What are the odds that Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

As of November 6, 2026, Polymarket prices Yes at 12.5% and No at 87.5%, on $78.0M of total volume.

When does this market resolve?

The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.

How much has been traded?

$78.0M in total and $263K in the last 24 hours, with about $322K of resting liquidity.

Can I trade this market?

Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

Home / Markets / Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Live market data

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?: live odds and probabilities

Name: Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? prediction market prices
Creator: BetG8

Polymarket traders currently price Yes at 12.5% (+2.0 pts in 24h). $78.0M has traded on this market.

Updated 2026-11-06 01:43 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Yes probability

12.5%

No 87.5% · Trade →

24h move

+2.0

pts · 7d -5.0

Volume

$78.0M

24h $263K · liquidity $322K

Closes

January 1, 2027

56 days left

Military Strikes Politics Geopolitics World Middle East

All outcomes

Outcome	Probability	24h	7d	Volume	Spread
Yes	12.5%	+2.0	-5.0	$78.0M	1.0¢
No	87.5%	-2.0	+5.0	$78.0M	–

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 01:43 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

Price history

Yes

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying Yes at 13% risks 13¢ to win 88¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds that Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?: As of November 6, 2026, Polymarket prices Yes at 12.5% and No at 87.5%, on $78.0M of total volume.
When does this market resolve?: The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?: $78.0M in total and $263K in the last 24 hours, with about $322K of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?: Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.