Live market data
Tech prediction markets: live odds, ranked by volume
Every market below links to its own page with all outcomes, a price chart and resolution rules. Prices are probabilities: 30¢ means about a 30% chance.
Markets listed
60
most active by 24h volume
24h volume
$770K
across listed markets
Most active tech markets right now
| Market | Favorite | Price | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Largest Company end of December 2026? Economy · Business · closes January 1, 2027 | Apple | 69.1% | +9.8 |
| AI bubble burst by...? Business · Tech · closes July 1, 2027 | June 30, 2027 | 24.0% | +1.5 |
| Largest Company end of November 2026? Tech · Economy · closes December 1, 2026 | Apple | 77.0% | +22.0 |
| Which company has best AI model end of 2026? Tech · AI · closes December 31, 2026 | 60.5% | 0.0 | |
| GPT Astra 6.1+ released on...? AI · gpt · closes December 1, 2026 | November 6 | 19.0% | -7.0 |
| Which company has the best AI model end of November? AI · Tech · closes December 1, 2026 | 72.5% | +2.0 | |
| Louisiana enacts data center moratorium by...? AI · Tech · closes January 1, 2029 | December 31, 2028 | 31.5% | 0.0 |
| Gemini Carbon released on...? AI · Tech · closes December 1, 2026 | November 10 | 40.7% | +15.7 |
| Missouri enacts data center moratorium by...? AI · Tech · closes January 1, 2029 | December 31, 2028 | 31.5% | 0.0 |
| Gemini Carbon released by...? AI · Tech · closes January 1, 2027 | December 31 | 98.4% | 0.0 |
| When will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released? AI · gpt · closes February 1, 2027 | November 9–November 15 | 51.5% | +33.0 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...? AI · Tech · closes December 31, 2026 | December 31 | 94.3% | +0.3 |
| Two SpaceX Starships dock together by…? SpaceX · Space · closes January 1, 2028 | December 31, 2027 | 60.5% | -6.5 |
| GPT Astra 6.1+: Text Arena Rank Debut? AI · gpt · closes July 1, 2027 | Top 20 | 42.5% | +15.5 |
| Skin cancer vaccine BLA submitted by...? FDA · Tech · closes July 1, 2027 | June 30, 2027? | 91.5% | +16.0 |
| 3rd Largest Company end of December 2026? Tech · Economy · closes January 1, 2027 | Microsoft | 63.5% | -7.5 |
| 3rd Largest Company end of November 2026? Tech · Economy · closes December 1, 2026 | Microsoft | 66.0% | -25.5 |
| Anthropic announces bankruptcy by...? Tech · Finance · closes January 1, 2030 | December 31, 2029 | 20.5% | -1.0 |
| GPT Astra 6.1+: Text Arena Debut? AI · gpt · closes July 1, 2027 | 1430+ | 81.0% | +21.0 |
| Next GPT Terra Model (5.7+): Text Arena Debut? AI · gpt · closes July 1, 2027 | 1440+ | 26.6% | -11.6 |
| 2nd Largest Company end of December 2026? Tech · Economy · closes January 1, 2027 | NVIDIA | 54.0% | 0.0 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+): Text Arena Debut? AI · Tech · closes July 1, 2027 | 1500+ | 93.6% | 0.0 |
| FDA approves skin cancer vaccine by...? FDA · Tech · closes January 1, 2028 | December 31, 2027 | 66.5% | -2.0 |
| SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15? Tech · SpaceX · closes July 1, 2027 | November 30, 2026 | 94.0% | +5.0 |
| Next GPT Sol (6.2+) released by...? AI · gpt · closes January 1, 2027 | December 31 | 97.0% | +17.1 |
| Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by...? AI · Tech · closes January 1, 2027 | December 31 | 15.5% | -18.5 |
| GPU rental prices (RTX 6000) end of November 2026? AI · Ornn · closes December 1, 2026 | $1.50-$1.75 | 49.0% | +42.0 |
| GPU rental prices (H100) end of December 2026? AI · H100 · closes January 1, 2027 | $3.25+ | 50.0% | +14.0 |
| #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 6? app · Tech · closes November 7, 2026 | TikTok Pro - Events | 75.0% | +41.5 |
| SpaceX becomes a US mobile carrier by ___? SPCX · Tech · closes January 1, 2028 | December 31, 2027 | 43.0% | -1.0 |
| Which company has the best Text-to-Video AI end of November? AI · Tech · closes December 1, 2026 | 91.3% | -3.9 | |
| When will Gemini Carbon be released? AI · Tech · closes January 4, 2027 | November 9–November 15 | 80.5% | 0.0 |
| Will a Chinese company have a top ___ AI model by December 31? Tech · AI · closes January 1, 2027 | #3 | 15.5% | +0.5 |
| 2nd Largest Company end of November 2026? Tech · Economy · closes December 1, 2026 | NVIDIA | 64.5% | +7.0 |
| Next Google Gemini Pro Model: Arena Debut? Gemini · Gemini Pro · closes January 1, 2027 | 1495+ | 13.5% | +3.0 |
| Best Chinese AI Company end of November? AI · Tech · closes December 1, 2026 | Other | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by...? AI · Math · closes January 1, 2028 | December 31, 2027 | 55.5% | -1.0 |
| GPT Astra 6.1+: HLE-Diamond Debut? AI · gpt · closes July 1, 2027 | 55%+ | 93.5% | 0.0 |
| Second-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of November? AI · Tech · closes December 1, 2026 | OpenAI | 53.0% | +3.5 |
| Which company has #1 AI model end of January? (Style Control On) AI · Tech · closes February 1, 2027 | Company A | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Next Claude Opus (5.6+) released on...? AI · Tech · closes December 1, 2026 | No release by November 30 | 43.0% | +7.5 |
| Top 5 Most Searched People on Google in the US 2026 Tech · google · closes December 31, 2026 | Lindsay Clancy | 80.5% | +6.5 |
| Indiana enacts data center moratorium by...? AI · Tech · closes January 1, 2029 | December 31, 2028 | 30.5% | 0.0 |
| Ohio enacts data center moratorium by...? AI · Tech · closes January 1, 2029 | December 31, 2028 | 33.0% | +0.5 |
| OpenAI announces bankruptcy by...? Tech · OpenAI · closes January 1, 2030 | December 31, 2029 | 22.0% | -0.5 |
| Next DeepSeek Pro released by...? AI · Tech · closes January 1, 2027 | December 31 | 36.5% | +2.5 |
| #1 Searched Person on Google 2026? Tech · google · closes April 1, 2027 | Person 2 | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Kimi K3.1 Pro: Text Arena Debut? AI · Kimi · closes July 1, 2027 | 1470+ | 38.5% | -9.0 |
| OpenRouter token usage week of November 2? AI · Tech · closes November 9, 2026 | 205T+ | 78.5% | -6.0 |
| Which company has the best Image-to-Video AI end of November? AI · Tech · closes December 1, 2026 | 73.0% | +30.4 | |
| Which company has the best Code Arena WebDev AI model end of November? AI · Tech · closes December 1, 2026 | Anthropic | 77.5% | -3.0 |
| Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by...? Tesla · Elon Musk · closes January 1, 2028 | December 31, 2027 | 68.5% | -2.0 |
| Next Gemini Flash Model (3.9+) released by...? AI · Tech · closes January 1, 2027 | December 31 | 63.0% | +21.5 |
| #2 AI Lab end of December? (Style Control On) AI · Tech · closes January 1, 2027 | Company A | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Texas enacts data center moratorium by...? AI · Tech · closes January 1, 2029 | December 31, 2028 | 33.5% | -0.5 |
| #1 Searched Actor on Google 2026? Tech · google · closes April 1, 2027 | Inde Navarrette | 63.0% | +5.5 |
| # of ChatGPT Outage Days in November 2026? AI · gpt · closes December 1, 2026 | <3 | 62.0% | +19.5 |
| Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? Apple Event · Tech · closes January 1, 2027 | Yes | 97.4% | -0.4 |
| Will GTA VI break the 24-hour sales record? Tech · GTA 6 · closes February 1, 2027 | Yes | 91.0% | +3.5 |
| Which company has the best AI Agent end of November? AI · Tech · closes December 1, 2026 | Anthropic | 79.0% | +0.5 |
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the most traded tech prediction markets today?
- As of November 6, 2026 the most active is "Largest Company end of December 2026?" with $226K traded in 24 hours, followed by "AI bubble burst by...?".
- How often is this list updated?
- Prices and volumes are refreshed every few minutes from the Polymarket API. Each market has its own page with full price history and rules.
- Are these odds or probabilities?
- Prediction market prices read directly as probabilities: a Yes share at 30¢ implies roughly a 30% chance. Unlike sportsbook odds there is no built-in vig, but spreads and fees still apply.