Who is favored in "Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...?"?

As of November 6, 2026, June 30, 2027 is the favorite at 17.5%, followed by December 31 at 4.8%.

When does this market resolve?

The market is scheduled to close on July 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.

How much has been traded?

$4.9M in total and $148K in the last 24 hours, with about $136K of resting liquidity.

Can I trade this market?

Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

Home / Markets / Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...?

Live market data

Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...?: live odds and probabilities

Name: Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...? prediction market prices
Creator: BetG8

The market favorite is June 30, 2027 at 17.5%, ahead of December 31 at 4.8%. $4.9M traded across 2 outcomes.

Updated 2026-11-06 02:19 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Favorite

17.5%

June 30, 2027 · Trade →

24h move

-16.0

pts · 7d -35.5

Volume

$4.9M

24h $148K · liquidity $136K

Closes

July 1, 2027

237 days left

Politics Supreme Court Courts Alito SCOTUS

All outcomes

Outcome	Probability	24h	7d	Volume	Spread
June 30, 2027	17.5%	-16.0	-35.5	$233K	1.0¢
December 31	4.8%	-9.8	-9.3	$1.6M	0.5¢

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 02:19 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

Price history

June 30, 2027December 31

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Samuel Alito announces that he will retire from his position as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announced timing of his retirement may be immediate, at the end of the current Supreme Court term, or at any point in the future. Any qualifying announcement from Alito will count for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced retirement goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Alito or one of his official representatives.

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying June 30, 2027 at 18% risks 18¢ to win 83¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

Who is favored in "Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...?"?: As of November 6, 2026, June 30, 2027 is the favorite at 17.5%, followed by December 31 at 4.8%.
When does this market resolve?: The market is scheduled to close on July 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?: $4.9M in total and $148K in the last 24 hours, with about $136K of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?: Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

Related on BetG8

Presidential Election Winner 2028 Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?Next French Presidential Election Alaska Senate Election Winner Mississippi Senate Election Winner All live markets Markets resolving this week Prediction market scorecard

Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.