Fed rate decision odds, live: what Kalshi and Polymarket say the Fed will do in December and January

Live data · Prices refresh every 5 minutes · 18+ · Not financial advice · By BetG8 Editorial · Live odds

Live · updated 2026-11-06 01:19 UTC · refreshes every 5 minutes

Fed decision at the December 9, 2026 meeting

Polymarket volume $15.1M · Trade on Polymarket · See on Kalshi

Decision	Polymarket	Kalshi	PM − Kalshi	Cheaper YES
50+ bps decrease	0.7%	1.0%	-0.3	–
25 bps decrease	1.0%	1.5%	-0.5	–
No change	31.5%	33.5%	-2.0	Polymarket
25 bps increase	66.5%	64.5%	+2.0	Kalshi
50+ bps increase	0.7%	1.0%	-0.3	–

Fed decision at the January 2027 meeting

Polymarket volume $1.3M · Trade on Polymarket · See on Kalshi

Decision	Polymarket	Kalshi	PM − Kalshi	Cheaper YES
50+ bps decrease	0.5%	1.0%	-0.5	–
25 bps decrease	3.4%	2.5%	+0.9	Kalshi
No change	74.5%	75.0%	-0.5	Polymarket
25 bps increase	17.5%	20.5%	-3.0	Polymarket
50+ bps increase	0.7%	1.5%	-0.8	Polymarket

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026

Polymarket volume $55.6M · Trade on Polymarket · See on Kalshi

Cuts in 2026	Polymarket	Kalshi	PM − Kalshi	Cheaper YES
0 (0 bps)	97.2%	96.4%	+0.9	Kalshi
1 (25 bps)	1.2%	3.1%	-1.9	Polymarket

The short version: this page tracks the two prediction markets on the next Federal Reserve decisions: the FOMC meeting that ends on December 9, 2026 and the January 2027 meeting. Each outcome, from a cut of 50 basis points or more to a hike of 50 or more, shows its live price on Kalshi and on Polymarket. The price of each outcome is the market’s implied probability, so the numbers in each table should add up to roughly 100%.

LIVE MARKETHow many Fed rate cuts in 2026?Trade on Polymarket →

How to read the table

Each row is one outcome that trades on both venues. The Polymarket and Kalshi columns show the price of a YES contract as a percentage, which is also the market’s implied probability: a “no change” contract at 23% costs 23 cents and pays $1 if the outcome happens. Where both sides of the book are quoted we use the midpoint of the best bid and best ask; where the spread is wider than 10 cents we fall back to the last traded price, and outcomes with no live quote are left out. PM − Kalshi is the difference in percentage points. A negative number means Polymarket is cheaper; a positive number means Kalshi is cheaper. Cheaper YES names the venue where buying YES costs less before fees, and is blank when the two prices are within half a point.

Prediction markets vs CME FedWatch

The standard way to read rate expectations is the CME FedWatch tool, which backs probabilities out of fed funds futures. Kalshi and Polymarket ask the question directly: each contract pays $1 if the Fed announces that specific move. The two methods usually agree within a few points in the week before a meeting, and disagree more further out, when futures prices also carry a term premium that prediction markets do not. Kalshi settles on the target range in the FOMC statement; Polymarket settles on the same statement through its own resolution process. Both markets close when the decision is published at 2 p.m. ET on the final day of the meeting. Our guide to trading Fed decisions and the September scorecard show how these markets have performed.

Why the same event has two prices

Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange for US customers that settles in dollars. Polymarket’s main venue settles on-chain and is not open to US residents, and Polymarket US is a separate regulated app with its own order books. The traders on each side are different people with different money, fees and limits, so the books drift apart until someone is willing to buy one and sell the other. Moving money between a bank-funded exchange and an on-chain one takes time and costs fees, which is why gaps of two or three points can sit for days on long-dated markets like 2028 nominations while they close within minutes on a Fed decision the week of the meeting. A gap is not free money: fees on both venues, the bid-ask spread, the cost of tying up capital until settlement and small differences in how each contract resolves all eat into it. Our fee calculator shows what each side costs, and this guide covers how locked profits come unlocked.

Method and limits

Prices come straight from the public Polymarket Gamma API and the Kalshi trade API and are refreshed every five minutes; the time of the last refresh is shown at the top of the page. Outcomes are matched by name, so a market that one venue lists and the other does not appears with a dash in the missing column. Percentages are rounded to one decimal place. Nothing here is a forecast by BetG8: these are prices that other people are paying. Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk, are restricted by age and location, and this page is not betting, financial or legal advice.

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds the Fed changes rates in December 2026?

The live table at the top of the page shows the current Kalshi and Polymarket price for each possible decision at the December 9, 2026 meeting. The price of each row is its implied probability.

When is the next Fed meeting?

The next FOMC decision is due on December 9, 2026, at the end of a two-day meeting, with the statement at 2 p.m. ET. The following meeting is in late January 2027.

How do Fed rate prediction markets settle?

Each contract pays $1 if the target range announced in the FOMC statement matches that outcome and $0 otherwise. A cut or hike of exactly 25 basis points and one of 50 or more are separate contracts.

Are prediction markets better than FedWatch?

They measure the same thing in different ways. Prediction markets ask the question directly and are easy to read; fed funds futures have far more money behind them. When the two disagree by more than a few points it is usually worth checking which has moved most recently.