What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?: live odds and probabilities
The market favorite is Dilution of Iran's Uranium at 13.5%, ahead of Iran Reconstruction Funding at 12.5%. $1.5M traded across 6 outcomes.
Favorite
24h move
Volume
Closes
All outcomes
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Dilution of Iran's Uranium | 13.5% | +1.5 |
| Iran Reconstruction Funding | 12.5% | -1.0 |
| Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) | 12.0% | -3.5 |
| ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) | 11.5% | -2.0 |
| 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium | 10.5% | -2.0 |
| Enriched Uranium Surrender | 10.0% | +2.5 |
Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:05 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.
Price history
Market rules and resolution
Rules
This market resolves to “Yes” if a written diplomatic instrument between the United States and Iran that establishes a commitment for Iranian-controlled enriched uranium to be downblended or diluted has been mutually signed or otherwise formally adopted by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves to “No.” A qualifying written instrument must provide for any quantity of enriched uranium held by Iran to be downblended or diluted to a lower enrichment level. The establishment of an enrichment cap or an enrichment moratorium, without a commitment to downblend or dilute already enriched uranium, will not qualify. The instrument must require the dilution to occur within Iran, or for the diluted material to be returned to Iranian control, having been dilated or downblended elsewhere. Iran need not carry out the downblending or dilution itself; a commitment for a third-party entity (e.g., the IAEA) to perform it will qualify. A commitment to remove enriched uranium from Iranian territory does not qualify, unless the terms of the instrument specifically require the uranium to be diluted and the resulting diluted material be returned to Iran’s possession or control.
How to read this market
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favored in "What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?"?
- As of November 6, 2026, Dilution of Iran's Uranium is the favorite at 13.5%, followed by Iran Reconstruction Funding at 12.5%.
- When does this market resolve?
- The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
- How much has been traded?
- $1.5M in total and $35K in the last 24 hours, with about $364K of resting liquidity.
- Can I trade this market?
- Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.
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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.