2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory: live odds and probabilities
The market favorite is Democrats 14-16% at 49.1%, ahead of Other at 45.5%. $396K traded across 14 outcomes.
Favorite
24h move
Volume
Closes
democratsMidtermsCongressElectionshouse of representatives
All outcomes
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Democrats 14-16% | 49.1% | +27.2 |
| Other | 45.5% | 0.0 |
| Democrats 12-14% | 39.4% | -33.5 |
| Democrats 16%+ | 1.1% | -0.2 |
| Democrats 8-10% | 0.9% | +0.2 |
| Democrats 10-12% | 0.5% | -3.4 |
| Democrats 6-8% | 0.4% | -0.1 |
| Democrats 4-6% | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Democrats 2-4% | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Democrats 0-2% | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Republicans 0-2% | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Republicans 2-4% | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Republicans 4-6% | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Republicans 6%+ | 0.1% | 0.0 |
Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:04 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.
Price history
Market rules and resolution
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026. For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered. If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026. For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. A
How to read this market
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favored in "2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory"?
- As of November 6, 2026, Democrats 14-16% is the favorite at 49.1%, followed by Other at 45.5%.
- When does this market resolve?
- The market is scheduled to close on November 4, 2026. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
- How much has been traded?
- $396K in total and $42K in the last 24 hours, with about $318K of resting liquidity.
- Can I trade this market?
- Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.
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