How high will inflation get in 2026?: live odds and probabilities
The market favorite is Above 4.5% at 11.0%, ahead of Above 5% at 6.0%. $1.5M traded across 5 outcomes.
Favorite
24h move
Volume
Closes
InflationMacro IndicatorsEconomyPolitics
All outcomes
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Above 4.5% | 11.0% | -2.0 |
| Above 5% | 6.0% | -0.5 |
| Above 8% | 2.4% | -0.1 |
| Above 6% | 2.1% | -0.9 |
| Above 10% | 1.8% | +0.1 |
Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 02:14 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.
Price history
Market rules and resolution
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by greater than the listed percent over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. This market may not resolve to "No" until the December 2026 report is issued. Once the December 2026 report is issued, any revisions to previously released CPI figures will not be counted toward this market's resolution. If the CPI report for December 2026 is not issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on CPI figures which have already been made available by the BLS. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
How to read this market
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favored in "How high will inflation get in 2026?"?
- As of November 6, 2026, Above 4.5% is the favorite at 11.0%, followed by Above 5% at 6.0%.
- When does this market resolve?
- The market is scheduled to close on February 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
- How much has been traded?
- $1.5M in total and $7K in the last 24 hours, with about $153K of resting liquidity.
- Can I trade this market?
- Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.
Related on BetG8
Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.