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Alaska Senate Election Winner: live odds and probabilities

The market favorite is Mary Peltola (D) at 97.4%, ahead of Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) at 2.8%. $6.8M traded across 7 outcomes.

Updated 2026-11-06 01:43 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Favorite

97.4%
Mary Peltola (D) · Trade →

24h move

+3.5
pts · 7d +27.9

Volume

$6.8M
24h $969K · liquidity $1.2M

Closes

November 4, 2026
0 days left

Alaska MidtermSenate ElectionsUS ElectionMidtermsPolitics

All outcomes

OutcomeProbability24h7dVolumeSpread
Mary Peltola (D)97.4% +3.5+27.9$4.2M0.2¢
Sen. Dan Sullivan (R)2.8% -3.0-27.7$2.5M0.2¢
Ann Diener0.1% 0.00.0$40K0.1¢
Dustin Darden0.1% 0.00.0$36K0.1¢
Richard Grayson0.1% 0.00.0$26K0.1¢
Daniel J. Sullivan Jr.0.1% 0.00.0$5K0.1¢
David Leslie0.1% 0.00.0$4K0.1¢

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 01:43 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Price history

0%25%50%75%100%10-1404-2611-06
Mary Peltola (D)Sen. Dan Sullivan (R)Ann DienerDustin Darden

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Alaska U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying Mary Peltola (D) at 97% risks 97¢ to win 3¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

Who is favored in "Alaska Senate Election Winner"?
As of November 6, 2026, Mary Peltola (D) is the favorite at 97.4%, followed by Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) at 2.8%.
When does this market resolve?
The market is scheduled to close on November 4, 2026. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?
$6.8M in total and $969K in the last 24 hours, with about $1.2M of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?
Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

Related on BetG8

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.