ISM Manufacturing PMI - November 2026: live odds and probabilities
The market favorite is 55.0 to 55.9 at 28.0%, ahead of 54.0 to 54.9 at 26.5%. $5K traded across 9 outcomes.
Favorite
24h move
Volume
Closes
All outcomes
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| 55.0 to 55.9 | 28.0% | +12.0 |
| 54.0 to 54.9 | 26.5% | -6.5 |
| 58.0 to 58.9 | 22.5% | -1.8 |
| 53.0 to 53.9 | 16.5% | -9.0 |
| 57.0 to 57.9 | 15.5% | -8.5 |
| 56.0 to 56.9 | 14.5% | +3.0 |
| 52.0 to 52.9 | 4.5% | -9.0 |
| <52.0 | 4.0% | -4.0 |
| 59.0+ | 1.1% | -21.6 |
Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:02 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.
Price history
Market rules and resolution
This is a market about the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for November 2026, as reported by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector relative to the previous month; a reading below 50 indicates contraction. This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Manufacturing PMI for November 2026 according to the monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business. The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business released for November 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on December 1, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Manufacturing PMI registered 52.7 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets. Note: The ISM Manufacturing PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Manufacturing PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
How to read this market
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favored in "ISM Manufacturing PMI - November 2026"?
- As of November 6, 2026, 55.0 to 55.9 is the favorite at 28.0%, followed by 54.0 to 54.9 at 26.5%.
- When does this market resolve?
- The market is scheduled to close on December 1, 2026. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
- How much has been traded?
- $5K in total and $2K in the last 24 hours, with about $5K of resting liquidity.
- Can I trade this market?
- Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.
Related on BetG8
Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.