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Next Israeli government formed by...?: live odds and probabilities

The market favorite is June 30, 2027 at 75.5%, ahead of February 28, 2027 at 66.0%. $164K traded across 4 outcomes.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:03 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Favorite

75.5%
June 30, 2027 · Trade →

24h move

0.0
pts · 7d +8.0

Volume

$164K
24h $13K · liquidity $125K

Closes

July 1, 2027
237 days left

WorldIsraelPoliticsElectionsMain Election

All outcomes

OutcomeProbability24h7dVolumeSpread
June 30, 202775.5% 0.0+8.0$35K1.0¢
February 28, 202766.0% +12.5+23.0$34K12.0¢
December 31, 202629.5% +2.0+3.0$44K1.0¢
November 30, 20268.8% -0.1-1.7$51K1.2¢

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:03 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Price history

0%25%50%75%100%10-2811-0111-06
June 30, 2027February 28, 2027December 31, 2026November 30, 2026

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a new Government of Israel is officially sworn in by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” To qualify, a newly formed government, headed by a Prime Minister and composed of appointed ministers must be sworn in before the Knesset within this market's timeframe. Only a government formed as a result of the 2026 Knesset election or any subsequent election will qualify. Caretaker or transitional governments, including the outgoing government continuing to serve in a caretaker capacity, will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel or the Knesset; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying June 30, 2027 at 76% risks 76¢ to win 25¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

Who is favored in "Next Israeli government formed by...?"?
As of November 6, 2026, June 30, 2027 is the favorite at 75.5%, followed by February 28, 2027 at 66.0%.
When does this market resolve?
The market is scheduled to close on July 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?
$164K in total and $13K in the last 24 hours, with about $125K of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?
Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.