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Next Prime Minister of New Zealand?: live odds and probabilities

The market favorite is Christopher Luxon at 56.5%, ahead of Chris Hipkins at 42.5%. $223K traded across 7 outcomes.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:04 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Favorite

56.5%
Christopher Luxon · Trade →

24h move

+4.0
pts · 7d -1.0

Volume

$223K
24h $20K · liquidity $381K

Closes

November 8, 2026
2 days left

PoliticsElectionsGlobal ElectionsNZMain Election

All outcomes

OutcomeProbability24h7dVolumeSpread
Christopher Luxon56.5% +4.0-1.0$65K1.0¢
Chris Hipkins42.5% -2.50.0$75K1.0¢
Nicola Willis0.5% +0.1+0.4$31K1.1¢
Winston Peters0.1% 0.0-0.1$10K0.1¢
Chlöe Swarbrick0.1% 0.0-0.1$8K0.1¢
David Seymour0.1% 0.0-0.2$16K0.1¢
Carmel Sepuloni0.1% 0.0-0.1$17K0.1¢

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:04 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Price history

0%25%50%75%100%10-0610-2111-06
Christopher LuxonChris HipkinsNicola WillisWinston Peters

Market rules and resolution

A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 General elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the Governor-General as Prime Minister of New Zealand. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of New Zealand; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying Christopher Luxon at 56% risks 56¢ to win 44¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

Who is favored in "Next Prime Minister of New Zealand?"?
As of November 6, 2026, Christopher Luxon is the favorite at 56.5%, followed by Chris Hipkins at 42.5%.
When does this market resolve?
The market is scheduled to close on November 8, 2026. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?
$223K in total and $20K in the last 24 hours, with about $381K of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?
Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.