The Third Circuit's New Jersey ruling remains the one substantial federal win, and it is now in open conflict with two district courts inside the Second Circuit. That conflict is the reason most observers expect this to reach the Supreme Court rather than resolve at the circuit level. Nothing in the last five weeks made that less likely.
Using and citing this log
Reporters, analysts and researchers are welcome to cite this log. Every entry gives the date, the state, the decision-maker and a link to the primary reporting, so it can be checked rather than taken on faith. Attribution to BetG8 with a link back is all we ask.
If an entry is wrong, incomplete, or a change is missing, tell us and we will correct it and note the correction. A log is only worth citing if the people keeping it are willing to be told they got something wrong.
FAQ
- What changed most recently in US prediction market regulation?
- On August 14, 2026 a King County judge ordered Kalshi to stop offering sports, elections, politics, entertainment, culture and technology markets to Washington residents, with a preliminary geofence due August 19 and a full geofence due September 2. Nevada's agreed geofence took effect August 12, and a Connecticut federal judge ruled on August 10 that sports event contracts are not swaps.
- How is a change log different from a legality tracker?
- A tracker shows the current status of each state. A change log shows what changed, on what date, and who decided it. Trackers answer where things stand today; a change log answers what moved this week and why.
- Are sports event contracts swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act?
- Two federal courts have now said no. Judge Vernon D. Oliver in Connecticut held on August 10, 2026 that they do not meet the statutory definition, and added that even if they did, state gambling law would not be preempted. Judge Analisa Torres reached a compatible conclusion in the Southern District of New York on July 7, 2026. Both are on appeal to the Second Circuit.
- Can I cite this change log?
- Yes. Every entry carries a date, the state, the decision-maker and a link to the primary reporting. Attribution to BetG8 with a link back is all we ask.
Sources
- KUOW: King County judge orders Kalshi to stop most online betting in Washington state
- GeekWire: Kalshi ordered to shut down sports and election prediction markets in Washington by Sept. 2
- Washington State Standard: Kalshi ordered to sharply curtail operations in WA
- Deadspin: Kalshi settles with NGCB, agrees to geofence Nevada by August 12
- SBC Americas: Kalshi denied by Connecticut judge
- Covers: Kalshi suffers another injunction loss in Connecticut
- InGame: Judge rejects every major Kalshi argument in comprehensive ruling
- Courthouse News: Kalshi loses bid to stop New York from regulating prediction markets
- CNBC: New York sues Kalshi, says prediction market is running illegal gambling operation
- Bitcoin.com: Genius Sports now settles contracts for both Kalshi and Polymarket
- Rhode Island AG: Neronha sues Kalshi and Polymarket