Japan GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ Annualized)?: live odds and probabilities
The market favorite is 0.0%–0.8% at 32.3%, ahead of -0.8%–0.0% at 17.5%. $67K traded across 10 outcomes.
Favorite
24h move
Volume
Closes
All outcomes
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0%–0.8% | 32.3% | +7.0 |
| -0.8%–0.0% | 17.5% | +1.0 |
| 0.8%–1.6% | 17.3% | -3.6 |
| 1.6%–2.4% | 9.3% | -0.8 |
| -1.6%– -0.8% | 8.2% | -0.1 |
| -2.4%– -1.6% | 3.5% | +0.1 |
| 2.4%–3.2% | 3.4% | 0.0 |
| 4.0%+ | 2.9% | -8.6 |
| 3.2%–4.0% | 2.0% | 0.0 |
| <-2.4% | 1.5% | -5.5 |
Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:01 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.
Price history
Market rules and resolution
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on November 16, 2026. The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
How to read this market
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favored in "Japan GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ Annualized)?"?
- As of November 6, 2026, 0.0%–0.8% is the favorite at 32.3%, followed by -0.8%–0.0% at 17.5%.
- When does this market resolve?
- The market is scheduled to close on November 17, 2026. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
- How much has been traded?
- $67K in total and $2K in the last 24 hours, with about $29K of resting liquidity.
- Can I trade this market?
- Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.
Related on BetG8
Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.