Next leader out of power before 2027?: live odds and probabilities
The market favorite is None before 2027 at 57.0%, ahead of Netanyahu - Israel PM at 23.5%. $2.4M traded across 22 outcomes.
Favorite
24h move
Volume
Closes
StarmerPoliticsGeopoliticsUK Labour Leadership
All outcomes
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| None before 2027 | 57.0% | +1.0 |
| Netanyahu - Israel PM | 23.5% | -1.0 |
| Sánchez - Spanish PM | 8.9% | +1.0 |
| Lecornu - France PM | 3.6% | -0.2 |
| Trump - USA President | 2.0% | -0.1 |
| Abbas - President of Palestine | 1.3% | +0.1 |
| Díaz-Canel - Cuba President | 1.0% | +0.1 |
| Merz - German Chancellor | 0.9% | +0.1 |
| Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea | 0.8% | +0.3 |
| Xi - General Secretary of the CCP | 0.8% | +0.1 |
| Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President | 0.5% | +0.1 |
| Erdoğan - Türkiye President | 0.4% | -0.3 |
| Putin - Russia President | 0.4% | -0.1 |
| Zelenskyy - Ukraine President | 0.4% | -0.1 |
| Newsom - California Governor | 0.3% | 0.0 |
| Lula da Silva - Brazil President | 0.3% | +0.1 |
| Macron - France President | 0.3% | 0.0 |
| Takaichi - Japan PM | 0.3% | 0.0 |
| al-Sharaa - Syria President | 0.3% | 0.0 |
| Albanese - Australia PM | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Milei - Argentina President | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Sheinbaum - Mexico President | 0.1% | 0.0 |
Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:05 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.
Price history
Market rules and resolution
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
How to read this market
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favored in "Next leader out of power before 2027?"?
- As of November 6, 2026, None before 2027 is the favorite at 57.0%, followed by Netanyahu - Israel PM at 23.5%.
- When does this market resolve?
- The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
- How much has been traded?
- $2.4M in total and $30K in the last 24 hours, with about $660K of resting liquidity.
- Can I trade this market?
- Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.
Related on BetG8
Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.