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Netanyahu out by...?: live odds and probabilities

The market favorite is June 30, 2027 at 65.5%, ahead of March 31, 2027 at 55.0%. $125.2M traded across 3 outcomes.

Updated 2026-11-06 01:43 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Favorite

65.5%
June 30, 2027 · Trade →

24h move

+27.0
pts · 7d +23.0

Volume

$125.2M
24h $151K · liquidity $176K

Closes

January 1, 2027
56 days left

GeopoliticsWorldMiddle EastIsraelPolitics

All outcomes

OutcomeProbability24h7dVolumeSpread
June 30, 202765.5% +27.0+23.0$172K9.0¢
March 31, 202755.0% +21.5+29.0$19K6.0¢
December 3137.5% +16.5+16.5$3.2M1.0¢

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 01:43 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Price history

0%25%50%75%100%07-2503-1611-06
June 30, 2027March 31, 2027December 31

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Benjamin Netanyahu announces that he will resign as Prime Minister of Israel, or otherwise steps down from/is removed from this position by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note that an announcement of Benjamin Netanyahu's resignation or removal before the resolution date will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of if/when he actually steps down. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the State of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Benjamin Netanyahu ceases to be Prime Minister of Israel for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Benjamin Netanyahu's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Benjamin Netanyahu and the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying June 30, 2027 at 66% risks 66¢ to win 35¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

Who is favored in "Netanyahu out by...?"?
As of November 6, 2026, June 30, 2027 is the favorite at 65.5%, followed by March 31, 2027 at 55.0%.
When does this market resolve?
The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?
$125.2M in total and $151K in the last 24 hours, with about $176K of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?
Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.