Which parties will be in next Swedish Government?: live odds and probabilities
The market favorite is Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) at 73.5%, ahead of Green Party (MP) at 69.5%. $319K traded across 9 outcomes.
Favorite
24h move
Volume
Closes
SwedenPoliticsElectionsWorld ElectionsGlobal Elections
All outcomes
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) | 73.5% | -0.4 |
| Green Party (MP) | 69.5% | +9.5 |
| Centre Party (C) | 50.5% | +1.0 |
| Left Party (V) | 48.0% | +24.5 |
| Moderate Party (M) | 23.5% | -1.0 |
| Christian Democrats (KD) | 23.5% | 0.0 |
| Liberals (L) | 22.0% | -2.5 |
| Sweden Democrats (SD) | 12.2% | +0.5 |
| Citizens' Coalition (MED) | 1.6% | +0.3 |
Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:03 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.
Price history
Market rules and resolution
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Swedish government formed after the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve once the composition of the first Swedish government following the 2026 parliamentary elections is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office. A party will only be considered part of the coalition if it provides at least one cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a cabinet post will not qualify. If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of Sweden and the Riksdag.
How to read this market
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favored in "Which parties will be in next Swedish Government?"?
- As of November 6, 2026, Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) is the favorite at 73.5%, followed by Green Party (MP) at 69.5%.
- When does this market resolve?
- The market is scheduled to close on September 14, 2026. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
- How much has been traded?
- $319K in total and $9K in the last 24 hours, with about $100K of resting liquidity.
- Can I trade this market?
- Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.
Related on BetG8
Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.