Live market data
Business prediction markets: live odds, ranked by volume
Every market below links to its own page with all outcomes, a price chart and resolution rules. Prices are probabilities: 30¢ means about a 30% chance.
Markets listed
60
most active by 24h volume
24h volume
$633K
across listed markets
Most active business markets right now
| Market | Favorite | Price | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Largest Company end of December 2026? Economy · Business · closes January 1, 2027 | Apple | 69.1% | +9.8 |
| How many Fed rate cuts in 2026? Rewards 200, 4.5, 50 Deprec · Fed Rates · closes January 1, 2027 | 0 (0 bps) | 97.2% | -0.6 |
| AI bubble burst by...? Business · Tech · closes July 1, 2027 | June 30, 2027 | 24.0% | +1.5 |
| Largest IPO by market cap in 2026? Climate & Science · IPO · closes January 2, 2027 | SpaceX | 81.5% | +10.0 |
| Largest Company end of November 2026? Tech · Economy · closes December 1, 2026 | Apple | 77.0% | +22.0 |
| IPOs before 2027? Business · Big Tech · closes January 1, 2027 | Anthropic | 71.0% | -19.5 |
| 3rd Largest Company end of December 2026? Tech · Economy · closes January 1, 2027 | Microsoft | 63.5% | -7.5 |
| 3rd Largest Company end of November 2026? Tech · Economy · closes December 1, 2026 | Microsoft | 66.0% | -25.5 |
| Anthropic announces bankruptcy by...? Tech · Finance · closes January 1, 2030 | December 31, 2029 | 20.5% | -1.0 |
| 2nd Largest Company end of December 2026? Tech · Economy · closes January 1, 2027 | NVIDIA | 54.0% | 0.0 |
| US recession by end of 2026? Business · Economy · closes December 31, 2026 | Yes | 4.5% | 0.0 |
| GPU rental prices (RTX 6000) end of November 2026? AI · Ornn · closes December 1, 2026 | $1.50-$1.75 | 49.0% | +42.0 |
| GPU rental prices (H100) end of December 2026? AI · H100 · closes January 1, 2027 | $3.25+ | 50.0% | +14.0 |
| OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap IPO · Business · closes January 1, 2028 | 1.5T+ | 35.8% | -1.1 |
| Nvidia’s Market Cap end of 2026? NVDA · NVIDIA · closes December 31, 2026 | $4.00-$4.50T | 25.1% | +17.1 |
| 2nd Largest Company end of November 2026? Tech · Economy · closes December 1, 2026 | NVIDIA | 64.5% | +7.0 |
| NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027? Finance · Business · closes January 1, 2027 | Yes | 7.1% | +2.9 |
| Amazon’s Market Cap end of 2026? AMZN · Stocks · closes December 31, 2026 | $2.50-$3.00T | 49.5% | -7.5 |
| OpenAI announces bankruptcy by...? Tech · OpenAI · closes January 1, 2030 | December 31, 2029 | 22.0% | -0.5 |
| Lead Bank in Anthropic's IPO? Finance · IPO · closes January 1, 2028 | Goldman Sachs | 90.5% | -3.1 |
| Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? Apple Event · Tech · closes January 1, 2027 | Yes | 97.4% | -0.4 |
| 1 million American kids get SpaceX shares by December 31, 2027? SpaceX · Stocks · closes January 1, 2028 | Yes | 74.5% | +35.0 |
| How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027? Economy · Business · closes January 1, 2027 | Below 4.8% | 69.0% | +5.5 |
| OpenAI IPO closing market cap above ___ ? Finance · IPOs · closes January 1, 2028 | $800B | 68.7% | -4.3 |
| GPU rental prices (H100) end of November? AI · H100 · closes December 1, 2026 | $3.25+ | 50.0% | -10.0 |
| GPU rental prices (H200) end of December 2026? AI · H200 · closes January 1, 2027 | $6.50+ | 54.5% | -10.5 |
| CoreWeave announces bankruptcy by...? Tech · Finance · closes January 1, 2030 | December 31, 2029 | 29.5% | 0.0 |
| Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by December 31? AI · Tech · closes January 1, 2027 | Yes | 4.0% | -7.0 |
| Deepseek IPO by...? AI · IPO · closes January 1, 2028 | December 31, 2027 | 67.3% | +1.4 |
| GPU rental prices (A100) end of December 2026? AI · A100 · closes January 1, 2027 | <$0.50 | 40.7% | +7.1 |
| Alphabet’s Market Cap end of 2026? GOOGL · Stocks · closes December 31, 2026 | <$3.50T | 45.4% | +12.6 |
| Musk out as Tesla CEO before 2027? Tesla · Business · closes January 1, 2027 | Yes | 2.3% | +0.6 |
| GPU rental prices (B200) hit___ in 2026? AI · B200 · closes January 1, 2027 | ↓ $5.50 | 24.8% | +4.3 |
| Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31? AI · Business · closes January 1, 2027 | Anthropic | 50.0% | +4.5 |
| GPU rental prices (B200) end of November? AI · B200 · closes December 1, 2026 | $9.00+ | 71.0% | 0.0 |
| Apple’s Market Cap end of 2026? AAPL · Apple · closes December 31, 2026 | $5.00-$5.50T | 37.0% | +3.5 |
| OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027? Big Tech · OpenAI · closes January 1, 2027 | Yes | 3.1% | -0.1 |
| Discord IPO Closing Market Cap IPO · IPOs · closes January 1, 2028 | No IPO by December 31, 2027 | 68.0% | -2.4 |
| OpenAI IPO by...? OpenAI IPO · IPOs · closes July 1, 2027 | June 30, 2027 | 45.5% | -0.5 |
| Which companies announce bankruptcy before 2027? Corporate Financials · Business · closes January 1, 2027 | Xerox | 9.5% | +3.5 |
| Which companies will be acquired before 2027? Business · Big Tech · closes January 1, 2027 | PayPal | 12.0% | +1.5 |
| What kind of product will OpenAI announce in 2026? Tech · sam altman · closes January 1, 2027 | Earbuds/Headphones | 12.0% | -0.5 |
| GPU rental prices (H200) end of November? AI · H200 · closes December 1, 2026 | $6.50+ | 35.5% | -13.0 |
| GPU rental prices (H100) end of 2026? AI · H100 · closes January 1, 2027 | $3.00-$3.50 | 34.2% | +8.0 |
| How many Tesla deliveries in Q4 2026? KPIs · Tech · closes March 1, 2027 | 400k to 425k | 21.6% | -3.0 |
| GPU rental prices (RTX 6000) end of December 2026? AI · Ornn · closes January 1, 2027 | $1.50-$1.75 | 41.5% | -11.0 |
| US recession by end of 2027? Economy · Business · closes December 31, 2027 | Yes | 30.0% | +0.5 |
| Which DCMs self-certify sports event contracts by December 31? CFTC · Tech · closes January 1, 2027 | ForecastEx | 20.5% | 0.0 |
| Fed emergency rate cut before 2027? Business · Finance · closes January 1, 2027 | Yes | 2.2% | +0.4 |
| Perplexity IPO Closing Market Cap IPOs · AI · closes January 1, 2028 | No IPO before 2028 | 45.5% | 0.0 |
| Which airlines will announce bankruptcy by December 31? Finance · Business · closes January 1, 2027 | Frontier Airlines | 8.5% | +0.5 |
| Largest Indian Company at end of 2026? Tech · India · closes January 1, 2027 | Reliance Industries Ltd | 87.5% | 0.0 |
| GPU rental prices (H100) hit___ in 2026? AI · H100 · closes January 1, 2027 | ↓ $2.00 | 30.0% | -3.4 |
| GPU rental prices (RTX 5090) end of November? AI · Ornn · closes December 1, 2026 | $0.65-$0.70 | 33.5% | +0.5 |
| Kimi (Moonshot AI) IPO by...? AI · IPO · closes July 1, 2027 | June 30, 2027 | 36.5% | +4.5 |
| GPU rental prices (H200) hit___ in 2026? AI · H200 · closes January 1, 2027 | ↑ $7.50 | 52.0% | -0.5 |
| Anthropic commits shares to Trump Accounts by November 30? AI · Tech · closes December 1, 2026 | Yes | 2.5% | -1.0 |
| Which CEOs will be out before 2027? Business · AI · closes January 1, 2027 | Brian Armstrong - Coinbase | 4.9% | 0.0 |
| Will Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026? Economy · Business · closes January 1, 2027 | Yes | 2.7% | 0.0 |
| SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027? Elon Musk · Tech · closes January 1, 2027 | Yes | 33.5% | +4.0 |
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the most traded business prediction markets today?
- As of November 6, 2026 the most active is "Largest Company end of December 2026?" with $226K traded in 24 hours, followed by "How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?".
- How often is this list updated?
- Prices and volumes are refreshed every few minutes from the Polymarket API. Each market has its own page with full price history and rules.
- Are these odds or probabilities?
- Prediction market prices read directly as probabilities: a Yes share at 30¢ implies roughly a 30% chance. Unlike sportsbook odds there is no built-in vig, but spreads and fees still apply.