Brazil Annual Inflation 2026: live odds and probabilities
The market favorite is 5.00-5.49% at 37.1%, ahead of 5.50-5.99% at 36.0%. $207K traded across 10 outcomes.
Favorite
24h move
Volume
Closes
BrazilCPIInflationWorldEconomy
All outcomes
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| 5.00-5.49% | 37.1% | -2.1 |
| 5.50-5.99% | 36.0% | +13.4 |
| 4.50-4.99% | 6.7% | -5.0 |
| 6.00-6.49% | 2.5% | -3.8 |
| 7.00%+ | 1.1% | -5.3 |
| 4.00-4.49% | 0.9% | -0.3 |
| 6.50-6.99% | 0.4% | -1.5 |
| <3.00% | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| 3.50-3.99% | 0.1% | -0.1 |
| 3.00-3.49% | 0.1% | 0.0 |
Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 02:19 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.
Price history
Market rules and resolution
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report. The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
How to read this market
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favored in "Brazil Annual Inflation 2026"?
- As of November 6, 2026, 5.00-5.49% is the favorite at 37.1%, followed by 5.50-5.99% at 36.0%.
- When does this market resolve?
- The market is scheduled to close on January 13, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
- How much has been traded?
- $207K in total and $5K in the last 24 hours, with about $35K of resting liquidity.
- Can I trade this market?
- Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.
Related on BetG8
Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.