Who is favored in "Fed rate cut by...?"?

As of November 6, 2026, July 2027 Meeting is the favorite at 51.0%, followed by April 2027 Meeting at 49.5%.

When does this market resolve?

The market is scheduled to close on January 29, 2028. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.

How much has been traded?

$3.9M in total and $6K in the last 24 hours, with about $84K of resting liquidity.

Can I trade this market?

Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

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Live market data

Fed rate cut by...?: live odds and probabilities

Name: Fed rate cut by...? prediction market prices
Creator: BetG8

The market favorite is July 2027 Meeting at 51.0%, ahead of April 2027 Meeting at 49.5%. $3.9M traded across 6 outcomes.

Updated 2026-11-06 02:17 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Favorite

51.0%

July 2027 Meeting · Trade →

24h move

0.0

pts · 7d -10.0

Volume

$3.9M

24h $6K · liquidity $84K

Closes

January 29, 2028

449 days left

Fed Fed Rates Finance Economy Economic Policy

All outcomes

Outcome	Probability	24h	7d	Volume	Spread
July 2027 Meeting	51.0%	0.0	-10.0	$162	78.0¢
April 2027 Meeting	49.5%	0.0	-10.0	$156	57.0¢
June 2027 Meeting	30.0%	0.0	-6.5	$27	38.0¢
March 2027 Meeting	12.0%	-0.5	-8.5	$6K	2.0¢
January 2027 Meeting	8.3%	-0.1	-1.8	$9K	8.1¢
December 2026 Meeting	1.6%	+0.3	-2.1	$457K	0.5¢

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 02:17 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

Price history

July 2027 MeetingApril 2027 MeetingJune 2027 MeetingMarch 2027 Meeting

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for January 2026, currently scheduled for January 27-28. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no January meeting takes place by February 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate cuts will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for July 2027, currently scheduled for July 27 to 28. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no July meeting takes place by August 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate cuts will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying July 2027 Meeting at 51% risks 51¢ to win 49¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

Who is favored in "Fed rate cut by...?"?: As of November 6, 2026, July 2027 Meeting is the favorite at 51.0%, followed by April 2027 Meeting at 49.5%.
When does this market resolve?: The market is scheduled to close on January 29, 2028. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?: $3.9M in total and $6K in the last 24 hours, with about $84K of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?: Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.