New Zealand Election: Turnout: live odds and probabilities
The market favorite is 80-82% at 49.9%, ahead of 78-80% at 38.0%. $30K traded across 6 outcomes.
Favorite
24h move
Volume
Closes
PoliticsNew ZealandNew Zealand ElectionNZElections
All outcomes
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| 80-82% | 49.9% | +30.8 |
| 78-80% | 38.0% | +3.0 |
| 76-78% | 11.5% | -20.5 |
| 82-84% | 4.0% | -4.0 |
| 84%+ | 0.3% | -6.2 |
| <76% | 0.1% | -5.2 |
Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:02 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.
Price history
Market rules and resolution
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the 2026 New Zealand general election, defined as the total number of votes cast divided by the total number of enrolled voters (votes cast to electors on master roll, combined total of General and Māori electorate). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results reported by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used if official results are not available.
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the 2026 New Zealand general election, defined as the total number of votes cast divided by the total number of enrolled voters (votes cast to electors on master roll, combined total of General and Māori electorate). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results reported by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used if official results are not available.
How to read this market
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favored in "New Zealand Election: Turnout"?
- As of November 6, 2026, 80-82% is the favorite at 49.9%, followed by 78-80% at 38.0%.
- When does this market resolve?
- The market is scheduled to close on November 8, 2026. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
- How much has been traded?
- $30K in total and $8K in the last 24 hours, with about $111K of resting liquidity.
- Can I trade this market?
- Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.
Related on BetG8
Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.