Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?: live odds and probabilities
The market favorite is Pete Hegseth at 43.0%, ahead of Susie Wiles at 39.0%. $1.7M traded across 16 outcomes.
Favorite
24h move
Volume
Closes
All outcomes
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Pete Hegseth | 43.0% | -3.5 |
| Susie Wiles | 39.0% | -11.0 |
| Kristi Noem | 25.7% | -0.9 |
| Markwayne Mullin | 22.5% | -1.5 |
| Tom Homan | 20.5% | -6.5 |
| Stephen Miller | 18.0% | -3.0 |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 16.5% | -4.0 |
| Kash Patel | 16.5% | -0.5 |
| Russell Vought | 16.5% | -14.0 |
| Marco Rubio | 15.5% | +2.5 |
| Howard Lutnick | 13.0% | -6.0 |
| Lee Zeldin | 12.0% | -2.5 |
| John Ratcliffe | 11.0% | -0.5 |
| David Sacks | 7.9% | -1.0 |
| Scott Bessent | 6.5% | +2.0 |
| Dan Scavino | 6.1% | -22.4 |
Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 02:20 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.
Price history
Market rules and resolution
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
How to read this market
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favored in "Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?"?
- As of November 6, 2026, Pete Hegseth is the favorite at 43.0%, followed by Susie Wiles at 39.0%.
- When does this market resolve?
- The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
- How much has been traded?
- $1.7M in total and $205K in the last 24 hours, with about $529K of resting liquidity.
- Can I trade this market?
- Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.
Related on BetG8
Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.