Live market data
Elections prediction markets: live odds, ranked by volume
Every market below links to its own page with all outcomes, a price chart and resolution rules. Prices are probabilities: 30¢ means about a 30% chance.
Markets listed
58
most active by 24h volume
24h volume
$4.6M
across listed markets
Most active elections markets right now
| Market | Favorite | Price | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Prime Minister of Israel after the next election? Main Election · Israel Election · closes October 28, 2026 | Gadi Eizenkot | 63.8% | +7.2 |
| Alaska Senate Election Winner Alaska Midterm · Senate Elections · closes November 4, 2026 | Mary Peltola (D) | 97.4% | +3.5 |
| Mississippi Senate Election Winner Mississippi Midterm · Senate Elections · closes November 4, 2026 | Scott Colom (D) | 97.9% | -0.1 |
| Taipei Mayor Election Winner Taiwan · Politics · closes November 29, 2026 | Chiang Wan-an | 66.5% | 0.0 |
| Trump out as President before 2027? Politics · Trump · closes January 1, 2027 | Yes | 3.5% | -0.4 |
| NC-03 House Election Winner Politics · Elections · closes November 4, 2026 | Raymond Smith Jr. (D) | 76.0% | +1.7 |
| Republican Senate seats after the midterms (Lower Brackets) Trump · Congress · closes November 3, 2026 | 44 | 95.8% | +2.0 |
| CA-23 House Election Winner Politics · Elections · closes November 4, 2026 | Jay Obernolte (R) | 79.8% | +2.5 |
| AZ-02 House Election Winner Midterms · House Elections · closes November 4, 2026 | Eli Crane (R) | 97.2% | +25.7 |
| Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election? US Election · Elections · closes November 8, 2028 | Democratic | 67.5% | +0.5 |
| Next Prime Minister of Spain? Spain · Politics · closes November 30, 2026 | Alberto Núñez Feijóo | 90.5% | +3.0 |
| Next Prime Minister of Sweden Elections · World · closes July 1, 2027 | Magdalena Andersson | 71.5% | +3.0 |
| 2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory democrats · Midterms · closes November 4, 2026 | Democrats 14-16% | 51.9% | +30.2 |
| Texas Senate Election Margin of Victory Midterms · Politics · closes November 4, 2026 | Talarico 12%+ | 97.1% | +1.8 |
| Next Senate Majority Leader? Senate · Elections · closes November 4, 2026 | Chuck Schumer | 89.0% | +4.0 |
| New Zealand legislative election winner? Politics · Global Elections · closes November 8, 2026 | National Party | 67.0% | -1.0 |
| AK-AL House Election Winner Politics · Elections · closes November 4, 2026 | Republican Party | 94.3% | +8.8 |
| Who will announce Presidential run before 2027? Politics · Celebrities · closes January 1, 2027 | Pete Buttigieg | 39.6% | +27.9 |
| Next Prime Minister of New Zealand? Politics · Elections · closes November 8, 2026 | Christopher Luxon | 56.5% | 0.0 |
| Next Venezuelan Presidential Election Winner Politics · Elections · closes January 1, 2030 | María Corina Machado | 67.5% | +14.0 |
| Which coalition will form the next New Zealand government? Politics · Elections · closes November 8, 2026 | National + ACT + NZF | 50.0% | +6.5 |
| New Taipei Mayor Election Winner Taiwan · Politics · closes November 29, 2026 | Su Chiao-hui | 57.0% | +2.5 |
| Democratic VP Nominee 2028 Politics · President · closes November 8, 2028 | Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 28.5% | +16.5 |
| NC-05 House Election Winner Politics · Elections · closes November 4, 2026 | Chuck Hubbard (D) | 96.2% | +4.0 |
| Next Serbia Presidential Election Winner Serbia · Politics · closes May 2, 2027 | Radomir Saičić | 79.5% | +9.0 |
| Democratic nomination odds leader on November 30? Politics · Elections · closes November 30, 2026 | Jon Ossoff | 87.5% | +12.5 |
| Argentina Presidential Election Winner Politics · Elections · closes October 25, 2027 | Javier Milei | 44.5% | -1.0 |
| Who will announce Presidential run before 2028? Politics · Elections · closes January 1, 2028 | Andy Beshear | 90.8% | +1.0 |
| 2028 presidential odds leader on November 30? Politics · Elections · closes November 30, 2026 | Other | 53.0% | +1.5 |
| Which parties will be in the next Israeli government? World · Israel · closes June 30, 2027 | Together | 71.5% | +2.5 |
| Next Israeli government formed by...? World · Israel · closes July 1, 2027 | June 30, 2027 | 75.5% | 0.0 |
| New Zealand Election: 2nd Place Politics · Elections · closes November 8, 2026 | Labour Party | 70.0% | +1.0 |
| How many Israeli elections before government formed? Israel · Politics · closes October 27, 2026 | 1 | 62.0% | +5.5 |
| Next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs? World · Israel · closes March 1, 2027 | Person I | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Hsinchu County Magistrate Election Winner Taiwan · Politics · closes November 29, 2026 | Cheng Chao-fang | 72.5% | +14.0 |
| Israeli Knesset election annulled? World · Israel · closes January 1, 2027 | Yes | 3.1% | -0.1 |
| Taichung Mayor Election Winner Taiwan · Politics · closes November 29, 2026 | Johnny Chiang | 77.5% | +1.5 |
| Which coalition will form the next Israeli government? World · Israel · closes January 1, 2028 | No government formed | 31.5% | -19.5 |
| Israeli election results in a hung parliament? Politics · Global Elections · closes October 27, 2026 | Yes | 38.0% | -4.5 |
| Which parties will be in next Swedish Government? Sweden · Politics · closes September 14, 2026 | Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) | 73.5% | -0.4 |
| Hsinchu City Mayor Election Winner Taiwan · Politics · closes November 29, 2026 | Ann Kao | 87.0% | 0.0 |
| Kaohsiung Mayor Election Winner Taiwan · Politics · closes November 29, 2026 | Lai Jui-lung | 84.0% | +3.0 |
| Which coalition will form the next Swedish government? Sweden · Politics · closes August 1, 2027 | S + MP + C + V | 24.0% | +4.5 |
| New Zealand Election: Turnout Politics · New Zealand · closes November 8, 2026 | 80-82% | 48.9% | +33.3 |
| Tamaulipas Congress Election Winner Mexico · Politics · closes June 7, 2027 | Morena | 59.0% | +9.0 |
| Nigerian Presidential Election Winner africa · Nigeria · closes January 17, 2027 | Bola Tinubu | 67.5% | -0.5 |
| Spain General Election Winner Spain · World · closes November 30, 2026 | PP | 89.0% | +1.5 |
| Marco Rubio announces a presidential run by...? Trump · Politics · closes July 1, 2027 | June 30, 2027 | 39.5% | +1.5 |
| Guerrero Congress Election Winner Mexico · Politics · closes June 7, 2027 | Morena | 93.5% | +8.0 |
| Vance's Republican nomination odds hit __ by December 31? Politics · Elections · closes January 1, 2027 | ↓ 25% | 42.0% | -13.0 |
| Ljubljana Mayoral Election Winner Politics · Slovenia · closes November 16, 2026 | Zoran Janković | 62.0% | -5.5 |
| AZ-05 House Election Winner Politics · Elections · closes November 4, 2026 | Mark Lamb (R) | 97.7% | +1.6 |
| TN-04 House Election Winner Politics · Elections · closes November 4, 2026 | Victoria Broderick (D) | 95.0% | +0.2 |
| Fall Elections Combo: Brazil, Israel, US Senate Brazil · Israel · closes November 4, 2026 | Lula, Eizenkot, Dems | 58.9% | +0.8 |
| Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round? Politics · Elections · closes April 19, 2027 | Marine Le Pen | 90.0% | +0.5 |
| New Zealand Election: 3rd Place Politics · Global Elections · closes November 8, 2026 | Green Party | 93.3% | -2.1 |
| FL-25 House Election Margin of Victory Midterms · Politics · closes November 3, 2026 | Democrat 3-6% | 51.5% | +5.0 |
| WA-05 House Election Winner Politics · Elections · closes November 4, 2026 | Michael Baumgartner (R) | 91.5% | +9.0 |
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the most traded elections prediction markets today?
- As of November 6, 2026 the most active is "Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?" with $1.2M traded in 24 hours, followed by "Alaska Senate Election Winner".
- How often is this list updated?
- Prices and volumes are refreshed every few minutes from the Polymarket API. Each market has its own page with full price history and rules.
- Are these odds or probabilities?
- Prediction market prices read directly as probabilities: a Yes share at 30¢ implies roughly a 30% chance. Unlike sportsbook odds there is no built-in vig, but spreads and fees still apply.