Who is favored in "Iran leadership change by...?"?

As of November 6, 2026, June 30, 2027 is the favorite at 24.5%, followed by December 31 at 8.5%.

When does this market resolve?

The market is scheduled to close on July 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.

How much has been traded?

$29.1M in total and $96K in the last 24 hours, with about $519K of resting liquidity.

Can I trade this market?

Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

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Live market data

Iran leadership change by...?: live odds and probabilities

Name: Iran leadership change by...? prediction market prices
Creator: BetG8

The market favorite is June 30, 2027 at 24.5%, ahead of December 31 at 8.5%. $29.1M traded across 3 outcomes.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:02 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Favorite

24.5%

June 30, 2027 · Trade →

24h move

+0.5

pts · 7d -4.0

Volume

$29.1M

24h $96K · liquidity $519K

Closes

July 1, 2027

237 days left

Politics Iran Iran Regime Geopolitics Mojtaba

All outcomes

Outcome	Probability	24h	7d	Volume	Spread
June 30, 2027	24.5%	+0.5	-4.0	$541K	1.0¢
December 31	8.5%	+1.0	-5.0	$5.9M	1.0¢
November 30	3.9%	+0.5	-5.7	$793K	0.3¢

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:02 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

Price history

June 30, 2027December 31November 30

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying June 30, 2027 at 25% risks 25¢ to win 76¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

Who is favored in "Iran leadership change by...?"?: As of November 6, 2026, June 30, 2027 is the favorite at 24.5%, followed by December 31 at 8.5%.
When does this market resolve?: The market is scheduled to close on July 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?: $29.1M in total and $96K in the last 24 hours, with about $519K of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?: Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.