Who is favored in "What will the median home value in New York City be on December 31?"?

As of November 6, 2026, <$445K is the favorite at 37.6%, followed by $445K - $458K at 31.5%.

When does this market resolve?

The market is scheduled to close on January 11, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.

How much has been traded?

$53K in total and $4K in the last 24 hours, with about $15K of resting liquidity.

Can I trade this market?

Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

Home / Markets / What will the median home value in New York City be on Decem

Live market data

What will the median home value in New York City be on December 31?: live odds and probabilities

Name: What will the median home value in New York City be on December 31? prediction market prices
Creator: BetG8

The market favorite is <$445K at 37.6%, ahead of $445K - $458K at 31.5%. $53K traded across 7 outcomes.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:01 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Favorite

37.6%

<$445K · Trade →

24h move

+8.6

pts · 7d -0.7

Volume

$53K

24h $4K · liquidity $15K

Closes

January 11, 2027

66 days left

Parcl Economy Housing Recurring real estate

All outcomes

Outcome	Probability	24h	7d	Volume	Spread
<$445K	37.6%	+8.6	-0.7	$10K	2.0¢
$445K - $458K	31.5%	-22.0	-2.5	$16K	1.0¢
$458K - $471K	22.4%	+8.3	-0.1	$5K	6.8¢
$510K+	3.5%	+1.9	-1.2	$5K	4.3¢
$471K - $484K	1.7%	+0.3	-3.1	$4K	1.4¢
$484K - $497K	1.5%	+0.2	-2.4	$7K	1.2¢
$497K - $510K	0.1%	0.0	-0.2	$5K	0.1¢

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:01 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

Price history

<$445K$445K - $458K$458K - $471K$510K+

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in New York City, New York on December 31, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for New York City (Parcl_ID: 5372594). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1000 square feet, which is the median home size in New York City. Parcl is set to publish this data on December 31, 2026. If no data for December 31 is released by January 10, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/58)

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying <$445K at 38% risks 38¢ to win 62¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

Who is favored in "What will the median home value in New York City be on December 31?"?: As of November 6, 2026, <$445K is the favorite at 37.6%, followed by $445K - $458K at 31.5%.
When does this market resolve?: The market is scheduled to close on January 11, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?: $53K in total and $4K in the last 24 hours, with about $15K of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?: Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.