October Unemployment Rate: live odds and probabilities
The market favorite is 4.2% at 39.5%, ahead of 4.1% at 24.0%. $43K traded across 9 outcomes.
Favorite
24h move
Volume
Closes
jobsEconomyRecurringJobs Reportunemployment
All outcomes
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| 4.2% | 39.5% | -4.0 |
| 4.1% | 24.0% | -3.0 |
| 4.3% | 23.0% | +4.5 |
| 4.0% | 4.9% | +2.3 |
| 4.4% | 4.1% | +2.5 |
| 4.5% | 0.8% | +0.8 |
| ≥4.6% | 0.7% | +0.5 |
| ≤3.8% | 0.3% | +0.1 |
| 3.9% | 0.3% | +0.1 |
Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:01 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.
Price history
Market rules and resolution
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for October 2026. The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question. The relevant data release is scheduled for November 6, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
How to read this market
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favored in "October Unemployment Rate"?
- As of November 6, 2026, 4.2% is the favorite at 39.5%, followed by 4.1% at 24.0%.
- When does this market resolve?
- The market is scheduled to close on November 6, 2026. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
- How much has been traded?
- $43K in total and $5K in the last 24 hours, with about $26K of resting liquidity.
- Can I trade this market?
- Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.
Related on BetG8
Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.