1 million American kids get SpaceX shares by December 31, 2027?: live odds and probabilities

Market rules and resolution

On October 19, 2026, Elon Musk announced that next year he would give one of his SpaceX shares to every child in America. (see: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/19/elon-musk-spacex-shares-giveaway-kids.html) This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one million children in the United States have received at least one share of SpaceX stock from Elon Musk by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "child" is any individual who is under 18 years of age and resides in the United States on the date the share is received. A child who turns 18 after receiving a share will continue to count. A child will be considered to have "received" a share once at least one whole share has been transferred to and is held by or for the benefit of that child, including in a brokerage account, custodial account (such as a UTMA/UGMA account), or trust in the child's name or for the child's benefit. Announcements, pledges, registrations, sign-ups, or allocations of shares that have not yet been transferred will not qualify. Fractional shares, tokenized shares, or other synthetic exposure to SpaceX will not qualify. Shares will be considered to be "from Elon Musk" if they are distributed by Elon Musk personally or by any person or legal entity acting on his behalf or at his direction, or funded by him for this purpose, including a trust, foundation, SpaceX itself, or another company or third-party administrator implementing the distribution. Shares distributed under a program that was not initiated or funded by Elon Musk will not qualify. The equity must be in Space Exploration Technologies Corp (SpaceX). Any class or type of equity will qualify, including preferred or common stock. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.