New Taipei Mayor Election Winner: live odds and probabilities
The market favorite is Su Chiao-hui at 58.0%, ahead of Candidate A at 50.0%. $258K traded across 30 outcomes.
Favorite
24h move
Volume
Closes
TaiwanPoliticsElectionsMain ElectionGlobal Elections
All outcomes
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Su Chiao-hui | 58.0% | +4.5 |
| Candidate A | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Candidate B | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Candidate C | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Candidate D | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Candidate E | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Candidate F | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Candidate G | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Candidate H | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Candidate I | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Candidate J | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Candidate K | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Candidate L | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Candidate M | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Candidate N | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Candidate O | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Candidate P | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Candidate Q | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Candidate R | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Candidate S | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Candidate T | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Candidate U | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Candidate V | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Candidate W | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Candidate X | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Candidate Y | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Candidate Z | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Other | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Lee Shu-chuan | 40.5% | -6.0 |
| Huang Kuo-chang | 0.1% | 0.0 |
Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:01 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.
Price history
Market rules and resolution
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of New Taipei as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
How to read this market
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favored in "New Taipei Mayor Election Winner"?
- As of November 6, 2026, Su Chiao-hui is the favorite at 58.0%, followed by Candidate A at 50.0%.
- When does this market resolve?
- The market is scheduled to close on November 29, 2026. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
- How much has been traded?
- $258K in total and $23K in the last 24 hours, with about $251K of resting liquidity.
- Can I trade this market?
- Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.
Related on BetG8
Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.