Who is favored in "What will the median home value in the US be on December 31?"?

As of November 6, 2026, $403K - $407K is the favorite at 38.5%, followed by $407K - $411K at 37.0%.

When does this market resolve?

The market is scheduled to close on January 11, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.

How much has been traded?

$58K in total and $2K in the last 24 hours, with about $24K of resting liquidity.

Can I trade this market?

Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

Home / Markets / What will the median home value in the US be on December 31?

Live market data

What will the median home value in the US be on December 31?: live odds and probabilities

Name: What will the median home value in the US be on December 31? prediction market prices
Creator: BetG8

The market favorite is $403K - $407K at 38.5%, ahead of $407K - $411K at 37.0%. $58K traded across 7 outcomes.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:01 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Favorite

38.5%

$403K - $407K · Trade →

24h move

-5.0

pts · 7d +1.0

Volume

$58K

24h $2K · liquidity $24K

Closes

January 11, 2027

66 days left

Parcl Economy Housing Recurring real estate

All outcomes

Outcome	Probability	24h	7d	Volume	Spread
$403K - $407K	38.5%	-5.0	+1.0	$18K	1.0¢
$407K - $411K	37.0%	-1.0	-1.5	$17K	6.0¢
<$403K	21.6%	+4.7	+18.3	$6K	8.1¢
$411K - $415K	4.1%	-0.1	-6.6	$3K	6.0¢
$415K - $419K	1.9%	-2.5	-4.7	$6K	2.1¢
$419K - $423K	0.4%	0.0	-1.7	$6K	0.4¢
$423K+	0.1%	0.0	-8.8	$2K	0.1¢

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:01 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

Price history

$403K - $407K$407K - $411K<$403K$411K - $415K

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the United States on December 31, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the United States (Parcl_ID: 5826765). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2000, which is the median square footage for homes in the US. Parcl is set to publish this data on December 31, 2026. If no data for December 31 is released by January 10, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/57)

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying $403K - $407K at 39% risks 39¢ to win 62¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

Who is favored in "What will the median home value in the US be on December 31?"?: As of November 6, 2026, $403K - $407K is the favorite at 38.5%, followed by $407K - $411K at 37.0%.
When does this market resolve?: The market is scheduled to close on January 11, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?: $58K in total and $2K in the last 24 hours, with about $24K of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?: Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

Related on BetG8

Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.