Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?: live odds and probabilities
The market favorite is Marine Le Pen at 90.0%, ahead of Jean-Luc Mélenchon at 50.5%. $533K traded across 37 outcomes.
Favorite
24h move
Volume
Closes
PoliticsElectionsFranceMacronGlobal Elections
All outcomes
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Marine Le Pen | 90.0% | 0.0 |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 50.5% | +2.0 |
| Other | 32.5% | +0.5 |
| Édouard Philippe | 21.0% | -1.0 |
| David Lisnard | 17.8% | +0.1 |
| Jordan Bardella | 7.5% | +0.5 |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 6.4% | +0.4 |
| Laurent Wauquiez | 5.9% | +0.8 |
| Gabriel Attal | 5.5% | -0.1 |
| Xavier Bertrand | 5.5% | -0.2 |
| Dominique de Villepin | 5.5% | -0.5 |
| Sébastien Lecornu | 5.4% | 0.0 |
| Sarah Knafo | 5.3% | -0.8 |
| Bruno Retailleau | 5.1% | 0.0 |
| Clémence Guetté | 4.3% | +0.1 |
| François Hollande | 4.1% | -2.3 |
| Manuel Bompard | 4.1% | 0.0 |
| Éric Zemmour | 3.9% | 0.0 |
| Juan Branco | 3.8% | -0.1 |
| Fabien Roussel | 3.5% | +0.2 |
| Bernard Cazeneuve | 3.5% | -0.1 |
| Marine Tondelier | 3.5% | +1.0 |
| François Ruffin | 3.4% | -0.4 |
| Gérald Darmanin | 3.2% | +0.6 |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 3.1% | 0.0 |
| Olivier Faure | 2.9% | +0.5 |
| Élisabeth Borne | 2.9% | -0.1 |
| Ségolène Royal | 2.9% | 0.0 |
| François Bayrou | 2.9% | 0.0 |
| Clémentine Autain | 2.8% | +0.4 |
| Yaël Braun-Pivet | 2.5% | +0.1 |
| François Asselineau | 2.5% | +0.2 |
| Michel Barnier | 2.4% | +0.1 |
| Jean Castex | 2.1% | -0.1 |
| Mathilde Panot | 1.8% | +0.5 |
| Valérie Pécresse | 1.7% | +0.3 |
| Carole Delga | 1.6% | 0.0 |
Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:05 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.
Price history
Market rules and resolution
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff second round. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to the second round of the next French presidential election or wins the election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no such election occurs or the results of the first round of this election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
How to read this market
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favored in "Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?"?
- As of November 6, 2026, Marine Le Pen is the favorite at 90.0%, followed by Jean-Luc Mélenchon at 50.5%.
- When does this market resolve?
- The market is scheduled to close on April 19, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
- How much has been traded?
- $533K in total and $5K in the last 24 hours, with about $430K of resting liquidity.
- Can I trade this market?
- Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.
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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.