Which coalition will form the next Israeli government?: live odds and probabilities
The market favorite is Other at 32.0%, ahead of No government formed at 31.5%. $41K traded across 22 outcomes.
Favorite
24h move
Volume
Closes
WorldIsraelPoliticsElectionsGeopolitics
All outcomes
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Other | 32.0% | +9.5 |
| No government formed | 31.5% | -19.5 |
| L + Y + T | 8.0% | -2.0 |
| Y + T + B + D + R | 7.5% | +1.1 |
| L + Y + T + B | 4.4% | -0.1 |
| Y + T + B + D | 3.9% | +0.1 |
| L + Y + S + U + Z | 3.1% | 0.0 |
| Y + T + B + D + S + U | 3.0% | -1.0 |
| Y + T + B + D + R + J | 2.0% | -1.0 |
| L + S + U + O + Z | 0.9% | 0.0 |
| Y + T + D + S + U | 0.6% | 0.0 |
| Y + T + B + D + S | 0.6% | 0.0 |
| L + S + U + O + Z + B | 0.5% | 0.0 |
| L + S + U + O + Z + T | 0.5% | 0.0 |
| L + Y | 0.5% | 0.0 |
| L + Y + T + S + U | 0.5% | 0.0 |
| L + S + U + O + Z + Y | 0.5% | 0.0 |
| Y + T + D + S + U + R | 0.5% | 0.0 |
| L + Y + T + B + S + U | 0.5% | 0.0 |
| Y + T | 0.5% | -0.1 |
| L + S + U | 0.4% | 0.0 |
| L + Y + S + U | 0.4% | 0.0 |
Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:03 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.
Price history
Market rules and resolution
This market will resolve to the first ruling coalition of parties that forms after the 2026 Knesset election. The government is considered formed at the moment the newly elected Knesset approves the government in a vote of confidence. A party will only be considered part of the ruling coalition if it provides at least one Minister, including the Prime Minister. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, abstentions, or similar) without holding a Minister post will not qualify. A coalition does not need to hold a majority of seats in the Knesset; a government approved in a vote of confidence will qualify regardless of the number of seats held by its parties. Parties will be identified by the electoral lists on which they contested the 2026 Knesset election; any subsequent split, merger, or renaming of a list will be disregarded. In the listed options, “L” refers to Likud, “Y” to Yashar, “T” to Together, “S” to Shas, “U” to United Torah Judaism (UTJ), “O” to Otzma Yehudit (Otzma), “Z” to RZP-Zehut (RZP), “B” to Yisrael Beiteinu (YB), “D” to The Democrats (Democrats), “R” to Ra'am, and “J” to Joint List. This market will resolve to the listed option whose parties exactly match the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition includes any party not listed in an option, or does not include every party listed in an option, that option will resolve to “No”. If no listed option exactly matches the parties included in the coalition, this market will resolve to “Other”. Only a government formed by the 26th Knesset, elected on October 27, 2026, will be considered. If the 26th Knesset does not approve a government in a vote of confidence, including if it is dissolved and a new election is called before a government is formed, or if no such government is formed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No government formed”. Governments formed after any subsequent Knesset election will not be considered. This market may resolve once the 26th Knesset has approved the government in a vote of confidence and the composition of that government has been officially confirmed. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of Israel and the Knesset.
How to read this market
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favored in "Which coalition will form the next Israeli government?"?
- As of November 6, 2026, Other is the favorite at 32.0%, followed by No government formed at 31.5%.
- When does this market resolve?
- The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2028. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
- How much has been traded?
- $41K in total and $8K in the last 24 hours, with about $106K of resting liquidity.
- Can I trade this market?
- Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.
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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.