Who is favored in "New Zealand legislative election winner?"?

As of November 6, 2026, National Party is the favorite at 66.5%, followed by Labour Party at 31.5%.

When does this market resolve?

The market is scheduled to close on November 8, 2026. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.

How much has been traded?

$212K in total and $35K in the last 24 hours, with about $283K of resting liquidity.

Can I trade this market?

Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

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Live market data

New Zealand legislative election winner?: live odds and probabilities

Name: New Zealand legislative election winner? prediction market prices
Creator: BetG8

The market favorite is National Party at 66.5%, ahead of Labour Party at 31.5%. $212K traded across 6 outcomes.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:02 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Favorite

66.5%

National Party · Trade →

24h move

-1.0

pts · 7d -3.0

Volume

$212K

24h $35K · liquidity $283K

Closes

November 8, 2026

2 days left

Politics Global Elections Elections Main Election New Zealand Election

All outcomes

Outcome	Probability	24h	7d	Volume	Spread
National Party	66.5%	-1.0	-3.0	$99K	1.0¢
Labour Party	31.5%	-1.0	+4.0	$69K	1.0¢
Green Party	0.1%	0.0	0.0	$11K	0.1¢
ACT New Zealand	0.1%	0.0	0.0	$9K	0.1¢
New Zealand First Party	0.1%	0.0	-0.1	$10K	0.1¢
Te Pāti Māori	0.1%	0.0	-0.1	$13K	0.1¢

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:02 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

Price history

National PartyLabour PartyGreen PartyACT New Zealand

Market rules and resolution

A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid part list votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).

A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid party list votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying National Party at 67% risks 67¢ to win 34¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

Who is favored in "New Zealand legislative election winner?"?: As of November 6, 2026, National Party is the favorite at 66.5%, followed by Labour Party at 31.5%.
When does this market resolve?: The market is scheduled to close on November 8, 2026. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?: $212K in total and $35K in the last 24 hours, with about $283K of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?: Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.