Pete Hegseth impeached by...?: live odds and probabilities
The market favorite is June 30, 2027 at 52.5%, ahead of March 31, 2027 at 50.5%. $280K traded across 3 outcomes.
Favorite
24h move
Volume
Closes
PoliticsPost ElectionCabinet Shakeup
All outcomes
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| June 30, 2027 | 52.5% | +2.5 |
| March 31, 2027 | 50.5% | +11.0 |
| December 31, 2026 | 29.8% | +16.7 |
Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 02:17 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.
Price history
Market rules and resolution
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of United States Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, between market creation and June 30, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“. If the named individual permanently vacates the specified office prior to the satisfaction of the criteria for a "Yes" resolution, this market will immediately resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of United States Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, between market creation and June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“. If the named individual permanently vacates the specified office prior to the satisfaction of the criteria for a "Yes" resolution, this market will immediately resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
How to read this market
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favored in "Pete Hegseth impeached by...?"?
- As of November 6, 2026, June 30, 2027 is the favorite at 52.5%, followed by March 31, 2027 at 50.5%.
- When does this market resolve?
- The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
- How much has been traded?
- $280K in total and $68K in the last 24 hours, with about $120K of resting liquidity.
- Can I trade this market?
- Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.
Related on BetG8
Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.