Who is favored in "Will Russia invade another country by...?"?

As of November 6, 2026, December 31, 2027 is the favorite at 18.5%, followed by December 31, 2026 at 2.9%.

When does this market resolve?

The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2028. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.

How much has been traded?

$706K in total and $59K in the last 24 hours, with about $127K of resting liquidity.

Can I trade this market?

Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

Home / Markets / Will Russia invade another country by...?

Live market data

Will Russia invade another country by...?: live odds and probabilities

Name: Will Russia invade another country by...? prediction market prices
Creator: BetG8

The market favorite is December 31, 2027 at 18.5%, ahead of December 31, 2026 at 2.9%. $706K traded across 2 outcomes.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:03 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Favorite

18.5%

December 31, 2027 · Trade →

24h move

-0.5

pts · 7d -0.5

Volume

$706K

24h $59K · liquidity $127K

Closes

January 1, 2028

421 days left

Politics Armenia Military Actions Geopolitics putin

All outcomes

Outcome	Probability	24h	7d	Volume	Spread
December 31, 2027	18.5%	-0.5	-0.5	$47K	1.0¢
December 31, 2026	2.9%	-0.1	-1.6	$659K	0.1¢

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:03 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

Price history

December 31, 2027December 31, 2026

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying December 31, 2027 at 19% risks 19¢ to win 82¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

Who is favored in "Will Russia invade another country by...?"?: As of November 6, 2026, December 31, 2027 is the favorite at 18.5%, followed by December 31, 2026 at 2.9%.
When does this market resolve?: The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2028. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?: $706K in total and $59K in the last 24 hours, with about $127K of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?: Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.