Oscars 2027 Best Picture odds, live: which film wins at the 99th Academy Awards
Live · updated 2026-11-06 01:33 UTC · refreshes every 5 minutesOscars 2027: Best Picture
| Film | Polymarket | Kalshi | PM − Kalshi | Odds | Cheaper YES |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Odyssey | 57.5% | 58.5% | -1.0 | -138 | Polymarket |
| You Can See Everything | 19.3% | 14.5% | +4.8 | +492 | Kalshi |
| La Bola Negra | 12.5% | 13.5% | -1.0 | +669 | Polymarket |
| Dune: Part Three | 5.5% | 8.5% | -3.0 | +1329 | Polymarket |
| Digger | 3.0% | 1.0% | +2.0 | +4838 | Kalshi |
| Wild Horse Nine | 0.3% | 1.5% | -1.3 | +11329 | Polymarket |
| Artificial | 0.3% | 1.5% | -1.3 | +11329 | Polymarket |
| The Invite | 0.5% | 1.0% | -0.5 | +13693 | Polymarket |
| The Drama | 0.4% | 1.0% | -0.7 | +14715 | Polymarket |
| Project Hail Mary | 0.3% | 1.0% | -0.8 | +15900 | Polymarket |
| Behemoth! | 0.1% | 1.0% | -0.9 | +17291 | Polymarket |
| Obsession | 0.1% | 1.0% | -0.9 | +17291 | Polymarket |
| The Debut | 0.1% | 1.0% | -0.9 | +17291 | Polymarket |
| Elsinore | 0.1% | 1.0% | -0.9 | +17291 | Polymarket |
| Disclosure Day | 0.1% | 1.0% | -0.9 | +18082 | Polymarket |
| Fjord | 0.1% | 1.0% | -0.9 | +18082 | Polymarket |
| The Social Reckoning | 0.1% | 1.0% | -0.9 | +18082 | Polymarket |
| Michael | 0.1% | 1.0% | -0.9 | +18082 | Polymarket |
| Josephine | 0.1% | 1.0% | -0.9 | +18082 | Polymarket |
| Avengers: Doomsday | 0.1% | 1.0% | -0.9 | +18082 | Polymarket |
How to read the table
Each row is one outcome that trades on both venues. The Polymarket and Kalshi columns show the price of a YES contract as a percentage, which is also the market’s implied probability: a film at 15% costs 15 cents and pays $1 if the outcome happens. Where both sides of the book are quoted we use the midpoint of the best bid and best ask; where the spread is wider than 10 cents we fall back to the last traded price, and outcomes with no live quote are left out. PM − Kalshi is the difference in percentage points. A negative number means Polymarket is cheaper; a positive number means Kalshi is cheaper. Cheaper YES names the venue where buying YES costs less before fees, and is blank when the two prices are within half a point.
How the awards season moves the price
Best Picture markets run on the precursor calendar. Autumn festivals set the early field; the Golden Globes, the critics’ awards and above all the guild prizes (the Producers, Directors and Actors guilds) narrow it; and the nominations in January decide which films are still alive. Ten films are nominated, and the winner is chosen by preferential ballot, which rewards a film that many voters rank highly rather than one with the most first-place votes. That is why a broadly liked film can beat a more divisive frontrunner. Titles sometimes differ between venues, for example an original-language title on one and the English title on the other; the table matches them so each film appears once.
Why the same event has two prices
Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange for US customers that settles in dollars. Polymarket’s main venue settles on-chain and is not open to US residents, and Polymarket US is a separate regulated app with its own order books. The traders on each side are different people with different money, fees and limits, so the books drift apart until someone is willing to buy one and sell the other. Moving money between a bank-funded exchange and an on-chain one takes time and costs fees, which is why gaps of two or three points can sit for days on long-dated markets like 2028 nominations while they close within minutes on a Fed decision the week of the meeting. A gap is not free money: fees on both venues, the bid-ask spread, the cost of tying up capital until settlement and small differences in how each contract resolves all eat into it. Our fee calculator shows what each side costs, and this guide covers how locked profits come unlocked.
Method and limits
Prices come straight from the public Polymarket Gamma API and the Kalshi trade API and are refreshed every five minutes; the time of the last refresh is shown at the top of the page. Outcomes are matched by name, so a market that one venue lists and the other does not appears with a dash in the missing column. Percentages are rounded to one decimal place. Nothing here is a forecast by BetG8: these are prices that other people are paying. Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk, are restricted by age and location, and this page is not betting, financial or legal advice.
Frequently asked questions
Which film is the favorite to win Best Picture?
The first row of the live table is the current favorite, ranked by the average of the Kalshi and Polymarket prices. Awards favorites change often before the nominations are announced.
When does the Best Picture market settle?
On the night of the 99th Academy Awards ceremony in 2027. Films that are not nominated in January fall to zero then.
Why are Oscar markets so volatile?
They have far less money behind them than sports or election markets, and new information arrives in jumps: a festival premiere, a guild nomination, a box-office weekend. A single large order can move the price several points.
Can I trade the Oscars on Kalshi?
Kalshi lists entertainment contracts including the Academy Awards for US customers. Polymarket’s main venue is not open to US residents.
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