Live market data
Geopolitics prediction markets: live odds, ranked by volume
Every market below links to its own page with all outcomes, a price chart and resolution rules. Prices are probabilities: 30¢ means about a 30% chance.
Markets listed
60
most active by 24h volume
24h volume
$6.5M
across listed markets
Most active geopolitics markets right now
| Market | Favorite | Price | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Prime Minister of Israel after the next election? Main Election · Israel Election · closes October 28, 2026 | Gadi Eizenkot | 63.8% | +7.2 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...? Iran · Israel · closes December 31, 2026 | November 6 | 98.4% | +1.4 |
| US-Iran effective ceasefire continues through...? Iran · Trump · closes January 1, 2027 | November 6 | 92.5% | +4.0 |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? Trump Cabinet · Geopolitics · closes January 1, 2027 | Yes | 41.5% | -6.0 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by...? Iran · Trump · closes January 1, 2027 | March 31 | 69.5% | -1.5 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Military Strikes · Politics · closes January 1, 2027 | Yes | 12.5% | +2.0 |
| Putin out as President of Russia by...? putin · Geopolitics · closes July 1, 2027 | June 30, 2027 | 8.5% | 0.0 |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…? Iran · US-Iran · closes January 1, 2027 | December 31 | 9.5% | +3.0 |
| Trump out as President before 2027? Politics · Trump · closes January 1, 2027 | Yes | 3.5% | -0.4 |
| Netanyahu out by...? Geopolitics · World · closes January 1, 2027 | June 30, 2027 | 65.5% | +27.0 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Reza Pahlavi · Iran Regime · closes January 1, 2027 | Yes | 2.8% | -0.8 |
| Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...? Geopolitics · Ukraine Peace Deal · closes December 31, 2026 | December 31, 2027 | 42.0% | -11.5 |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...? Iran · Trump · closes January 1, 2027 | December 31 | 35.5% | +1.5 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...? Politics · Russia · closes July 1, 2027 | December 31, 2027 | 69.0% | -1.5 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Politics · ships · closes January 1, 2027 | Yes | 10.5% | 0.0 |
| Iran full airspace closure by...? Iran · close · closes January 1, 2027 | December 31 | 27.5% | +3.5 |
| Iran leadership change by...? Politics · Iran · closes July 1, 2027 | June 30, 2027 | 24.5% | 0.0 |
| US imports Russian diesel by...? Oil · Trump · closes April 1, 2027 | March 31 | 22.0% | 0.0 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...? Iran Regime · Iran · closes January 1, 2027 | December 31 | 5.5% | +1.0 |
| Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31? Iran · Trump · closes January 1, 2027 | Kazem Gharibabadi | 39.5% | -8.0 |
| Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by...? Ukraine Map · Politics · closes January 1, 2027 | December 31 | 19.0% | -8.5 |
| Which cities will Russia enter by December 31? Geopolitics · Ukraine Map · closes January 1, 2027 | Druzkhivka | 18.0% | +0.5 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Politics · World · closes January 1, 2027 | Yes | 1.8% | +0.1 |
| Marco Rubio out as Secretary of State by...? Trump · rubio · closes April 1, 2027 | March 31, 2027 | 23.0% | 0.0 |
| Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...? Iran · meet · closes December 31, 2026 | December 31, 2026 | 43.0% | +1.5 |
| NATO x Russia military clash by...? NATO · Trump Presidency · closes January 3, 2027 | December 31 | 12.5% | 0.0 |
| Crude Oil all time high by...? Oil · Geopolitics · closes January 1, 2027 | March 31, 2027 | 20.0% | +2.0 |
| Will Russia invade another country by...? Politics · Armenia · closes January 1, 2028 | December 31, 2027 | 19.0% | 0.0 |
| What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? Fund · Iran · closes January 1, 2027 | Dilution of Iran's Uranium | 13.5% | +1.5 |
| Iran leader end of 2026? Middle East · Iran · closes December 31, 2026 | Mojtaba Khamenei | 90.5% | -0.4 |
| Next leader out of power before 2027? Starmer · Politics · closes January 1, 2027 | None before 2027 | 57.0% | +1.0 |
| Israeli airspace closed by...? (Excluding Holiday Closures) Iran · Israel · closes January 1, 2027 | December 31 | 28.5% | +1.0 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? China · Politics · closes January 1, 2028 | Yes | 8.5% | -1.0 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? Oil · Iran · closes December 1, 2026 | Yes | 3.5% | -0.3 |
| Where will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place? World · putin · closes January 1, 2028 | UAE | 95.3% | -0.1 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...? Politics · houthi · closes January 1, 2027 | December 31 | 7.5% | 0.0 |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? HFC · Geopolitics · closes January 1, 2027 | Yes | 1.8% | -0.1 |
| Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? Israel · Turkey · closes January 1, 2027 | Yes | 3.4% | -1.7 |
| Saudi airspace closed by...? Iran · Politics · closes January 1, 2027 | December 31 | 8.5% | -1.5 |
| Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026? Politics · putin · closes January 1, 2027 | China | 86.5% | -2.0 |
| Will Iran damage undersea internet cables by...? Iran · Israel · closes January 1, 2027 | December 31 | 11.5% | +0.5 |
| Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by...? Iran · Yemen · closes January 1, 2027 | December 31 | 58.5% | +27.5 |
| Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...? Iran · Trump · closes November 1, 2026 | December 31 | 28.5% | 0.0 |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by...? Geopolitics · Ukraine · closes January 1, 2027 | December 31, 2027 | 30.5% | -0.5 |
| Houthis capture Taiz by...? (castle) Iran · Yemen · closes January 1, 2027 | December 31 | 28.5% | 0.0 |
| Next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs? World · Israel · closes March 1, 2027 | Person I | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...? Geopolitics · Trump · closes January 1, 2027 | December 31 | 5.5% | 0.0 |
| Iran Nuke before 2027? Nuclear · Politics · closes January 1, 2027 | Yes | 2.5% | -0.8 |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...? Politics · U.S. x Iran · closes January 1, 2027 | December 31 | 3.5% | +1.3 |
| USS Theodore Roosevelt arrives in CENTCOM by...? Navy · Sailor · closes December 1, 2026 | November 30 | 85.9% | -9.7 |
| Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31? Iran · Trump · closes January 1, 2027 | Yes | 2.3% | -1.6 |
| Which coalition will form the next Israeli government? World · Israel · closes January 1, 2028 | No government formed | 31.5% | -19.5 |
| Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...? Politics · Ukraine Map · closes January 1, 2027 | June 30, 2027 | 56.5% | +0.5 |
| Will Russia capture Orikhiv by...? Geopolitics · Ukraine Map · closes January 1, 2027 | June 30, 2027 | 42.0% | -10.5 |
| Will Russia invade a NATO country by...? Politics · World · closes January 1, 2027 | December 31, 2026 | 2.1% | -0.1 |
| US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? Reza Pahlavi · Iran Regime · closes January 1, 2027 | Yes | 2.8% | +0.5 |
| Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...? putin · Russia · closes January 1, 2027 | December 31 | 97.4% | -0.1 |
| Trump, Putin, and Xi seen together before 2027? China · Trump · closes January 1, 2027 | Yes | 88.0% | -0.5 |
| Where will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place...? Iran · Trump · closes December 31, 2026 | No Meeting by December 31 | 57.0% | -0.5 |
| UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31? Politics · Geopolitics · closes January 1, 2027 | Yes | 9.5% | 0.0 |
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the most traded geopolitics prediction markets today?
- As of November 6, 2026 the most active is "Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?" with $1.2M traded in 24 hours, followed by "Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?".
- How often is this list updated?
- Prices and volumes are refreshed every few minutes from the Polymarket API. Each market has its own page with full price history and rules.
- Are these odds or probabilities?
- Prediction market prices read directly as probabilities: a Yes share at 30¢ implies roughly a 30% chance. Unlike sportsbook odds there is no built-in vig, but spreads and fees still apply.