Live market data
Politics prediction markets: live odds, ranked by volume
Every market below links to its own page with all outcomes, a price chart and resolution rules. Prices are probabilities: 30¢ means about a 30% chance.
Markets listed
60
most active by 24h volume
24h volume
$9.2M
across listed markets
Most active politics markets right now
| Market | Favorite | Price | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Prime Minister of Israel after the next election? Main Election · Israel Election · closes October 28, 2026 | Gadi Eizenkot | 63.8% | +7.2 |
| Alaska Senate Election Winner Alaska Midterm · Senate Elections · closes November 4, 2026 | Mary Peltola (D) | 97.5% | +3.6 |
| Mississippi Senate Election Winner Mississippi Midterm · Senate Elections · closes November 4, 2026 | Scott Colom (D) | 98.0% | +0.1 |
| Elon Musk # tweets October 30 - November 6, 2026? Culture · Politics · closes November 6, 2026 | 280-299 | 69.2% | +48.6 |
| US-Iran effective ceasefire continues through...? Iran · Trump · closes January 1, 2027 | November 6 | 93.0% | +4.5 |
| Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win? (Build Your Map) Politics · election · closes November 3, 2026 | None | 96.5% | +2.9 |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? Trump Cabinet · Geopolitics · closes January 1, 2027 | Yes | 41.5% | -6.0 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by...? Iran · Trump · closes January 1, 2027 | March 31 | 69.5% | -1.5 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Military Strikes · Politics · closes January 1, 2027 | Yes | 12.5% | +2.0 |
| Putin out as President of Russia by...? putin · Geopolitics · closes July 1, 2027 | June 30, 2027 | 8.5% | 0.0 |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30? resign · Hegseth · closes December 1, 2026 | Yes | 28.5% | -4.0 |
| Taipei Mayor Election Winner Taiwan · Politics · closes November 29, 2026 | Chiang Wan-an | 67.5% | +1.0 |
| Trump out as President before 2027? Politics · Trump · closes January 1, 2027 | Yes | 3.6% | -0.4 |
| NC-03 House Election Winner Politics · Elections · closes November 4, 2026 | Raymond Smith Jr. (D) | 75.8% | +1.5 |
| Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027? Politics · Trump · closes January 1, 2027 | Pete Hegseth | 43.0% | -4.0 |
| Netanyahu out by...? Geopolitics · World · closes January 1, 2027 | June 30, 2027 | 69.0% | +30.5 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Reza Pahlavi · Iran Regime · closes January 1, 2027 | Yes | 2.8% | -0.8 |
| Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...? Politics · Supreme Court · closes July 1, 2027 | June 30, 2027 | 17.5% | -16.0 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...? Politics · Russia · closes July 1, 2027 | December 31, 2027 | 69.0% | -1.5 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Politics · ships · closes January 1, 2027 | Yes | 10.5% | 0.0 |
| Iran leadership change by...? Politics · Iran · closes July 1, 2027 | June 30, 2027 | 24.5% | 0.0 |
| US imports Russian diesel by...? Oil · Trump · closes April 1, 2027 | March 31 | 22.0% | 0.0 |
| Republican Senate seats after the midterms (Lower Brackets) Trump · Congress · closes November 3, 2026 | 44 | 95.8% | +2.0 |
| CA-23 House Election Winner Politics · Elections · closes November 4, 2026 | Jay Obernolte (R) | 84.2% | +6.9 |
| Elon Musk # tweets November 5 - November 7, 2026? Culture · Politics · closes November 7, 2026 | 65-89 | 37.5% | -1.5 |
| AZ-02 House Election Winner Midterms · House Elections · closes November 4, 2026 | Eli Crane (R) | 97.2% | +25.7 |
| Pete Hegseth impeached by...? Politics · Post Election · closes January 1, 2027 | June 30, 2027 | 52.5% | +4.5 |
| Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31? Iran · Trump · closes January 1, 2027 | Kazem Gharibabadi | 39.5% | -8.0 |
| Will Trump be impeached by...? Trump · Trump Presidency · closes January 1, 2027 | December 31, 2027 | 57.5% | -2.0 |
| Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by...? Ukraine Map · Politics · closes January 1, 2027 | December 31 | 19.0% | -8.5 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...? Aliens · Politics · closes January 1, 2027 | December 31 | 2.3% | -0.1 |
| Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election? US Election · Elections · closes November 8, 2028 | Democratic | 67.5% | +0.5 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Politics · World · closes January 1, 2027 | Yes | 1.8% | +0.1 |
| Next Prime Minister of Spain? Spain · Politics · closes November 30, 2026 | Alberto Núñez Feijóo | 90.5% | +3.0 |
| Marco Rubio out as Secretary of State by...? Trump · rubio · closes April 1, 2027 | March 31, 2027 | 23.5% | 0.0 |
| Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...? Iran · meet · closes December 31, 2026 | December 31, 2026 | 42.5% | +1.0 |
| Next Prime Minister of Sweden Elections · World · closes July 1, 2027 | Magdalena Andersson | 71.5% | +3.0 |
| 2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory democrats · Midterms · closes November 4, 2026 | Democrats 14-16% | 52.6% | +30.9 |
| Will Russia invade another country by...? Politics · Armenia · closes January 1, 2028 | December 31, 2027 | 19.0% | 0.0 |
| Texas Senate Election Margin of Victory Midterms · Politics · closes November 4, 2026 | Talarico 12%+ | 97.1% | +1.8 |
| Next Senate Majority Leader? Senate · Elections · closes November 4, 2026 | Chuck Schumer | 88.5% | +3.5 |
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? Crypto · Trump · closes January 1, 2027 | Yes | 3.0% | -0.2 |
| New Zealand legislative election winner? Politics · Global Elections · closes November 8, 2026 | National Party | 67.0% | -1.0 |
| What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? Fund · Iran · closes January 1, 2027 | Dilution of Iran's Uranium | 13.5% | +1.5 |
| Iran leader end of 2026? Middle East · Iran · closes December 31, 2026 | Mojtaba Khamenei | 90.5% | -0.4 |
| AK-AL House Election Winner Politics · Elections · closes November 4, 2026 | Republican Party | 94.3% | +8.8 |
| Next leader out of power before 2027? Starmer · Politics · closes January 1, 2027 | None before 2027 | 57.0% | +1.0 |
| Israeli airspace closed by...? (Excluding Holiday Closures) Iran · Israel · closes January 1, 2027 | December 31 | 28.5% | +1.0 |
| Who will announce Presidential run before 2027? Politics · Celebrities · closes January 1, 2027 | Pete Buttigieg | 39.6% | +27.8 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? China · Politics · closes January 1, 2028 | Yes | 8.5% | -1.0 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? Oil · Iran · closes December 1, 2026 | Yes | 3.5% | -0.3 |
| Where will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place? World · putin · closes January 1, 2028 | UAE | 95.3% | -0.1 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...? Politics · houthi · closes January 1, 2027 | December 31 | 7.5% | 0.0 |
| Next Press Secretary announced by...? Trump · Politics · closes January 1, 2027 | December 31 | 60.0% | -8.5 |
| Louisiana enacts data center moratorium by...? AI · Tech · closes January 1, 2029 | December 31, 2028 | 31.5% | 0.0 |
| Next Venezuelan Presidential Election Winner Politics · Elections · closes January 1, 2030 | María Corina Machado | 67.5% | +14.0 |
| Next Prime Minister of New Zealand? Politics · Elections · closes November 8, 2026 | Christopher Luxon | 56.5% | 0.0 |
| Trump declares election interference national emergency by...? Trump · Politics · closes January 1, 2027 | December 31 | 4.5% | 0.0 |
| Which coalition will form the next New Zealand government? Politics · Elections · closes November 8, 2026 | National + ACT + NZF | 50.5% | +7.0 |
| NC-05 House Election Winner Politics · Elections · closes November 4, 2026 | Chuck Hubbard (D) | 96.2% | +3.9 |
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the most traded politics prediction markets today?
- As of November 6, 2026 the most active is "Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?" with $1.2M traded in 24 hours, followed by "Alaska Senate Election Winner".
- How often is this list updated?
- Prices and volumes are refreshed every few minutes from the Polymarket API. Each market has its own page with full price history and rules.
- Are these odds or probabilities?
- Prediction market prices read directly as probabilities: a Yes share at 30¢ implies roughly a 30% chance. Unlike sportsbook odds there is no built-in vig, but spreads and fees still apply.