What are the odds that Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?

As of November 6, 2026, Polymarket prices Yes at 27.5% and No at 72.5%, on $466K of total volume.

When does this market resolve?

The market is scheduled to close on December 1, 2026. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.

How much has been traded?

$466K in total and $235K in the last 24 hours, with about $79K of resting liquidity.

Can I trade this market?

Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

Home / Markets / Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?

Live market data

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?: live odds and probabilities

Name: Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30? prediction market prices
Creator: BetG8

Polymarket traders currently price Yes at 27.5% (-7.0 pts in 24h). $466K has traded on this market.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:05 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Yes probability

27.5%

No 72.5% · Trade →

24h move

-7.0

pts · 7d +1.5

Volume

$466K

24h $235K · liquidity $79K

Closes

December 1, 2026

25 days left

resign Hegseth Politics Department of War Cabinet Shakeup

All outcomes

Outcome	Probability	24h	7d	Volume	Spread
Yes	27.5%	-7.0	+1.5	$466K	1.0¢
No	72.5%	+7.0	-1.5	$466K	–

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:05 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

Price history

Yes

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pete Hegseth ceases to be U.S. Secretary of Defense for any period of time between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Pete Hegseth's resignation/removal by this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pete Hegseth and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying Yes at 28% risks 28¢ to win 73¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds that Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?: As of November 6, 2026, Polymarket prices Yes at 27.5% and No at 72.5%, on $466K of total volume.
When does this market resolve?: The market is scheduled to close on December 1, 2026. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?: $466K in total and $235K in the last 24 hours, with about $79K of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?: Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.