Get the brief
LIVE Hyperliquid whale tracker: the largest open positions and what they are doing, updated every few minutes →
Home / Markets / Next Senate Majority Leader?
Live market data

Next Senate Majority Leader?: live odds and probabilities

The market favorite is Chuck Schumer at 89.0%, ahead of Chris Van Hollen at 7.1%. $234K traded across 11 outcomes.

Updated 2026-11-06 02:17 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Favorite

89.0%
Chuck Schumer · Trade →

24h move

+7.5
pts · 7d +30.0

Volume

$234K
24h $41K · liquidity $211K

Closes

November 4, 2026
0 days left

SenateElectionsMidtermsTrumpUS Election

All outcomes

OutcomeProbability24h7dVolumeSpread
Chuck Schumer89.0% +7.5+30.0$54K2.0¢
Chris Van Hollen7.1% -3.4+1.8$13K0.6¢
Brian Schatz3.8% +1.8-3.6$8K1.6¢
John Thune0.1% -0.4-23.4$38K0.1¢
John Barrasso0.1% -0.9-1.6$5K0.1¢
Steve Daines0.1% -0.4-1.3$26K0.1¢
Tom Cotton0.1% -1.8-4.9$9K0.1¢
Amy Klobuchar0.1% 0.0-0.1$5K0.1¢
Patty Murray0.1% -0.5-2.5$7K0.1¢
Cory Booker0.1% -0.5-1.6$7K0.1¢
Mark Kelly0.1% -0.1-0.1$6K0.1¢

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 02:17 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Price history

0%25%50%75%100%03-2407-1511-06
Chuck SchumerChris Van HollenBrian SchatzJohn Thune

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve according to the individual who is announced as the next Senate Majority Leader after the November 3, 2026, U.S. General Election. This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, at which point it will resolve based on the first announcement of the next Senate Majority Leader from whichever party holds the majority in the U.S. Senate. If no Majority is established and a leader is not announced by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying Chuck Schumer at 89% risks 89¢ to win 11¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

Who is favored in "Next Senate Majority Leader?"?
As of November 6, 2026, Chuck Schumer is the favorite at 89.0%, followed by Chris Van Hollen at 7.1%.
When does this market resolve?
The market is scheduled to close on November 4, 2026. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?
$234K in total and $41K in the last 24 hours, with about $211K of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?
Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

Related on BetG8

Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win? (Build Your Map)How many government shutdowns by December 31, 2027?Closest Senate Race?Government shutdown by...?Fall Elections Combo: Brazil, Israel, US SenateWhich Senate races will be within 5%?Next US Senate Minority Leader?Maine Senate Election Margin of Victory (Final Round)All live marketsMarkets resolving this weekPrediction market scorecard

Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.