Argentina Presidential Election Winner: live odds and probabilities
The market favorite is Javier Milei at 44.5%, ahead of Axel Kicillof at 31.5%. $1.3M traded across 21 outcomes.
Favorite
24h move
Volume
Closes
PoliticsElectionsArgentinaArgentina Electionmilei
All outcomes
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Javier Milei | 44.5% | -1.0 |
| Axel Kicillof | 31.5% | +1.0 |
| Sergio Massa | 16.0% | +1.3 |
| Patricia Bullrich | 2.3% | -0.5 |
| Myriam Bregman | 1.7% | -0.1 |
| Cristina Fernández de Kirchner | 1.6% | -0.3 |
| Dante Gebel | 0.7% | 0.0 |
| Daniel Hadad | 0.7% | 0.0 |
| Lionel Messi | 0.4% | 0.0 |
| Máximo Kirchner | 0.3% | 0.0 |
| Facundo Manes | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Victoria Villarruel | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Juan Grabois | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Mauricio Macri | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Karina Milei | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Guillermo Moreno | 0.1% | -0.1 |
| Eduardo Enrique "Wado" de Pedro | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Esteban Bullrich | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Juan Schiaretti | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Nicolás del Caño | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Alberto Fernández | 0.1% | 0.0 |
Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:03 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.
Price history
Market rules and resolution
A presidential election scheduled to be held in Argentina on October 24, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Argentinian Presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Argentina government sources, including the Cámara Nacional Electoral (https://www.electoral.gob.ar/nuevo/index.php) and the Dirección Nacional Electoral (https://www.argentina.gob.ar/dine).
How to read this market
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favored in "Argentina Presidential Election Winner"?
- As of November 6, 2026, Javier Milei is the favorite at 44.5%, followed by Axel Kicillof at 31.5%.
- When does this market resolve?
- The market is scheduled to close on October 25, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
- How much has been traded?
- $1.3M in total and $16K in the last 24 hours, with about $1.2M of resting liquidity.
- Can I trade this market?
- Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.
Related on BetG8
Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.