Live market data
Science prediction markets: live odds, ranked by volume
Every market below links to its own page with all outcomes, a price chart and resolution rules. Prices are probabilities: 30¢ means about a 30% chance.
Markets listed
49
most active by 24h volume
24h volume
$161K
across listed markets
Most active science markets right now
| Market | Favorite | Price | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Largest IPO by market cap in 2026? Climate & Science · IPO · closes January 2, 2027 | SpaceX | 81.5% | +10.0 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...? Aliens · Politics · closes January 1, 2027 | December 31 | 2.3% | -0.1 |
| Skin cancer vaccine BLA submitted by...? FDA · Tech · closes July 1, 2027 | June 30, 2027? | 91.5% | +16.0 |
| FDA approves skin cancer vaccine by...? FDA · Tech · closes January 1, 2028 | December 31, 2027 | 66.5% | -2.0 |
| SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15? Tech · SpaceX · closes July 1, 2027 | November 30, 2026 | 94.0% | +5.0 |
| Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? Rewards 20, 4.5, 50 · Climate & Science · closes January 1, 2027 | ↑5.5k | 97.5% | +0.1 |
| OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by...? AI · Math · closes January 1, 2028 | December 31, 2027 | 55.5% | -1.0 |
| Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by ___? Culture · Science · closes January 1, 2029 | December 31, 2028 | 28.5% | -8.0 |
| New pandemic in 2026? Pandemics · Climate & Science · closes January 1, 2027 | Yes | 1.8% | -0.1 |
| Russia pneumonic plague spreads abroad? Plague · Russia · closes January 1, 2027 | Yes | 2.2% | -0.5 |
| Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by...? Culture · SpaceX · closes January 1, 2028 | December 31, 2027 | 18.0% | +3.5 |
| How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026? AI · Math · closes January 1, 2027 | 0 | 79.5% | -1.0 |
| Precipitation in Hong Kong in November? Science · Weather · closes February 8, 2027 | 60-95mm | 30.0% | -4.5 |
| AI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by...? AI · Math · closes January 1, 2028 | December 31, 2027 | 67.0% | 0.0 |
| How many West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases will be reported among New York City residents in 2026? Science · Weather · closes April 1, 2027 | 20 to 34 | 76.0% | +1.9 |
| Precipitation in Seattle in November? Science · Weather · closes February 8, 2027 | 5-5.75" | 31.0% | +11.0 |
| Precipitation in London in November? Science · Weather · closes February 8, 2027 | 100mm+ | 24.0% | -12.0 |
| Exponential Time Hypothesis disproof confirmed by...? AI · Math · closes July 1, 2027 | June 30 | 91.0% | +0.5 |
| Plague case in US by December 31? Plague · health · closes January 1, 2027 | Yes | 2.7% | -0.7 |
| Which math problems will AI solve in 2026? AI · Math · closes January 1, 2027 | Ramsey Number R(5,5) | 24.5% | 0.0 |
| Further substantive progress on the Riemann Hypothesis by ___? AI · Math · closes January 1, 2027 | December 31, 2026 | 11.5% | +6.0 |
| How many US births in 2026? Culture · Economy · closes May 1, 2027 | 3.56M–3.59M | 40.5% | +1.5 |
| Precipitation in Seoul in November? Science · Weather · closes February 8, 2027 | 30-45mm | 27.0% | -25.0 |
| Measles cases in U.S. by November 30? Measles · Science · closes December 1, 2026 | 5600+ | 83.5% | +4.0 |
| Will CMI declare the Navier-Stokes problem solved by ___? AI · Math · closes January 1, 2029 | December 31, 2028 | 37.5% | -2.0 |
| PHIVOLCS raises Mayon to Alert Level 4 by...? Science · Weather · closes December 1, 2026 | November 30, 2026 | 49.0% | +15.0 |
| FDA approves Retatrutide this year? Science · FDA · closes January 1, 2027 | Yes | 2.4% | -0.1 |
| How many SpaceX launches in 2026? Rewards 50, 4.5, 100 Deprec · Recurring · closes January 1, 2027 | 140-159 | 75.6% | +1.4 |
| Screwworm National Emergency declared by...? Science · Pandemics · closes January 1, 2027 | December 31 | 13.5% | 0.0 |
| SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027? Elon Musk · Tech · closes January 1, 2027 | Yes | 33.5% | +4.0 |
| How many SpaceX launches in November 2026? Tech · SpaceX · closes December 1, 2026 | <13 | 94.0% | +0.5 |
| November 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record? Science · Weather · closes December 29, 2026 | 1st hottest | 94.0% | +1.0 |
| Marathon Fusion's high-rate gold alchemy confirmed by...? Gold · Tech · closes July 1, 2027 | June 30 | 26.5% | +0.5 |
| US Birth Rate in 2026? (Per 1000 Women) Culture · Economy · closes May 1, 2027 | 51.0+ | 90.0% | 0.0 |
| SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2028? Business · Tech · closes January 1, 2028 | Yes | 77.0% | 0.0 |
| Precipitation in NYC in November? Science · Weather · closes February 8, 2027 | 2-3" | 44.0% | -0.5 |
| OpenAI retracts Navier-Stokes solution in 2026? AI · Math · closes January 1, 2027 | Yes | 6.0% | -1.0 |
| OpenAI retracts Navier-Stokes solution in 2026? AI · Math · closes January 1, 2027 | Yes | 6.0% | -0.5 |
| Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next? AI · Math · closes January 1, 2028 | No solution by Dec 31, 2027 | 33.5% | 0.0 |
| OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to another Millennium Prize? AI · Math · closes January 1, 2028 | OpenAI | 53.5% | 0.0 |
| Anthropic announces a Millennium Prize solution by...? AI · Math · closes January 1, 2028 | December 31, 2027 | 28.0% | 0.0 |
| Trump Space Academy begins training by June 30, 2027? Space · Trump · closes July 1, 2027 | Yes | 10.5% | 0.0 |
| Merck & Moderna merger/acquisition announced in 2026? M&A · MRK · closes January 1, 2027 | Yes | 45.6% | 0.0 |
| Will CMI declare the Riemann Hypothesis solved by ___? Culture · Science · closes January 1, 2028 | December 31, 2027 | 10.5% | 0.0 |
| Rocket Lab’s Neutron Rocket Launch by December 31? Tech · Science · closes January 1, 2027 | Yes | 4.3% | -0.3 |
| SpaceX or OpenAI higher IPO Market Cap? Elon Musk · OpenAI · closes January 1, 2028 | SpaceX | 83.6% | +2.1 |
| New Coronavirus Pandemic in 2026? Recurring · disease · closes January 1, 2027 | Yes | 1.7% | -0.1 |
| Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027? quantum · Protocol Upgrade · closes January 1, 2027 | Yes | 1.8% | 0.0 |
| U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027? AI Regulation · Politics · closes January 1, 2027 | Yes | 9.5% | +0.5 |
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the most traded science prediction markets today?
- As of November 6, 2026 the most active is "Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?" with $65K traded in 24 hours, followed by "Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?".
- How often is this list updated?
- Prices and volumes are refreshed every few minutes from the Polymarket API. Each market has its own page with full price history and rules.
- Are these odds or probabilities?
- Prediction market prices read directly as probabilities: a Yes share at 30¢ implies roughly a 30% chance. Unlike sportsbook odds there is no built-in vig, but spreads and fees still apply.