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How many Israeli elections before government formed?: live odds and probabilities

The market favorite is 1 at 63.0%, ahead of 2 at 25.5%. $267K traded across 5 outcomes.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:04 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Favorite

63.0%
1 · Trade →

24h move

+6.5
pts · 7d +11.0

Volume

$267K
24h $12K · liquidity $108K

Closes

October 27, 2026
0 days left

IsraelPoliticsElectionsInternational Election PropsGlobal Elections

All outcomes

OutcomeProbability24h7dVolumeSpread
163.0% +6.5+11.0$130K2.0¢
225.5% -7.5-10.5$84K1.0¢
37.0% -1.9-0.1$28K1.8¢
40.4% -0.1-0.7$15K0.5¢
5+0.1% 0.0-4.7$6K0.1¢

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:04 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Price history

0%25%50%75%100%10-0610-2111-06
1234

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve according to the number of Israeli legislative elections that occur between market creation and the formation of a government in the Knesset or December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes earlier. This market will resolve solely based on the number of elections that occur, where occurrence is defined as nationwide election-day voting open to eligible voters across Israel. Publication of an election’s results will have no bearing on this market. Early or special voting mechanisms that occur before election day (e.g., voting by soldiers or citizens abroad) will not affect resolution. Only the dates of general election-day voting will count. A government will be considered formed if it passes a vote of confidence in the Knesset. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying 1 at 63% risks 63¢ to win 37¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

Who is favored in "How many Israeli elections before government formed?"?
As of November 6, 2026, 1 is the favorite at 63.0%, followed by 2 at 25.5%.
When does this market resolve?
The market is scheduled to close on October 27, 2026. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?
$267K in total and $12K in the last 24 hours, with about $108K of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?
Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.