Who is favored in "Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?"?

As of November 6, 2026, December 31 is the favorite at 2.3%.

When does this market resolve?

The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.

How much has been traded?

$77.7M in total and $61K in the last 24 hours, with about $1.7M of resting liquidity.

Can I trade this market?

Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

Home / Markets / Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

Live market data

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?: live odds and probabilities

Name: Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...? prediction market prices
Creator: BetG8

The market favorite is December 31 at 2.3%. $77.7M traded across 1 outcomes.

Updated 2026-11-06 02:18 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Favorite

2.3%

December 31 · Trade →

24h move

-0.1

pts · 7d -1.5

Volume

$77.7M

24h $61K · liquidity $1.7M

Closes

January 1, 2027

56 days left

Aliens Politics Culture Science

All outcomes

Outcome	Probability	24h	7d	Volume	Spread
December 31	2.3%	-0.1	-1.5	$45.1M	0.1¢

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 02:18 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

Price history

December 31

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying December 31 at 2% risks 2¢ to win 98¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

Who is favored in "Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?"?: As of November 6, 2026, December 31 is the favorite at 2.3%.
When does this market resolve?: The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?: $77.7M in total and $61K in the last 24 hours, with about $1.7M of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?: Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.