Live market data
Economy prediction markets: live odds, ranked by volume
Every market below links to its own page with all outcomes, a price chart and resolution rules. Prices are probabilities: 30¢ means about a 30% chance.
Markets listed
60
most active by 24h volume
24h volume
$3.3M
across listed markets
Most active economy markets right now
| Market | Favorite | Price | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Decision in December? Fed · fomc · closes December 10, 2026 | 25 bps increase | 64.5% | -13.0 |
| Largest Company end of December 2026? Economy · Business · closes January 1, 2027 | Apple | 66.5% | +7.2 |
| How many Fed rate cuts in 2026? Rewards 200, 4.5, 50 Deprec · Fed Rates · closes January 1, 2027 | 0 (0 bps) | 97.2% | -0.6 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Politics · ships · closes January 1, 2027 | Yes | 10.5% | 0.0 |
| Another Fed rate hike in 2026? Fed · Economy · closes December 10, 2026 | Yes | 65.5% | -12.0 |
| Fed Decision in January? Fed · fomc · closes January 28, 2027 | No change | 74.5% | -3.0 |
| Fed Decision in March? Fed · fomc · closes March 18, 2027 | No change | 60.5% | +13.0 |
| Largest Company end of November 2026? Tech · Economy · closes December 1, 2026 | Apple | 77.5% | +22.5 |
| Fed decisions (Sep–Dec) Fed · fomc · closes December 9, 2026 | Hike–Pause–Hike | 67.0% | -10.5 |
| Fed decisions (Oct-Jan) Fed · fomc · closes January 27, 2027 | Pause-Hike-Pause | 66.5% | -6.0 |
| How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027? Economy · Finance · closes December 31, 2026 | Below 4.55% | 76.5% | +24.0 |
| Bank of Mexico Decision in December? Mexico · Banxico · closes December 17, 2026 | No change | 92.0% | +12.5 |
| Gas prices on November 6? AAA · Oil · closes November 6, 2026 | <$4.0800 | 97.1% | 0.0 |
| Fed Decision in April? Fed · fomc · closes April 28, 2027 | No change | 59.0% | +3.0 |
| Bank of Brazil decision in December? Brazil · Economy · closes December 9, 2026 | No Change | 81.0% | +6.5 |
| Bank of England decision in December? BOE · Economy · closes December 17, 2026 | No change | 64.0% | -14.5 |
| How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027? Economy · Fed Rates · closes January 1, 2027 | 5.3% | 20.0% | -6.0 |
| 3rd Largest Company end of December 2026? Tech · Economy · closes January 1, 2027 | Microsoft | 63.5% | -7.5 |
| 3rd Largest Company end of November 2026? Tech · Economy · closes December 1, 2026 | Microsoft | 66.5% | -25.0 |
| How high will inflation get in 2026? Inflation · Macro Indicators · closes February 1, 2027 | Above 4.5% | 11.0% | -2.0 |
| ECB Interest Rates: December 2026 ECB · Euro · closes December 17, 2026 | 25 bps increase | 82.0% | -6.5 |
| Fed rate cut by...? Fed · Fed Rates · closes January 29, 2028 | July 2027 Meeting | 51.0% | 0.0 |
| South Korea Annual Inflation 2026 Inflation · Economy · closes January 1, 2027 | 2.7% to 2.9% | 41.9% | +4.7 |
| Brazil Annual Inflation 2026 Brazil · CPI · closes January 13, 2027 | 5.00-5.49% | 37.1% | -2.1 |
| Bank of England Decision in February? BOE · Economy · closes February 4, 2027 | 25 bps increase | 79.0% | +24.5 |
| 2nd Largest Company end of December 2026? Tech · Economy · closes January 1, 2027 | NVIDIA | 54.0% | 0.0 |
| October Inflation US - Annual CPI · US CPI · closes November 11, 2026 | 3.7% | 86.0% | -4.0 |
| October Unemployment Rate jobs · Economy · closes November 6, 2026 | 4.2% | 39.5% | -4.0 |
| Core PCE YoY - October 2026 PCE · Economy · closes November 25, 2026 | 3.2% | 38.5% | -4.5 |
| Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in February? Aus · RBA · closes February 9, 2027 | No Change | 81.5% | -3.0 |
| US recession by end of 2026? Business · Economy · closes December 31, 2026 | Yes | 4.5% | 0.0 |
| University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - November 2026 UMich · Economy · closes November 20, 2026 | 46.0 to 48.9 | 41.5% | +2.0 |
| JOLTS Job Openings: October 2026 jobs · JOLTS · closes December 1, 2026 | 7.5M to 7.6M | 26.0% | +1.5 |
| Bank of Russia Decision in March? macro · Russia · closes March 19, 2027 | No Change | 44.0% | -1.0 |
| Canada GDP: September 2026 (MoM) GDP · Canada · closes November 30, 2026 | -0.2 to -0.1% | 58.5% | +1.5 |
| 2nd Largest Company end of November 2026? Tech · Economy · closes December 1, 2026 | NVIDIA | 64.5% | +7.0 |
| What will the median home value in New York City be on December 31? Parcl · Economy · closes January 11, 2027 | <$445K | 36.9% | +5.6 |
| NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027? Finance · Business · closes January 1, 2027 | Yes | 8.3% | +4.1 |
| How many jobs added in October? NFP · Economy · closes November 7, 2026 | 100k+ | 30.5% | +1.0 |
| South Africa Annual Inflation 2026 Economy · South Africa · closes January 21, 2027 | >5.0% | 45.4% | +4.9 |
| How high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027? Economy · Finance · closes December 31, 2026 | 5.00% | 34.5% | -8.5 |
| What will Fed Rate hit before 2027? Economy · Politics · closes December 31, 2026 | ↑ 4.25% | 67.7% | -9.5 |
| Bank of Israel Decision in February? BOI · Israel · closes February 22, 2027 | No Change | 47.5% | -25.5 |
| Canada Annual Inflation 2026 Recurring · Macro Indicators · closes January 19, 2027 | 3.0-3.4% | 41.4% | +12.7 |
| Japan GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ Annualized)? GDP · Japan · closes November 17, 2026 | 0.0%–0.8% | 32.3% | +7.0 |
| US economic state at the end of 2026? Economy · unemployment · closes February 1, 2027 | Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) | 86.0% | -10.4 |
| Brazil GDP Growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ)? GDP · Brazil · closes December 2, 2026 | <-0.3% | 45.8% | +10.5 |
| What will the median home value in the US be on December 31? Parcl · Economy · closes January 11, 2027 | $407K - $411K | 39.0% | +0.5 |
| Bank of Korea decision in November? BOK · World · closes November 26, 2026 | 25 bps hike | 88.5% | +4.0 |
| What will the median home value in Chicago Metro be on December 31? Parcl · Economy · closes January 11, 2027 | $318K - $323K | 43.0% | +9.8 |
| Core CPI YoY - October 2026 CPI · US CPI · closes November 11, 2026 | 2.6% | 88.0% | +0.5 |
| How low will 30-year Treasury yield get before 2027? Economy · Finance · closes December 31, 2026 | Below 5.25% | 93.0% | +5.0 |
| 1 million American kids get SpaceX shares by December 31, 2027? SpaceX · Stocks · closes January 1, 2028 | Yes | 75.5% | +36.0 |
| How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027? Economy · Business · closes January 1, 2027 | Below 4.8% | 69.0% | +5.5 |
| How low will 2-year Treasury yield get before 2027? Economy · Finance · closes January 1, 2027 | Below 4.40% | 68.0% | +10.5 |
| Bank of Canada Decision in December? Canada · Economy · closes December 9, 2026 | No Change | 67.0% | -0.5 |
| ISM Manufacturing PMI - November 2026 ISM · PMI · closes December 1, 2026 | 55.0 to 55.9 | 26.5% | +6.5 |
| USD x Iranian rials End of December? USD · Iran · closes December 31, 2026 | 2.5 - 3.0M | 38.5% | +9.0 |
| Elon Musk Net Worth on November 30? Tech · SpaceX · closes December 1, 2026 | $800-$900B | 38.5% | +7.5 |
| How high will 2-year Treasury yield go in November? Economy · Finance · closes December 1, 2026 | 4.68% | 39.0% | -28.0 |
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the most traded economy prediction markets today?
- As of November 6, 2026 the most active is "Fed Decision in December?" with $2.3M traded in 24 hours, followed by "Largest Company end of December 2026?".
- How often is this list updated?
- Prices and volumes are refreshed every few minutes from the Polymarket API. Each market has its own page with full price history and rules.
- Are these odds or probabilities?
- Prediction market prices read directly as probabilities: a Yes share at 30¢ implies roughly a 30% chance. Unlike sportsbook odds there is no built-in vig, but spreads and fees still apply.